Edmonton got one shot when McDavid met Wennberg's line, and seven when he didn't
At five-on-five, Edmonton had one shot on goal and 0.30 expected goals in McDavid's 11:45 against Alexander Wennberg's line. In his other 7:32 it had seven shots, 0.74 expected goals and the winning goal.
Edmonton managed one five-on-five shot on goal in Connor McDavid's 11:45 against Alexander Wennberg, to San Jose's six. MoneyPuck's expected goals model put that matchup at 0.30 for Edmonton and 0.15 for San Jose, with Wennberg's minutes accounting for all the Sharks' shots on goal against McDavid.
Edmonton won 3-1 in regulation, with Macklin Celebrini back after two missed games. In McDavid's other 7:32 at five-on-five, Edmonton led seven shots to none, 16 attempts to one and 0.74 expected goals to 0.01, including Vasily Podkolzin's winner.
The assignment#
San Jose had last change at home. The Sharks' leaders in five-on-five time against McDavid were Darnell Nurse (14:29), Michael Kesselring (13:30), Ivar Stenberg (11:55), Wennberg (11:45) and Kiefer Sherwood (9:53). Leon Draisaitl accompanied McDavid for 17:05 of his 19:17 at five-on-five.
The Nurse-Kesselring pair remained involved against McDavid in both splits. Nurse shared 10:32 of Wennberg's 11:45 against McDavid at five-on-five; without Wennberg, San Jose's most-used skaters were Celebrini at 4:18, Kesselring 4:05, Nurse 3:57, Marchment 3:47 and Smith 3:44, across 7:32.
Podkolzin's five-on-five winner came against Misa, Toffoli, Marchment, Nurse and Kesselring. The largest Edmonton chance in the McDavid-without-Wennberg split was McDavid's saved shot four seconds after Celebrini's tripping penalty expired, carrying 0.31 of Edmonton's 0.74 expected goals in those 7:32.
The remaining minutes#
Without McDavid, San Jose led five-on-five expected goals 0.76 to 0.40 and attempts 25 to 12 across 32:59, while losing the goals two to one: Ekholm and Formenton against, Celebrini for. Across the full 52:16 at five-on-five, Edmonton led expected goals 1.44 to 0.92, leaving San Jose a 39.0 percent share.
San Jose is 3-2-0 with no regulation win. Its five-on-five expected-goals share through five games is 34.3 percent in MoneyPuck's team file, against 47.6 percent across 82 games last season.
The saves and the goals#
San Jose's Yaroslav Askarov stopped 17 of 20 shots in all situations. He saved all seven Edmonton power-play shots during 4:00 at five-on-four worth 1.02 expected goals; at five-on-five, he allowed three goals on 13 shots.
The Edmonton five-on-five goals carried MoneyPuck probabilities of 0.033 for Mattias Ekholm from 48 feet, 0.063 for Podkolzin from 37 feet and 0.115 for Alex Formenton from eight feet. In his Oct. 10 review, Professor Hockey wanted a save on Podkolzin's and did not blame Askarov for Formenton's. Combined, Edmonton's three five-on-five scoring shots carried 0.21 expected goals.
Celebrini played 21:59 in all situations, scoring at five-on-five from Michael Misa's assist, 28 seconds after his own tripping minor expired, on a 0.036 goal probability. His five-on-five on-ice expected goals were 0.48 for and 0.69 against across 18:47.
San Jose's lone power play lasted 2:00, including 1:48 at six-on-four with Askarov pulled, and produced 0.66 expected goals. Edmonton's Tristan Jarry saved Wennberg's deflection, carrying a 0.44 goal probability, during that power play.
Limits of the matchup#
- The McDavid-without-Wennberg sample is 7:32 at five-on-five, with 0.31 of Edmonton's 0.74 expected goals on a shot four seconds after a penalty expired.
- San Jose's six shots to one in Wennberg's 11:45 against McDavid came with Edmonton ahead in expected goals there, 0.30 to 0.15, at five-on-five.
- MoneyPuck's score-and-venue adjustment widens Edmonton's five-on-five expected-goals advantage to 1.60 against 0.84 across 52:16.
A second opinion#
Professor Hockey said of Stenberg-Wennberg-Sherwood against McDavid, "they did an absolutely incredible job." He also said they were not "completely dominant". He disagreed with Nurse and Kesselring's statistical showing, calling them "very good at the beginning of this game". Kesselring was on for 1.10 and Nurse for 0.99 of Edmonton's 1.44 five-on-five expected goals.
Roster#
Brett Leason cleared waivers this week, and the AHL roster feed lists him on the Barracuda's active roster. Adam Gaudette remains on the NHL roster and joined Ty Dellandrea and Nolan Allan among San Jose's three scratches for this game.
Both sets of stars#
Dom Cahill's selections:
- Alexander Wennberg, San Jose. In his 11:45 against McDavid at five-on-five, Edmonton had one shot on goal and San Jose had six.
- Connor McDavid, Edmonton. Edmonton led 1.04 to 0.16 in five-on-five expected goals across his 19:17, and he set up Podkolzin's winner.
- Luca Cagnoni, San Jose. San Jose led 0.38 to 0.12 in five-on-five expected goals across his 17:09, and he was on the ice for Celebrini's goal.
The NHL's official selections:
- Vasily Podkolzin, Edmonton.
- Macklin Celebrini, San Jose.
- Connor McDavid, Edmonton.
McDavid appears on both lists; Podkolzin and Celebrini only on the league's, Wennberg and Cagnoni only on mine. Wennberg's case starts with Edmonton's one shot on goal in 11:45 against McDavid at five-on-five.
Sources: NHL gamecenter landing, boxscore, play-by-play, right rail and shift charts; NHL standings, roster and game logs; MoneyPuck game data and team season files; AHL roster feed; San Jose Hockey Now (Sheng Peng); Professor Hockey's game review (YouTube, Oct. 10).
