Montreal won at five-on-five. San Jose scored twice on three power-play shots
San Jose fell to a 6.5 percent chance of winning in MoneyPuck's live model. Montreal's five-on-five edge was 0.18 expected goals; the Sharks finished on the power play.
San Jose won in Montreal with two goals on three power-play shots, after MoneyPuck's live model had its chance of winning down to 6.5 percent. Montreal held the five-on-five advantage in goals and expected goals; Macklin Celebrini finished the Sharks' comeback on the power play for a 4-3 overtime win Tuesday. Montreal's Jakub Dobes faced three San Jose power-play shots and stopped one.
Alexander Wennberg was scratched alongside Adam Gaudette and Luca Cagnoni. His last shift Monday at Toronto ended at 16:04 of the third period.
Six and a half percent#
Michael Misa scored his first goal of the season at 5:36 of the third, 11 seconds after San Jose reached its low point. MoneyPuck's live model puts the comeback in the following sequence, with Montreal's score listed first.
| Moment | Score | San Jose's win probability |
|---|---|---|
| Before the game | 0-0 | 32.6% |
| After Cole Caufield's goal | 3-1 | 12.4% |
| Low point, 5:25 of the third | 3-1 | 6.5% |
| After Misa's goal | 3-2 | 20.6% |
| After Tyler Toffoli's goal | 3-3 | 48.7% |
Misa's five-on-five goal brought San Jose within a goal before Toffoli's power-play equalizer brought the model back near even. At the low point, San Jose still had 14:35 of regulation remaining in this game.
Five-on-five#
Montreal did not sit back with the lead. While it led by two, from Caufield's goal through Misa's, Montreal generated 0.83 five-on-five expected goals on 14 unblocked attempts against San Jose's 0.32 on four.
MoneyPuck's game file gives Montreal a 3.06 to 2.88 five-on-five expected-goals edge, leaving San Jose with 48.5 percent of the game's five-on-five total. Montreal also led five-on-five shots on goal 32 to 25. Its advantage in unblocked attempts was wider, 52 to 36 at five-on-five, in the same game. San Jose's five-on-five expected goals by period, against Montreal's, were 1.27 to 1.02, then 0.65 to 1.38, then 0.96 to 0.65. The middle period supplied enough of a Montreal advantage to outweigh San Jose's edges in the others.
The player-game file separates the personnel underneath that total. Sam Dickinson and Jacob Trouba's pair ran 0.47 to 1.00 in expected goals over 17:19 of five-on-five play. Celebrini's line with Igor Chernyshov and Will Smith finished ahead 1.05 to 0.74 in five-on-five expected goals, while allowing two goals in its 14:05 together.
Three shots#
San Jose's power play produced 0.50 expected goals in 3:56 and scored twice on three shots on goal. Arber Xhekaj took roughing and unsportsmanlike-conduct minors against Michael Kesselring's roughing minor, giving Toffoli the five-on-four opportunity he converted at 11:09 of the third.
Collin Graf drew Dobes's interference penalty at 1:53 of overtime. Celebrini scored 20 seconds later, from 31 feet, on a four-on-three shot MoneyPuck assigned a 0.14 goal probability. Montreal's power play finished scoreless on two opportunities over 4:00, with one shot on goal and 0.16 expected goals with the extra man.
Monday's Toronto game had the special-teams result pointing the other way. San Jose led five-on-five expected goals 3.10 to 1.88, lost 3-1, and conceded Toronto's opening two goals on the power play. Across this season's ten games, the Sharks' power play is eight goals in 33 opportunities, or 24.2 percent; their kill has stopped 26 of 33, or 78.8 percent.
The nets#
Yaroslav Askarov dressed without playing after starting Monday at Toronto. Alex Nedeljkovic stopped 31 of 34 shots Tuesday, allowing three goals against 3.42 all-situations expected goals. Dobes stopped 26 of 30 shots, allowing four goals against 3.62 all-situations expected goals in this game.
Ten games#
San Jose is the only club among the NHL's 32 without a regulation win. Its six games past 60 minutes in ten outings lead the league; the league-wide rate is 23.2 percent, or 70 of 302 team-games. The Sharks are 5-1 past regulation, split between 4-0 in overtime and 1-1 in shootouts, with regulation goals running 22 for and 34 against across ten games.
They have held two-goal third-period leads four times without winning any of those games in regulation. They have entered the third period trailing by two or more goals three times, at Dallas, against Boston and on Tuesday, and Tuesday produced the first point from any of the three.
The arguments against me#
- Montreal's five-on-five expected-goals margin was 0.18, smaller than the 0.27 goal probability on Celebrini's opening five-on-five goal. The entire edge fits inside a single chance from this game.
- Including overtime and every manpower situation, MoneyPuck had San Jose ahead 3.62 to 3.42 in expected goals. The whole-game model supports the team that won this game.
- A productive power play deserves credit for converting its opportunities. Tuesday's two goals in three chances came from a unit with eight goals in 33 opportunities this season.
Three stars, twice#
Dom Cahill's stars
- Macklin Celebrini (SJS): Scored San Jose's opening and winning goals and assisted the equalizer; led all skaters in individual all-situations expected goals with 0.85 in this game.
- Michael Misa (SJS): Scored at 5:36 of the third, 11 seconds after the 6.5 percent low point; his 0.66 individual five-on-five expected goals ranked second on San Jose for the game.
- Dmitry Orlov (SJS): Posted 1.39 to 0.80 in five-on-five expected goals over 14:50, the highest share among Sharks with at least ten five-on-five minutes, and was on ice for both San Jose five-on-five goals.
The NHL's stars
- Macklin Celebrini (SJS)
- Juraj Slafkovsky (MTL)
- Will Smith (SJS)
Celebrini occupies the top position on both lists; the NHL puts Slafkovsky and Smith where mine has Misa and Orlov. Slafkovsky finished with one goal and one assist; Smith had one assist in Tuesday's game.
Sources: NHL gamecenter landing, boxscore, play-by-play and right rail for game 2026020141; NHL scoring summaries for San Jose's nine earlier games; NHL shift charts; NHL standings; NHL stats API team summary; Macklin Celebrini's NHL game log; MoneyPuck game data, player-game file, San Jose game-by-game file and the 2026-27 team season summary.
