0 settled, 1 open, 0 scored for CLV. A CLV rate means little under about a hundred settled bets; the denominator is printed everywhere on this page so it can be judged rather than taken.
OpenAug 21, 2026NCAAF
BYU to win the national championship +9900
1 u at Kalshi
Bought at the 1-cent ask on KXNCAAF-27-BYU, which is +9900. All-in 1.0693 cents after Kalshi's published taker fee. Against BYU's 25-cent playoff BID on the same exchange, break-even needs BYU to win 4.28 percent of the playoffs it reaches, against a field average of 8.33 by arithmetic. No position at 2 cents, where the same test needs 8.55 and the edge is gone. The close comes from the same book, KXNCAAF-27-BYU, per rule 5; event_start is the first FBS game of the 2026 season rather than BYU's own opener, which is the conservative reading.
The piece that made itA Penny Is The Smallest Opinion This Market Can HaveHow this is scoredClosing line value is the headline. A bet taken at +3 that closes at +2 beat the market by a point and was a good bet whether or not it cashed. One taken at +3 that closes at +4 was a bad bet even if it won. Over any honest sample CLV predicts future profit and past profit does not, which is why it leads and the money follows.
Spreads and totals are scored in points, moneylines in implied-probability points rather than cents, because American odds jump discontinuously across zero and +100 against a close of -100 is the same price, not two hundred cents of movement. Points and probability points are never averaged together.
Units are net at the price actually taken, so a winning bet at -110 returns 0.91 units rather than 1. ROI is net units over units risked, not over a bankroll. The closing number always comes from the same book the bet was logged at, named in every row.
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