San Jose has led by two in the third four times and won none in regulation
San Jose's five-on-five expected-goals share has climbed from 34.2 percent over the first five games to 51.2 over the last three. The shootout loss at Detroit added another failed close to an improving game.
San Jose has held a two-goal third-period lead four times in eight games and won none in regulation. Florida, Los Angeles, Nashville and now Detroit all pushed it past regulation, and the Sharks are 3-0-1 in those four games.
Detroit won 4-3 in a shootout Saturday after Justin Faulk's opening power-play goal gave way to Dmitry Orlov's power-play equalizer, Macklin Celebrini's five-on-five go-ahead goal and Ivar Stenberg's power-play finish for 3-1. Emmitt Finnie cut it to 3-2, Alex DeBrincat tied it with Detroit's net empty, and Lucas Raymond scored the shootout's deciding goal after a scoreless overtime.
San Jose's Alex Nedeljkovic stopped 24 of 27 shots through overtime; Detroit's John Gibson stopped 31 of 34. The Sharks reached 4-3-1 with zero regulation wins in eight games.
The third period#
The lead disappeared without Detroit taking over at five-on-five. From Stenberg's goal at 2:48 to DeBrincat's equalizer at 18:27, MoneyPuck's shot file gives San Jose a 0.65 to 0.41 expected-goals advantage at five-on-five, with nine unblocked attempts to Detroit's seven.
Finnie tipped in a chance carrying a 0.127 goal probability at five-on-five. In his Oct. 17 game review, Professor Hockey blamed Orlov's coverage, saying Orlov should have been covering Finnie. DeBrincat's six-on-five equalizer carried a 0.289 probability after a pass deflected off Alexander Wennberg's skate. Professor Hockey called the bounce fortunate, and later in the same review faulted Wennberg for being caught flatfooted on the entry before it. Detroit generated 0.50 xG on three six-on-five unblocked attempts in this game.
Eight games#
San Jose's recent five-on-five play gives these endings a different context. MoneyPuck's team game files put the Sharks at 34.2 percent of expected goals over the first five games and 51.2 over the last three, with the individual games below.
| Date | Opponent | Five-on-five xG for | Five-on-five xG against | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct. 1 | Florida | 1.08 | 1.71 | 38.7% |
| Oct. 3 | Los Angeles | 1.18 | 2.90 | 28.9% |
| Oct. 5 | at Dallas | 1.03 | 3.25 | 24.0% |
| Oct. 8 | at St. Louis | 2.19 | 2.98 | 42.3% |
| Oct. 10 | Edmonton | 0.92 | 1.44 | 39.0% |
| Oct. 13 | Boston | 2.24 | 2.21 | 50.4% |
| Oct. 15 | at Nashville | 1.78 | 1.79 | 49.8% |
| Oct. 17 | at Detroit | 1.97 | 1.70 | 53.7% |
Ranked by share, the last three games are the top three of the eight: Detroit, Boston, Nashville. San Jose led Detroit for 33:32 of regulation, a reason to account for score effects favoring the trailing team. MoneyPuck's score-and-venue-adjusted five-on-five shares strengthen the same split, from 33.6 percent over the first five games to 52.0 over the last three.
Two lines#
The Chernyshov-Celebrini-Smith line supplied the advantage, with 0.93 to 0.30 in expected goals during 11:36 together at regulation five-on-five. Its unblocked attempts ran 14 to 5 and its shots on goal 5 to 3, with Celebrini's goal among them. Stenberg, Michael Misa and Kiefer Sherwood went the other way, producing 0.08 to 0.55 xG and two unblocked attempts to seven in 7:53 together at regulation five-on-five.
Five on four#
San Jose scored twice on 1.48 xG and 14 unblocked attempts in 7:24 of regulation five-on-four. The overtime four-on-three offered another chance to finish before the shootout, producing no goal on 0.32 xG from two unblocked attempts during the full two-minute advantage. Detroit's power play went 1 for 4 on 0.79 xG at five-on-four, and its goal was Faulk's shot from 57 feet, a 0.039 chance.
The arguments against me#
- The schedule is the real objection. The last three opponents averaged 48.4 percent at five-on-five in MoneyPuck's 2025-26 season summary, against 50.7 for the first five opponents. Those ratings describe last season's rosters; Boston ranked 27th of 32 teams.
- Three games is three games. San Jose's season five-on-five share remains 40.8 percent across eight games and 397.5 minutes, against 47.6 percent across 82 games last season.
- A goalie-side reading exists. MoneyPuck prices shots before their outcomes, so this is no measure of goals saved; Detroit's 27 shots reaching Nedeljkovic through overtime carried 2.01 xG in all situations, and three went in.
Dom Cahill's stars#
- Macklin Celebrini, San Jose: a five-on-five goal, both power-play assists, seven shots on goal and three of Detroit's six minors drawn.
- Will Smith, San Jose: on the ice for 1.26 to 0.44 in five-on-five expected goals and 19 to 7 in unblocked attempts, plus the pass on Celebrini's goal.
- Igor Chernyshov, San Jose: 1.09 to 0.30 in five-on-five expected goals on his shifts (15 to 5 in unblocked attempts), the third piece of the line that won its 11:36 together 0.93 to 0.30.
The NHL's stars#
- Emmitt Finnie, Detroit (1 goal, 1 assist)
- Macklin Celebrini, San Jose (1 goal, 2 assists)
- Alex DeBrincat, Detroit (1 goal)
Celebrini is the shared name, first here and second on the league's list, while my three stars form one forward line. Together at regulation five-on-five, Chernyshov, Celebrini and Smith allowed five unblocked attempts while generating 14 in 11:36.
Sources: NHL gamecenter landing, boxscore, play-by-play and right rail; NHL shift charts; NHL schedule; MoneyPuck game data, team game files and 2025-26 team season summary; Professor Hockey's game review (YouTube, Oct. 17).
