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Prospect Deep Dive

Keaton Verhoeff, the deep dive: he matched a young Cale Makar's freshman line two years younger

GS
Grab Some PineJun 27, 20264 min read
Every call on this site goes on a public ledger and gets graded. The misses stay up.
Keaton Verhoeff, the deep dive: he matched a young Cale Makar's freshman line two years younger

You have the scouting reports, the tool grades, and the honest skating caveat already. So here is the layer underneath, and the headline is a reframe: where Stenberg is OLD for the class, Verhoeff is YOUNG for it, and that one fact changes how you should read everything he did. He played the entire season at 17 as the youngest defenseman in all of college hockey, and his freshman numbers landed on top of a famous name. I verified the big claims, because a couple of them are the kind that get repeated without anyone checking.

He matched a young Cale Makar, two years younger#

This comp is everywhere right now, so I pulled both lines to confirm it rather than repeat it:

Freshman seasonAgeLine
Verhoeff (North Dakota, 2025-26)176 G, 14 A, 20 P in 36 GP
Cale Makar (UMass, 2017-18)195 G, 16 A, 21 P in 34 GP

Practically the same freshman production, and Verhoeff did it two full years younger against grown men. That is rare air. But here is the honest part, and it is the whole story: Makar's freshman year was a prelude to greatness because his SKATING was already elite. Verhoeff's skating is his single biggest question (Elite Prospects graded it a 4.5 out of 9, his lowest tool, and the anonymous scout survey flagged his speed). So this is a production comp at a younger age, not a talent comp. Makar went from 21 points to 49 as a sophomore; that leap is the path Verhoeff would have to walk, and his feet are the thing in the way. Flattering and real, but not a promise.

The record nobody mentioned: 21 goals at 16#

The year before the draft, at age 16 in the WHL, Verhoeff scored 21 goals and 45 points in 63 games. Two pieces of context, both from official sources: those 21 goals set a Victoria Royals franchise record for goals by a defenseman in a season, and they were the third-most ever by a 16-or-younger defenseman in WHL history. A 16-year-old blueliner scoring 21 is an outlier offensive signal, and it pre-dates (and survives) the quieter, far harder NCAA year. He was the 4th overall pick in the 2023 WHL Bantam Draft, and, for what it is worth, a former goalie who did not move to defense full-time until about age 12. He is still relatively new to the position, which is part of why the runway argument is real.

This was not a sheltered freshman either#

At 17, he was an anchor in North Dakota's top four and ran one of its power-play units with that booming shot (three of his six goals came on the power play), helping the Fighting Hawks to their first Frozen Four since 2016. The one fair nuance: he was not the team's number-one in raw minutes (he ranked behind the older D), which lines up with the "not a hard-minutes guy yet" read. But top-four trust and PP1 reps as the youngest defenseman in the country is the real signal.

The honest counterweight (no glow)#

This is the same caution the file already carries, and it matters more than the Makar headline: the scout consensus actually cooled on him this year. In the anonymous 13-scout survey, not one picked him as the best defenseman in a class he entered as the consensus number one, and the questions are speed and hockey sense. The crystallized scout line: "good at everything, not great at anything; a very safe bet to play the NHL," with how HIGH in the lineup he goes riding entirely on the skating and processing developing. And the explicit directive, which the Sharks should heed: do not rush him. The Makar comp is the bull case. The skating gap from Makar is the bear case. Both are true.

What it means for the Sharks#

He is the future right-shot, power-play-quarterback half of the rebuilt blue line, not a 2026-27 contributor. The plan is patience: back to North Dakota, then probably the Barracuda, let the feet and the reads catch up, and target an NHL look around 2028-29 as the window opens. He arrives on a cheap entry-level deal exactly when the cap crunch hits, which is the cap-efficient way to fix the right side and one more reason to bridge the position short-term rather than hand out long money now. The bet at No. 9 is a very young, toolsy, record-setting righty whose floor is "safe NHL defenseman" and whose ceiling lives entirely in his skating.

Bottom line

The thing you did not know is that he is young, not old, and that his freshman line sat right on top of a 19-year-old Cale Makar's while he was 17. Pair that with a 16-year-old goal record and top-four power-play reps as the youngest D in college hockey, and the upside is obvious. The skating is the equally obvious risk, and it is the exact trait that separates him from the player he is being compared to. High floor, enormous ceiling, one big variable, and a hard rule attached: be patient. At No. 9, on a former-consensus-top-D who fell, that is a bet worth making.

Verified: Makar's freshman line (5-16-21 in 34 GP, 2017-18, age 19) via College Hockey Inc. and Hockey East; Verhoeff's (6-14-20 in 36 GP, age 17) via North Dakota athletics. The 21-goal age-16 WHL marks via WHL official (Victoria franchise record) and North Dakota's bio (3rd-most by a 16-or-younger WHL D). Usage, power-play role, and Frozen Four via The Athletic, The Hockey News, and NHL.com. The skating and hockey-sense counterweight via the anonymous scout survey and Elite Prospects' tool grades. Could not confirm and did not state: a reliable model star-probability (defense models are noisy) or his exact ice time per game.

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On the record

Called Shots →
OpenSep 6, 2026

Keaton Verhoeff does not sign an NHL entry-level contract with San Jose on or before May 31, 2027, and returns to North Dakota for a third college season.

The case AGAINST this call is the strong one and it is why the price is short of a conviction. Professor Hockey, reviewing San Jose's July 2 development-camp scrimmage, read Verhoeff as a player whose entry-level deal could come "at the end of his sophomore year," which is exactly the window this row closes in; a ninth-overall pick finishing a second college season at 19 is the standard moment for that signature, and the recent top-ten college defensemen have gone two years and out rather than three or four. FOR the call: San Jose's own most recent college defenseman, Eric Pohlkamp, played four seasons at Denver before he signed, so this club has shown no hurry with the type; the NCAA's new five-year eligibility model lengthens a college career rather than shortening it; North Dakota gives him every minute he wants on a blue line that also carries two other first-round picks; and San Jose has no opening on the NHL right side while Michael Kesselring and Jacob Trouba are both under contract, so a signature in the spring of 2027 buys him an American Hockey League season rather than an NHL job. It resolves off a signature, which a stranger can check in thirty seconds.