Ottawa's seven best chances missed, and it won 5-1 anyway

Ottawa's four goals against San Jose goaltender Alex Nedeljkovic carried goal probabilities of 0.03, 0.08, 0.14 and 0.09 in MoneyPuck's game data, worth 0.34 expected goals combined. None of Ottawa's seven highest-probability unblocked attempts, excluding the empty net, went in during its 5-1 win.

Volume answers the headline. Across all situations, excluding the empty net, Ottawa generated 4.14 expected goals on 59 unblocked attempts against San Jose's 2.44 on 32. The expensive chances went unpaid, including Dylan Cozens wide from 5 feet at 0.396 and Tim Stützle off the post at 0.204, both five-on-three. Ottawa finished with four goals on 4.14 expected. Two nights earlier, San Jose beat Vancouver 3-2 with three scoring shots worth 0.36 expected goals combined.

The crease#

The 34 Ottawa shots reaching Nedeljkovic carried 2.31 expected goals; the 25 missing the net carried 1.84. Ottawa scored four on 4.14 across all unblocked attempts, four on 2.31 among shots reaching him. MoneyPuck prices attempts before they are saved or missed, leaving those measures at odds over his night. Ottawa goaltender Samuel Ersson finished with 22 saves on 23 shots in the NHL box score.

Five-on-five#

Ottawa led 2.43 to 1.55 in five-on-five expected goals, 44 unblocked attempts to 23, giving San Jose a 39.0 percent share for the game. Adjusted for score and venue, that share fell to 35.1 percent because San Jose trailed for most of the night, when a trailing team normally gets more of the chances. During 22:23 of tied game clock, Ottawa generated 1.32 on 25 five-on-five attempts against San Jose's 0.23 on nine. Down three or more throughout the third, San Jose produced four five-on-five unblocked attempts worth 0.11. One game is one game; the Sharks' season five-on-five share is 41.8 percent, 26.67 expected goals for and 37.08 against through 15 games.

The lines#

Marchment, Misa and Sherwood had the best five-on-five expected-goals margin of the four San Jose forward lines that played more than two five-on-five minutes together, 0.59 for to 0.17 against in 6.7 minutes. Smith, Celebrini and Graf went 0.37 to 0.40 in 10.0 minutes; Stenberg, Bystedt and Toffoli went 0.03 to 0.86 in 9.1 minutes. Goodrow, Dellandrea and Ostapchuk finished with 0.00 expected goals for and 0.45 against in 9.8 five-on-five minutes.

Special teams#

San Jose's power play went 0 for 3, generating 0.48 expected goals on seven five-on-four unblocked attempts. Ridly Greig's shorthanded backhand from 4 feet, worth 0.085, made it 4-1 just 39 seconds into a Sharks five-on-four. Ottawa's power play went 0 for 3, including a two-minute five-on-three from 3:46 to 5:46 of the third worth 1.08 on six unblocked attempts. Through 15 games, San Jose's power play stands at 23.1 percent, 12 for 52 opportunities, and its penalty kill at 84.0 percent, 42 of 50 killed.

Against me#

The arguments against this, and the first one is real.

1. The total is not the whole story. Shots reaching Nedeljkovic carried 2.31 expected goals, and four went in.
2. Nine days earlier at Ottawa, San Jose won 6-2 with a worse raw five-on-five share, 34.0 percent. Adjusted for score and venue, its share that game was 37.0 percent against this game's 35.1; which night was worse depends on the measure. Across the two meetings, Ottawa led five-on-five expected goals 6.19 to 3.49, with five-on-five goals three each and total goals seven each.
3. Four of Ottawa's 59 unblocked attempts went in, priced at 0.34 combined. Fifty-nine attempts is a large sample for one night and a small one for a team.

Three stars#

1. Tim Stützle (OTT): the game's most individual expected goals, 1.12 on 12 unblocked attempts, plus seven shots, a goal and an assist, and on ice for 2.88 expected goals for and 0.61 against.
2. Dylan Cozens (OTT): 1.08 individual expected goals on eight unblocked attempts, a goal and an assist, and on ice for 2.57 for and 0.33 against.
3. Michael Misa (SJS): San Jose's only goal, on its highest-probability attempt of the night (0.523 from 4 feet), and the widest five-on-five margin of any San Jose skater, 0.82 for and 0.39 against in 11.8 minutes.

The NHL's order is Stützle, Cozens, Greig, with Greig third for his shorthanded goal on a 0.085 chance. Misa gets my third spot for scoring on San Jose's highest-probability attempt and for its widest five-on-five expected-goals margin, 0.82 for and 0.39 against in 11.8 minutes.

Sources: NHL game data and box score; MoneyPuck game and player data; NHL standings and team statistics.