Every falsifiable call this site has made about the Warriors, with the full argument behind each one, dated the day it was made and graded when reality settles it. Nothing here gets quietly deleted. A call that missed stays up, marked missed, next to the ones that landed.
7 of these 28 calls carry a price, set by the writer on the day the call was made and shown on the card. None has resolved yet. Every call risks one unit: a hit pays by its own odds, a miss costs the unit whatever the price was, so a safe call that lands earns a fraction and a long one that lands pays for several. The net appears here once ten have graded. The 21 calls made before September 2, 2026 predate the price and are graded held up or missed only.
Stephen Curry signs a one-year extension with the Warriors, not the reported two-year maximum and not a longer deal.
Resolves by Oct 20, 2026
Directly against the reported expectation of a two-year max carrying him through his age-40 season. Term is the whole call: two years, three years, or no extension all make this wrong. It is also the most direct available answer to how much longer he intends to play, in his own hand.
Lajae Jones signs a two-way contract with the Golden State Warriors on or before opening night, October 21, 2026.
-115a hit pays 0.87 units, a miss costs 1.00
Resolves by Oct 21, 2026
Golden State has held Jones' rights since June, he is one of a shrinking group of 2026 draftees still unsigned, and the club has kept the third of its three two-way slots open all summer while filling every standard job. A two-way is the only kind of contract that fits a rookie on a roster carrying fifteen standard deals and $347,568 of room beneath the second apron. AGAINST, and it is real: Alex Toohey's September 9 Exhibit 10 is explicitly convertible to that same slot before the regular season, Dalen Terry is in the same camp on the same kind of deal, and a club this short of flexibility has a genuine reason to carry the slot empty into November and keep the option. Gui Santos spent his first year on a G League affiliate contract rather than a two-way, which is a road this club has used before for exactly this kind of player. This row is about JONES holding the slot, not about the slot closing: Toohey converting makes it WRONG and the slot still closes.
The piece that made itGeorges Niang's New Contract Protects The Warriors Against Georges Niang's FootKlay Thompson does not sign with the Golden State Warriors at any point before Golden State's 2026-27 season opener on October 21, 2026.
Resolves by Oct 22, 2026
The reported interest is real and single-sourced, and it is conditional on a buyout that neither party has begun: Siegel reported August 14 that Thompson has not approached Dallas about one and that Dallas does not want to grant one. The call rests on the arithmetic rather than on the sentiment. Above the first apron by $7,424,590, the only contract Golden State may legally write is the veteran minimum at a $2,449,421 cap charge, and Miami can put roughly $8.9 million of its mid-level on the table for the same player. A club that is third in money and holds two roster spots it has already been linked to three other men for does not win that auction. What would make me wrong: Dallas granting a buyout in the next nine weeks AND Thompson choosing four championships and a minimum over a larger offer from a contender, which is a real human possibility and is exactly why this is a take rather than an assertion.
The piece that made itGolden State's Best Offer To Klay Thompson Is $2,449,421 And Somebody Else's Roster SpotStephen Curry has not signed a contract extension with the Golden State Warriors as of October 21, 2026, the night Golden State opens its season.
Resolves by Oct 22, 2026
Curry becomes extension-eligible on August 29 for up to two years and $136.7 million (Slater, ESPN, August 11; date and salary corroborated by Hoops Rumors, August 12). That leaves a 53-day window before the opener. THIS ARGUES AGAINST A LIVE ROW AND SAYS SO: the 2026-07-27 house call is that Curry signs a ONE-year extension rather than the reported two-year maximum, resolving 2026-10-20. If mine is right, that one is wrong. It is not a restatement, because that row is about TERM conditional on a signing and this one is about whether a signing happens inside the window at all: he could sign a two-year deal in September and falsify mine while also falsifying that one. My reasoning is not a term preference. The most informative variable for both sides, whether the knee holds across a full season after a 43-game year, is unknown until the season is played, and neither party is forced to decide before it. Falsified by any signed extension reported or filed on or before October 21.
The piece that made itGolden State's First 44 Games Paid Both Prices Of Curry's Own Bar, 39 Wins And 42At least one of Brandon Williams, Georges Niang and Dalen Terry is on Golden State's opening-night roster for 2026-27.
Resolves by Oct 22, 2026
Golden State carries 13 standard contracts against a limit of 15, verified on Spotrac's 2026-27 Warriors cap table on August 24, and the only contract it may legally write is the veteran minimum at a $2,449,421 cap charge. The three names are the ones publicly linked to those jobs: Stein on Williams and Niang, Fischer on Terry, the last most likely on a non-guaranteed camp deal. Dunleavy said on August 12 that he expects to carry 15 on opening night. This is a call about IDENTITY and not about count or price, which is what keeps it independent of the three live rows it sits beside: Lombard's 2026-08-06 row on whether the club opens at 14 or 15, his 2026-08-02 row on whether any signing beats the minimum, and my own 2026-08-08 row on the exceptions going unused. All four can resolve in any combination. What would make me wrong: clubs routinely fill minimum spots in late September with a player nobody was reporting in August, and three August names is not three September signings.
The piece that made itKlay Thompson Signed In Miami For More Than Twice What Golden State May Offer AnybodyKlay Thompson's 2026-27 salary, once Miami's cap table no longer lists the signing as pending, is $5,600,000 rather than $6,341,463.
