Two-fifths of San Jose's five-on-five chances missed the net

Two-fifths of San Jose's five-on-five expected goals missed the net in Tuesday's 2-0 loss to Buffalo. MoneyPuck's per-event data puts 0.92 of the Sharks' 2.32 expected goals on misses, leaving Colten Ellis less to do than the chance total suggests. Across all situations, his 23 shots faced carried 1.69 expected goals; Yaroslav Askarov faced 2.90 on 39 shots, excluding Buffalo's empty-net goal.

The misses#

At five-on-five, San Jose put 19 shots on goal worth 1.40 expected goals and missed with 14 worth 0.92. Buffalo put 32 on goal worth 2.21 and missed with 13 worth 0.55. The misses accounted for 39.7 percent of San Jose's five-on-five expected goals that night, against 19.9 percent of Buffalo's.

Ellis saved Michael Kesselring's wrist shot from 5 feet, Collin Graf's from 7 and Kiefer Sherwood's rebound wrist shot from 16. Adam Gaudette's backhand from 11 feet went short. On the five-on-four power play, Mason Marchment tipped wide from 5 feet. MoneyPuck assigned that miss a goal probability of 0.267, out of San Jose's 0.43 expected goals at five-on-four for the game.

The season order#

San Jose's 2.32 five-on-five expected goals rank third in its 13 games. The top of the season by that total:

1. Toronto, 3.10 expected goals.
2. Montreal, 2.88 expected goals.
3. Buffalo, 2.32 expected goals.

The Sharks also matched their season high with four high-danger shots at five-on-five, against Buffalo's one. One game is one game. Across 13 games, San Jose has a 42.0 percent share of five-on-five expected goals and has been outscored 28-16 at that strength.

Forty-one feet#

Olen Zellweger scored the deciding goal 50 seconds into the second period, a five-on-five snap shot from 41 feet with a MoneyPuck goal probability of 0.044. Konsta Helenius and Owen Power assisted; Dmitry Orlov and Luca Cagnoni were the San Jose pair on the ice. Zach Benson added the empty-net goal at 19:05 of the third. Orlov-Cagnoni finished the game with 0.15 expected goals for and 0.50 against in their five-on-five minutes together.

Special teams#

Both power plays finished 0 for 3; at five-on-four, San Jose generated 0.43 expected goals and Buffalo 0.58 for the game. The NHL team summary puts San Jose's season power play at 25.0 percent, 11 goals in 44 opportunities, and its penalty kill at 81.8 percent, 36 kills in 44 opportunities through 13 games.

Against me#

The arguments against this, and the first one is real.

1. Score effects. While tied, Buffalo led five-on-five expected goals 1.21 to 0.69. San Jose's advantage arrived while trailing, 1.64 to 1.55. In MoneyPuck's player-game table, adjusting for score and venue drops the Sharks' share of the game's five-on-five expected goals from 45.7 percent to 42.1 percent.
2. Missing the net belongs to the shooter. Marchment's five-on-four tip from 5 feet went wide; its 0.267 goal probability required no save. San Jose cannot count that chance as evidence that Ellis denied it a goal, and the same applies to Gaudette's five-on-five miss worth 0.223 expected goals.
3. Ellis still stopped all 23 shots. Allowing zero against 1.69 expected goals is 1.69 goals saved above expected, a good night in this model. Askarov allowed one against 2.90, putting his comparable figure at 1.90 goals saved above expected on 39 shots faced.

Three stars#

1. Yaroslav Askarov (SJS). His 38 saves came on shots worth 2.90 expected goals, against Ellis's 23 saves on shots worth 1.69.
2. Owen Power (BUF). He assisted on both goals, and his pair with Zellweger was on ice for 1.30 expected goals for and 0.48 against at five-on-five.
3. Michael Kesselring (SJS). He had San Jose's highest individual expected goals at five-on-five, 0.43, including the wrist shot from 5 feet that Ellis saved.

The NHL's three stars were Ellis, Askarov and Zellweger, in that order. The league has Ellis first; I do not have him at all. His shutout carried 1.69 expected goals on 23 shots, against Askarov's 2.90 on 39.

Sources: NHL game data and box score; MoneyPuck game and player data; NHL standings and team statistics.