San Jose gave up more shots in every third of October
Shots allowed rose from 26.6 to 30.6 to 35.8 a game across October's five-game spans. Goals against stayed at 17 in each.
San Jose finished October 7-7-1 through Saturday, with 15 points from 30 available and a .500 points percentage. Across its three five-game spans, the Sharks allowed successively more shots on goal, 133, 153 and 179. The month supplied an unusually tidy comparison, with all 15 games played in October and each third ending with the same goals-against total. The final span brought 46 more shots against than the opening span, in the same number of games.
The three thirds#
The NHL boxscores show the offense rising in the middle of the month and retreating toward its opening pace by the end. In order, the rows show a shots-against column that grows every time and a goals-against column that could have been photocopied. All figures below cover all situations; each row contains five games.
| Games | Shots against/game | Shots for/game | Goals for-against | Points of 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-5 | 26.6 | 23.4 | 13-17 | 6 |
| 6-10 | 30.6 | 33.0 | 13-17 | 5 |
| 11-15 | 35.8 | 25.0 | 14-17 | 4 |
The goals against held at 17 while points slipped from six to five to four of the ten available in each span. Empty-net goals against increased from zero to two to three, so removing them makes the gap between the shot counts and goal counts more pronounced. Excluding empty-net goals, San Jose allowed 17, 15 and 14 goals in the successive five-game spans.
Five-on-five traffic#
MoneyPuck's game-by-game file shows the same climb without special teams. Shots against per 60 five-on-five minutes rose from 22.6 to 28.0 to 34.8, across spans containing 252.6, 242.4 and 231.1 minutes, respectively.
Over those same minutes, San Jose's expected-goals shares were 34.2%, 52.8% and 37.1%; the score-and-venue-adjusted shares were 33.6%, 54.2% and 36.2%. The middle improvement appears in shots, shot attempts and expected goals, then largely disappears. The adjustment for score and venue lowers the final span's share rather than raising it, so San Jose leading and sitting back does not explain the drop; the share is 37.1% raw and 36.2% adjusted.
The defensive end accounts for the larger deterioration from the middle span. Expected goals for per 60 fell from 2.95 to 2.17, while expected goals against per 60 rose from 2.63 to 3.68. Across the opening, middle and closing spans, expected goals against ran 2.92, 2.63 and 3.68 per 60 five-on-five minutes.
The opposition count#
The last group of opponents offered little cover for the increase. They averaged 25.52 shots per game on their seasons, below the league's 27.35 across 32 teams. Those season averages include their games against San Jose. Ranked by that measure, the middle group is first at 27.58 shots per game, the opening group second at 26.99 and the closing group third at 25.52.
Vancouver, last among 32 teams at 21.50 shots per game over 16 games, put 25 on San Jose. Ottawa supplied 43 and 35 in its two games in the closing span. The lowest-volume group on season averages finished with 179 shots against the Sharks in five games.
Four in six days#
The schedule opens at home against Calgary, followed by three road games. Minnesota and Dallas occupy consecutive nights at the end of the four-game stretch from Nov. 2 to Nov. 7.
| Date | Opponent | Time, Pacific Standard |
|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov. 2 | Calgary, home | 6 p.m. |
| Wed Nov. 4 | Los Angeles, away | 7 p.m. |
| Fri Nov. 6 | Minnesota, away | 5 p.m. |
| Sat Nov. 7 | Dallas, away | 5 p.m. |
Calgary brings a power play ranked second among 32 teams, with 11 goals in 33 opportunities. San Jose's penalty kill is eighth, having killed 42 of 50.
Los Angeles has the league's last-ranked penalty kill, with 25 kills in 40 opportunities. San Jose won 5-4 in overtime on Oct. 3 while being outshot 35-25; its 28.9% five-on-five expected-goals share ranked third-lowest across its 15 games.
Minnesota averages 30.93 shots over 15 games, third among 32 teams. San Jose allows 31.0 over 15 games, the second-most of 32 teams.
Dallas allows a league-low 2.14 goals per game across 14 games and has killed 44 of 47 penalties. Its 5-0 win on Oct. 5 produced San Jose's lowest five-on-five expected-goals share, 24.0%, across 15 games. That visit also produced San Jose's fewest shots in a game this season, 13 against Dallas's 26.
The standings#
Western teams have played 13 to 16 games, so points percentage is the comparison, and through Saturday San Jose's .500 ranks tenth of 16. St. Louis and Nashville have the same 15 points in one fewer game, and San Jose is fourth in the NHL's wild-card order behind Dallas, St. Louis and Nashville.
San Jose is fourth of eight in the Pacific, behind Seattle's .607 for the last divisional place. A week earlier, through Saturday, Oct. 24, the Sharks had held the second wild card by points and ranked ninth in the West at .542, with 13 points from 24 available.
The arguments against me#
Three of them, and the first one is real.
- Five games is a small span, and Ottawa's 43 on Oct. 22 was the season's largest shot count against San Jose. Removing that game lowers the final span's average to 34.0, from 136 shots in four games.
- The goals have absorbed the shot increase so far. The scoreboard stayed at 17 goals against in each five-game span, a substantial limit on what the rising volume says about results already played.
- The middle span demonstrates that San Jose can tilt the shots its way. That happened against opponents averaging 27.58 shots per game, highest among the three groups of five opponents; San Jose outshot them 165-153 across five games.
Sources: NHL boxscores, standings, schedule, and stats API team summary, power-play and penalty-kill reports for 2026-27; MoneyPuck 2026-27 San Jose game-by-game file and team season summary.
