San Jose's busiest pair gives up chances at its third pair's rate
Nurse and Kesselring have allowed 3.59 expected goals per 60 at five-on-five, the highest of 24 pairs in the league with 150 minutes together. The goaltending has covered for them.
Darnell Nurse and Michael Kesselring have played the most five-on-five minutes together of any San Jose pair, allowing 3.59 expected goals per 60 minutes across 195 minutes in 15 games. That is slightly above the third pair's five-on-five rate of 3.50 across 175 minutes during the Sharks' opening 16 games. In MoneyPuck's pairings file, Nurse and Kesselring have the highest five-on-five xG against per 60 of the 24 pairs league-wide with at least 150 minutes together.
The workload#
Inside San Jose, the three regular units rank this way by five-on-five xG against per 60, highest first, with Dmitry Orlov's time beside Luca Cagnoni and Nolan Allan counted together as the third pair:
- Nurse and Kesselring, first at 3.59 five-on-five xG against per 60, across 195 minutes in 15 games.
- The third pair, second at 3.50 five-on-five xG against per 60, across 175 minutes during 16 team games. Orlov played with Cagnoni in nine games and Allan in seven.
- Sam Dickinson and Jacob Trouba, third at 2.59 five-on-five xG against per 60, across 184 minutes in 14 games.
Dickinson and Trouba have handled a comparable workload with a much smaller allowance of chances against. Their five-on-five xG share is 47.1 percent across 184 minutes in 14 games; Nurse and Kesselring's is 37.8 percent across 195 minutes in 15 games.
The cost grows with how often San Jose uses Nurse and Kesselring. MoneyPuck's pairings and team files put them on the ice together for 11.66 of the Sharks' 38.74 five-on-five xG against through 16 team games. Across their 195 five-on-five minutes in 15 appearances together, that is 30 percent of San Jose's expected goals against in 25 percent of its five-on-five time.
The scoreboard's suspect#
The goals make the third pair much easier to notice. Orlov's combinations with Cagnoni and Allan have allowed 13 five-on-five goals on 10.24 xG across 175 minutes during 16 team games. Nurse and Kesselring have allowed eight five-on-five goals on 11.66 xG across 195 minutes in 15 games. The goaltending has covered for the busiest pair, while the third pair has paid more than its expected bill.
That gap matters when deciding where a change might help. The third pair has allowed 2.76 more five-on-five goals than expected across its 175 minutes during 16 team games. Nurse and Kesselring have allowed 3.66 fewer five-on-five goals than expected across their 195 minutes in 15 games.
The arguments against#
Four arguments cut against reading this as a verdict on the two men:
- The opposing forwards. Quality of competition is the unread half of this comparison. A pair facing the other team's best forwards would be expected to surrender more, and that matchup comparison remains unresolved. Zone starts are not the explanation: defensive starts account for 59 and 60 percent of their offensive-plus-defensive starts, respectively, against 61 percent for both Dickinson and Trouba. Neutral-zone starts are excluded.
- The sample. Nurse and Kesselring's five-on-five record covers 195 minutes over 15 games. That is a small sample for judging a partnership.
- The previous season. MoneyPuck's skater file gives Nurse a 50.5 percent five-on-five xG share with Edmonton over 82 games in 2025-26, and Kesselring 50.1 percent with Buffalo over 34 games. Different clubs and different partners leave room for a problem with the pairing or the team rather than either player's ability.
- The actual goals. Goals lose games, and the third pair has done more scoreboard damage. Its five-on-five total is 13 goals against across 175 minutes during 16 team games, against eight for Nurse and Kesselring across 195 minutes in 15 games.
The next pairing card#
San Jose recalled Eric Pohlkamp, a right-shot defenseman, from the Barracuda on Nov. 3 and gave no reason. The current roster lists eight defensemen. Whoever he replaces, the chance numbers do not single out the third pair.
The lineup and pairs for tonight in Los Angeles were not announced. What to watch is whether the staff keeps Nurse and Kesselring together, the partnership it has trusted with more five-on-five time than any other.
Sources: MoneyPuck (pairings, skaters and team files, five-on-five); NHL club stats and roster; San Jose Sharks release, Nov. 3.
