San Jose's first regulation win was even at five-on-five until it led by two
Ottawa led the shot count 43-28, but 29 of its 43 shots on goal came with San Jose ahead by two or more. The tied game was close to level at five-on-five.
San Jose's first regulation win arrived in a game that was close to level at five-on-five while tied, then tilted toward Ottawa once the Sharks led by two or more. Thursday's 6-2 finish carried a 43-28 Ottawa edge in shots on goal, with much of that work arriving after San Jose had a lead to defend. MoneyPuck's five-on-five expected goals were 1.11 to 1.14 while tied, then 0.36 to 1.68 with the Sharks up by at least two, each stretch lasting about 21 minutes.
Level, then not#
The tied minutes gave San Jose more attempts without much separation in their expected value. In MoneyPuck's per-event data, the Sharks' 1.11 five-on-five expected goals came on 27 unblocked attempts, Ottawa's 1.14 on 17.
With San Jose ahead by two or more, its five-on-five offense shrank to 0.36 expected goals on five unblocked attempts; Ottawa produced 1.68 on 30. The all-situations shot count carries that same change in the game. Ottawa put 11 shots on goal while tied, against San Jose's 16, and put 29 of its 43 shots on goal while the Sharks led by two or more.
Seventy-eight seconds#
Tyler Toffoli gave San Jose the lead on the power play created by Jake Sanderson's trip of Will Smith. His wrist shot from 51 feet went off an Ottawa player; MoneyPuck assigned that five-on-four attempt a goal probability of 0.035. San Jose finished 1 for 2 on the power play, with 0.25 five-on-four expected goals on three unblocked attempts.
Darnell Nurse's roughing minor offered Ottawa a way back. Collin Graf scored shorthanded 52 seconds into it, then set up Jacob Trouba's five-on-five goal 78 seconds later. MoneyPuck's live win-probability table shows how quickly that penalty became expensive for Ottawa, following Tim Stützle's opener and Nolan Allan's equalizer.
| Moment | Score (San Jose first) | San Jose's win probability |
|---|---|---|
| Before the game | 0-0 | 40.5% |
| After Stützle's goal | 0-1 | 32.7% |
| After Allan's goal | 1-1 | 42.9% |
| After Toffoli's goal | 2-1 | 71.1% |
| After Nurse's penalty | 2-1 | 67.5% |
| After Graf's goal | 3-1 | 86.4% |
| After Trouba's goal | 4-1 | 92.8% |
Ottawa went 0 for 3 on the power play, and San Jose scored twice while shorthanded on those penalties, through Graf and Zack Ostapchuk into the empty net; Ottawa's opening goal came with its goalie pulled on a delayed penalty. Graf and Trouba's goals moved San Jose's modeled chance of winning from 67.5 to 92.8 percent over those 78 seconds.
Forty-one saves#
Yaroslav Askarov stopped 41 of 43 shots. San Jose has allowed 29.9 shots on goal per game through 11 games.
Ottawa's 4.98 all-situations expected goals in MoneyPuck's event file included 2.13 on 27 attempts that missed the net. The 43 shots that reached Askarov carried 2.85 all-situations expected goals; he allowed two, or 0.85 fewer than expected on those shots. Assigning him the entire gap between Ottawa's expected and actual goals would credit saves on attempts that never reached him.
Fabian Zetterlund supplied nine shots, including wraparounds from inside four feet with goal probabilities of 0.29 and 0.31, both saved. Askarov stopped all eight shots he faced on Ottawa's power play.
Eleven games#
San Jose's 34.0 percent share of this game's five-on-five expected goals was its third-lowest in 11 games, and lowest since the 24.0 percent at Dallas on Oct. 5. MoneyPuck's game-by-game file puts Monday at Toronto at the other end, a season-best 62.3 percent five-on-five share in a 3-1 regulation loss.
Igor Chernyshov played 4:54 on seven shifts. His last shift ended at 16:09 of the first period, and he took none after that. Coach Ryan Warsofsky said after the game that Chernyshov will miss "a while" with an upper-body injury, according to Sheng Peng of San Jose Hockey Now.
The NHL standings on Oct. 21 had San Jose alone among 32 clubs without a regulation win; now none remain. Through 11 games, the NHL team summary has the Sharks' power play at 25.7 percent, nine goals in 35 opportunities, and their penalty kill at 80.6 percent, 29 kills in 36 opportunities.
The arguments against me#
- MoneyPuck already adjusts for score and venue, including the trailing team's tendency to push. Its adjusted five-on-five expected goals still favor Ottawa 3.49 to 2.05, leaving San Jose at 37.0 percent of the game's adjusted total. The adjustment recovers three percentage points from 34.0 percent and leaves a substantial deficit.
- The tied five-on-five comparison covers about 21 minutes. San Jose's 1.11 expected goals against Ottawa's 1.14 describe a single game's tied stretch, on 44 combined unblocked attempts.
- Ottawa had four high-danger five-on-five shots to San Jose's one under MoneyPuck's definition. It also won 38 of the game's 68 faceoffs.
Three stars, twice#
Dom Cahill's stars:
- Collin Graf (SJS): scored shorthanded and set up Trouba 78 seconds later, the two goals that took San Jose from 67.5 to 92.8 percent in MoneyPuck's live model; his 0.35 individual five-on-five expected goals led San Jose.
- Yaroslav Askarov (SJS): 41 saves on 43 shots, two goals allowed on shots that carried 2.85 expected goals, and 8 of 8 against the power play.
- Nolan Allan (SJS): scored the five-on-five equalizer at 11:04 of the first, and was on the ice for neither Ottawa goal in 16:34.
The NHL's stars:
- Yaroslav Askarov (SJS)
- Fabian Zetterlund (OTT)
- Jacob Trouba (SJS)
Askarov appears on both lists, first for the league and second here, while the NHL has Zetterlund and Trouba where I have Graf and Allan. Zetterlund finished with nine shots and one assist, and Trouba had a goal, an assist and 23:47 of ice time. Trouba's pair with Sam Dickinson finished this game at 0.20 expected goals for and 0.58 against at five-on-five.
Sources: NHL gamecenter landing, boxscore, play-by-play and right rail; NHL shift charts; NHL standings; NHL stats API team summary; San Jose Hockey Now (Warsofsky on Chernyshov, via Pro Hockey Rumors); MoneyPuck game data, player-game file and San Jose game-by-game file.
