San Jose played .549 hockey after October, and this October has 15 games
San Jose followed last October's .364 in 11 games with .549 over 71, matching the last Western playoff team's rate over 82 games. This October has 15 games.
Take San Jose's 82 games from last season, cross off October's 11, and read the points percentage left behind. You get .549 over 71 games, matching to three decimals Los Angeles's .549 over 82 games for the West's last playoff place. Points percentage, the share of available standings points, is the measure for every season-to-season comparison here, because the schedule grows from 82 games to 84. October supplied eight points from 11 games, a .364 points percentage.
The shape of 86 points#
Cut the season in half and the improvement disappears. San Jose earned 43 points in each 41-game half, with 146 goals allowed in each. Cut it by calendar month instead and the season stops looking flat.
By points percentage the months rank November, January, December, April, March, October, February. October sits sixth of seven months by points percentage, with enough games to leave a larger dent than February's four.
San Jose's points percentage by month
2025-26 regular season, October through April, from the NHL club schedule. Axis runs from .000 to .700. Games played appear beside each month; February had only 4 games.
November repaired much of October's damage without starting an uninterrupted climb. October's 3-6-2 record included just one regulation win in 11 games.
The returning work#
Among the 27 skaters on Sunday's NHL roster feed, before the last cuts, the 19 forwards supplied 748 of last season's 982 forward games, about 76 percent, and 433 of 533 forward points, about 81 percent. That continuity includes Macklin Celebrini's 115 points in 82 games.
The eight defensemen among them include newcomers Jacob Trouba, Darnell Nurse, Michael Kesselring, Nolan Allan and Mattias Havelid. Seven defensemen who played for San Jose last season are absent from that roster. In goal, the pair remains Yaroslav Askarov (.884 save percentage in 47 games) and Alex Nedeljkovic (.896 in 40), against the league's .896 across 72,530 shots. The defensemen among Sunday's 27 skaters played about 32 percent of the games San Jose's defensemen played last season, 157 of 494.
The arguments against#
- The post-October .549 over 71 games depended on extra time, with 26 regulation wins against 29 losses and a 10-6 record beyond regulation. Across the full season, San Jose went 27-35 in regulation and collected 32 of 40 available points in extra-time games.
- The post-October results still came with more goals conceded than scored. San Jose scored 214 and allowed 244, a minus-30 differential across 71 games.
- Removing a club's weakest month by points percentage flatters its remaining rate, and October was not even San Jose's weakest by that measure. February returned .250 across four games, while March returned .500 across 15 games.
The week ahead#
Judge these opponents by their 2025-26 numbers. Florida opens Thursday, Oct 1, at SAP Center after missing the playoffs; San Jose won both meetings last season. Florida allowed 3.34 goals per game across 82 games, yet its penalty kill ranked ninth of 32 clubs, at 81.0 percent.
Los Angeles follows Saturday, Oct 3, at SAP Center; San Jose went 2-1 against it last season, with both wins coming in extra time. MoneyPuck's five-on-five table placed the Kings seventh of 32 clubs in expected-goals share and fifth of 32 in fewest expected goals against. With their power play 28th and penalty kill 30th of 32 clubs, Saturday's test starts at five-on-five, where Los Angeles allowed 151.86 expected goals across 82 games.
Dallas hosts Monday, Oct 5, bringing last season's second-ranked power play among 32 clubs against a San Jose penalty kill that ranked 26th of 32. Sunday's reported moves put Ilya Samsonov on waivers and Eric Pohlkamp with the Barracuda.
October has 15 games, against 11 last October, with eight away and nine against last season's playoff clubs. A six-game trip, Toronto and Montreal on consecutive nights inside it, runs from Oct 15 to Oct 24.
Where they sit#
Every club is 0-0, leaving last season's NHL standings as the comparison. San Jose finished 11th of 16 Western clubs at .524 over 82 games, four points and .025 of points percentage behind the last playoff place. Across this season's 84 games, the .549 rate translates to about 92 points, and .524 to about 88 points from 168 available.
The October call#
Last October's 3-6-2 across 11 games supplies a concrete reason to doubt San Jose, and this October brings nine of 15 games against playoff clubs, with eight games away. A longer month against that schedule makes the case against the stronger half.
San Jose earns 15 or more standings points in its 15 October games. The case for it rests on the returning forward production, 433 of last season's 533 forward points, and on the rate after last October. San Jose earned 78 points over those 71 games, a .549 points percentage.
Sources: NHL standings and club schedules (2025-26 and 2026-27); NHL stats API team, goalie and skater summaries; NHL roster feed; MoneyPuck 2025-26 team file; The Hockey News and San Jose Hockey Now (Sunday's transactions).
