Analysis

Wennberg and Trouba get the other team's top line at SAP Center

Across the two home games, Trouba played 13:36 and Celebrini 7:30 of the opponents' 24:15 of top-line time at five-on-five in regulation. San Jose's expected goals in those minutes were 0.32 for to 1.51 against.

DC
Dom CahillOct 8, 20265 min read
Every call on this site goes on a public ledger and gets graded. The misses stay up.
Alexander Wennberg carries the puck in San Jose's teal home sweater at SAP Center. The photograph predates this season.

At SAP Center, Alexander Wennberg's line and the Nolan Allan-Jacob Trouba pair have drawn more time against the opponent's top line than Macklin Celebrini's line has. Across the two home games, Trouba led San Jose with 13:36 against those opponents and Allan followed with 13:04, each exceeding half of their combined 24:15 at five-on-five in regulation.

Last change lets the home coach choose his players after the visitors put theirs on the ice at a stoppage. With that choice available, San Jose's matchup order repeated against Florida and Los Angeles. Celebrini played 7:30 of those 24:15 top-line minutes across the two home games.

Two home games#

Florida's top line was Sam Bennett, Matthew Tkachuk and Carter Verhaeghe; Los Angeles' was Artemi Panarin, Adrian Kempe and Quinton Byfield. In both home games, Wennberg, Collin Graf, Ivar Stenberg, Allan and Trouba each spent more five-on-five regulation time against that opponent's top line than Celebrini, Will Smith or Mason Marchment did.

The matchup repeats; the defensive-zone draws go elsewhere. Five-on-five, regulation, Oct. 1 and Oct. 3 at SAP Center. Time against the opponent's top line (its most-used forward trio, counted only when all three were on the ice), and on-ice defensive-zone faceoffs.

Sharkvs. FLA (of 11:13)vs. LA (of 13:02)Total (of 24:15)D-zone draws (of 27)
Trouba5:368:0013:3612
Allan5:537:1113:0412
Graf4:366:4311:194
Wennberg4:366:0310:394
Stenberg4:295:189:473
Celebrini3:383:527:3013
Smith3:393:036:4212
Marchment3:172:446:0112

The order among the forward lines is the same in each game's column. Against Florida's other scoring pair, Sam Reinhart and Brady Tkachuk, Graf, Wennberg and Stenberg again led Celebrini, Marchment and Smith in time opposed during the pair's 11:22 together at five-on-five in regulation on Oct 1.

Two defensive jobs#

Starting in San Jose's end and following the opposing top line were different assignments. Celebrini was on for 13 of the 27 defensive-zone faceoffs at five-on-five in regulation across the two home games; Smith and Marchment were each on the ice for 12 of those 27. Wennberg and Graf were each on for 4 of the same 27, and Stenberg for 3.

The results#

San Jose's expected goals against the top lines were 0.32 for and 1.51 against over 24:15 at five-on-five in regulation across the two home games, a 17.7 percent share of expected goals in those minutes. The goals were 1-2. In the other 72:28, expected goals were 1.94-3.10, a 38.4 percent share in those minutes, with goals of 3-2.

The individual top-line minutes show how little offense accompanied the matchup. Across those home games, San Jose's expected goals were 0.11-1.20 in Trouba's 13:36, 0.07-1.17 in Allan's 13:04 and 0.10-0.58 in Wennberg's 10:39. With Celebrini facing the top lines, San Jose had 0.17 expected goals for, 0.20 against and a 1-0 goal advantage in 7:30 of five-on-five regulation time.

The road#

Dallas had last change Monday, with Celebrini absent, so that matchup reflects Dallas's preference and cannot establish San Jose's. Jamie Benn, Roope Hintz and Jason Robertson saw Smith more than any other San Jose skater, for 5:12 of their 10:20 together at five-on-five in regulation. Dallas's top-line designation was nearly a tie: Tyler Seguin's trio played 10:17 together against the Benn trio's 10:20.

This week's lines#

Celebrini did not practice Tuesday or Wednesday and did not skate on his own either day, Ryan Warsofsky said Wednesday. The coach did not rule him out for Thursday at St. Louis. The injury is to his lower body, and Warsofsky said the club was taking it day by day. Sheng Peng's Wednesday practice report for San Jose Hockey Now had Smith centering Marchment and Igor Chernyshov. Wennberg centered Stenberg and Kiefer Sherwood; Graf joined Michael Misa and Tyler Toffoli. Allan was back beside Trouba, ahead of Sam Dickinson, after Dickinson had taken that spot Tuesday. Warsofsky said the lines were not final.

Thursday at St. Louis gives the Blues last change. Saturday, Oct. 10, against Edmonton is San Jose's first home game since these matchups. Connor McDavid is on Edmonton's roster; his linemates and San Jose's answer to them are open questions. Saturday's shift charts will show who faced his line, who was on for the defensive-zone draws and whether those two jobs stayed split. Wennberg's home baseline is 10:39 of 24:15 against the top lines and 4 of 27 defensive-zone faceoffs, all at five-on-five in regulation across the two home games.

Against me#

  1. The sample can change the reading quickly. Across two home games, the expected-goals deficit was 1.19 in 24:15 of top-line time at five-on-five in regulation, while the actual goals were 1-2. Repetition across those nights establishes a pattern without establishing a standing policy.
  2. The definition selects the opponent before the comparison begins. Dallas's near tie shows how easily a different trio could head the table. Florida's Reinhart-Brady Tkachuk check preserves the order at the top, but it cannot settle which opponents will define the assignment against Edmonton.
  3. Some of the matchup may arise during play. On-the-fly changes give the coach less control than a whistle, and Wennberg's top-line work mostly began without a defensive-zone draw. Across the two home games, he was on the ice for 17 five-on-five regulation faceoffs in all zones during his 26:42 of five-on-five time.

Sources: NHL boxscores, play-by-play and shift charts for games 2026020016, 2026020034 and 2026020043; MoneyPuck game files for the same games; NHL roster feeds; NHL.com (Robert Tiffin, Oct. 5); San Jose Hockey Now (Sheng Peng, Oct. 6 and Oct. 7).

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