San Jose missed the net 23 times, and the misses were worth more than the shots

San Jose's 23 misses carried more expected goals than its 27 shots on goal, 1.46 to 1.42 in MoneyPuck's game data, in Monday's 2-1 loss to Calgary at SAP Center. Across all situations, excluding the empty net, San Jose produced 2.88 expected goals on 50 unblocked attempts to Calgary's 1.98 on 31.

Twenty-three misses#

Will Smith hit the left post from 8 feet, an attempt worth 0.248 expected goals. Mason Marchment went over the crossbar from 12 feet at 0.195, twelve seconds before Sam Dickinson scored, and over it again from 26 feet at 0.128. Five of the 23 misses cleared the crossbar; one hit the post. Marchment played 21:10 without a shot on goal, and Calgary's skaters blocked another 20 attempts.

At five-on-five, San Jose's 19 misses carried 1.22 expected goals against 1.00 on 21 shots on net. The miss rate was 47.5 percent, 19 of 40 unblocked attempts, the highest single-game rate in 16 games. Through the previous 15 games it was 32.8 percent, 146 of 445; the previous single-game high against Buffalo was 14 misses in 33 unblocked attempts.

Calgary's scorers#

Adam Klapka scored from 37 feet at a goal probability of 0.049; William Stromgren batted in a shot from 6 feet at 0.321, the highest goal probability of any attempt by either team, excluding the empty net. Jonathan Castagna assisted on both goals, and Klapka on Stromgren's. Klapka, Castagna and Stromgren occupied the bottom three places by ice time among Calgary's twelve forwards, at 11:36, 9:53 and 8:34.

Dickinson's first goal of the season, worth 0.210, cut it to 2-1 at 11:57 of the third. MoneyPuck's live model put San Jose's chance of winning this game at 53.6 percent pregame, 4.5 percent after Stromgren and 15.4 percent after Dickinson.

The crease#

Calgary's Dustin Wolf saved 26 of 27 shots carrying 1.42 expected goals; San Jose's Yaroslav Askarov saved 20 of 22 carrying 1.40. Measured on every unblocked attempt instead, the direction holds for both goaltenders: San Jose scored once on 2.88 expected goals, Calgary twice on 1.98.

Five-on-five#

San Jose led 2.22 to 1.66 in five-on-five expected goals, a 57.2 percent share, the second-highest of San Jose's 16 games. MoneyPuck's pair rows had Nurse and Kesselring at 0.95 for, 0.25 against in 15.2 minutes; Orlov and Allan at 0.38 to 0.56 in 11.4, on for both Calgary goals. Smith, Celebrini and Toffoli finished 0.85 to 0.31 in 11.2 minutes, with 16 unblocked attempts to seven. Across all situations, Celebrini won 11 of 15 faceoffs; San Jose won 36 of 58.

Special teams#

San Jose's power play went 0 for 3, generating 0.54 expected goals on seven unblocked five-on-four attempts in 5:15; Calgary's went 0 for 3, with 0.21 on four five-on-four attempts in 4:34. Through 16 games, San Jose's power play is 21.8 percent, 12 for 55 opportunities, and its penalty kill 84.9 percent, 45 of 53 killed.

Against me#

The arguments against this, and the first one is real.

1. San Jose trailed for 45:24, when trailing teams normally get more chances. Adjusted for score and venue, its five-on-five share falls to 53.0 percent, fourth in 16 games. While the game was tied, for the opening 14:36, expected goals were 0.30 to 0.27, on six unblocked attempts to seven.
2. Aim is partly skill; the model prices the attempt before it misses. One game is one game against a baseline of 32.8 percent misses, 146 of 445 five-on-five attempts through 15 games.
3. Calgary's least-used forwards supplied its goals, inviting a reading about Calgary's luck. Together, that trio had one goal on 0.05 expected goals in 6.3 five-on-five minutes. San Jose's season five-on-five share through 16 games is 42.7 percent, 28.89 expected goals for to 38.74 against.

Three stars#

1. Adam Klapka (CGY). A goal and the primary assist on the winner, on ice for both Calgary five-on-five goals, in Calgary's third-lowest forward ice time.
2. Dustin Wolf (CGY). Twenty-six saves on 27 shots that carried 1.42 expected goals; San Jose's 23 attempts that missed the net carried 1.46 more.
3. Michael Kesselring (SJS). On ice for 0.97 expected goals for and 0.25 against in 16.9 five-on-five minutes, the widest margin of any San Jose skater.

The league's order was Wolf, Askarov, Klapka; Kesselring replaces Askarov on this ballot, with Klapka first. The league's second star allowed two goals on 22 shots worth 1.40 expected goals.

Sources: NHL game data and box score; MoneyPuck game and player data; NHL standings and team statistics.