Resolves by Oct 22, 2026
This is me betting against the cap sheet I use as the primary on this beat, deliberately and with the reason stated. Four figures are circulating and they are two coherent pairs, not four guesses: Charania (ESPN, August 21) reported two years and $13,000,000, and Spotrac's pending row carries a first year of $6,341,463, which is exactly $13,000,000 across two years at a standard five percent raise. Amick and Mayberry (The Athletic, August 23, via Hoops Rumors) reported $11,500,000 with a 15 percent trade kicker, and Winderman (South Florida Sun-Sentinel, same day, via Hoops Rumors) itemised $5,600,000 and a $5,880,000 player option, which is the same five percent raise on the lower base. The call rests on which report is downstream of the other: Charania's landed the night the agreement surfaced and before Thompson had cleared waivers, and a pending row on a cap site is that site's own arithmetic off a reported total rather than a filed contract. The later pair was written after the signing was official and carries a trade-kicker term that a derived figure would not produce. What would make me wrong: the buyout give-back was reported at roughly $9,800,000 against a $17,460,317 salary and Spotrac still carried the full $17,460,317 as Dallas dead money on August 24, so that page was mid-update in at least one place, and a site being behind on one row is not evidence it is wrong on another.
The piece that made itKlay Thompson Signed In Miami For More Than Twice What Golden State May Offer AnybodyYaxel Lendeborg is in Golden State's starting lineup for its 2026-27 season opener on October 21, 2026.
Resolves by Oct 22, 2026
Jimmy Butler averaged 31.1 minutes across 38 games last season and Moses Moody 25.7 across 60, and neither is expected to play in October: Brett Siegel of ClutchPoints reported on August 26 that it is probably unrealistic to expect Butler back before early 2027, and Moody has no club return date, with his next update scheduled for training camp. That is 56.8 minutes a night at two positions with nobody obvious behind it. Anthony Slater, in ESPN's Warriors offseason package on August 26, called Lendeborg the club's big addition and wrote that Golden State will rely on him to be a high-minute, high-impact rotation player immediately. He is not a teenager: he turns 24 on September 30, he began at Arizona Western College and spent two years at UAB before Michigan, and he played 1,206 minutes across 40 games last season at 15.1 points, 6.8 rebounds and 37.2 percent from three. This is a call about the OPENING-NIGHT FIVE and not about his minutes, his season or his role in April, which is what keeps it independent of every live Warriors row. What would make me wrong, and it is the likelier half of a coin: Steve Kerr can start Gui Santos or De'Anthony Melton on October 21 and give Lendeborg the identical minutes off the bench, and nothing about the rotation math requires the rookie to be announced before tip-off.
The piece that made itStephen Curry Played Ten Games Without Jimmy Butler Last Season. Golden State Went 4-6.Every remaining standard roster spot Golden State fills before opening night of 2026-27 goes to a player on a minimum contract, with no trade and no salary-cap exception used to fill one.
Resolves by Oct 31, 2026
Filed with the standard roster reported at 12 (ESPN) or 13 (ClutchPoints) and two or three spots open. Scored against the opening-night roster: a single non-minimum standard signing, or a trade that fills a spot, resolves this NO.
The piece that made itThe Warriors Spent The Summer In One ColumnGolden State opens the 2026-27 season carrying 14 standard contracts, not 15.
Resolves by Nov 1, 2026
Arithmetic, not a hunch. Spotrac has the Warriors at 13 standard contracts and $5,246,410 under the second-apron hard cap of $221,686,000 as of 2026-08-06. Two more men at the $2,449,421 minimum cap charge cost $4,898,842 and leave $347,568, which is not enough margin for in-season signings, a hardship replacement or ten-day paperwork. The cheap way out is to carry the fourteenth man and leave the fifteenth spot open. I am calling that they take it. Scoreable off any published opening-night roster: count standard contracts, exclude two-way deals. If they carry 15, I am wrong, and if they carry 13 I am also wrong.
The piece that made itDraymond Green Declined $27,678,571 And Signed For $27,678,571Golden State's apron-basis team salary is still above the first apron of $209,015,000 on opening night of the 2026-27 season.
Resolves by Nov 1, 2026
This is the behavioural half of my own argument and it is the part that can be wrong. The legal analysis is not a prediction: while the Warriors sit at $216,439,590 in apron allocations, the mid-level, the bi-annual and the Jackson-Davis trade exception are all barred, and that follows from published rules rather than from my judgment. What is a judgment is that the club leaves it that way. NOTE REWRITTEN 2026-08-10 by Cam Ellis, claim and resolve_by unchanged: the original note named the routes out as Moses Moody's $12,500,000 or two of Al Horford, Yaxel Lendeborg, De'Anthony Melton and Brandin Podziemski, and that list was built off a roster read that omitted Kristaps Porzingis. Porzingis is on this roster at $20,000,000, his contract is inside the $216,439,590, and he is trade-eligible through the offseason because his June 30 extension does not exceed the extend-and-trade limits, so he is the largest movable route under the apron rather than an absent one. The list was also missing the calendar: Bassey, Draymond Green, Horford, Melton and Payton II cannot be traded until December 15, which is five of the thirteen standard contracts and two of the four mid-sized salaries the original note leaned on. So the call is now made against a wider set of legal routes than I first counted, which makes it a harder call rather than an easier one. I am still calling that Golden State does not pay a rotation player to unlock an exception that would immediately hard-cap it at the line it just crossed under. Scoreable against any published opening-night cap sheet on the apron basis, which is the basis that includes likely incentives. If they get under, I am wrong, and the whole piece was describing a temporary condition rather than the season's shape.
The piece that made itGolden State Has Three Salary Cap Exceptions And Cannot Legally Use Any Of ThemMoses Moody does not appear in a regular-season game for Golden State before January 1, 2027.
Resolves by Jan 1, 2027
Moody ruptured the left patellar tendon on 2026-03-23 against Dallas and had surgery on 2026-03-28. The club's announcement set no return date and said his progress would be updated at training camp in September. Dunleavy said on 2026-08-12 that Moody will not be available on opening night or in the near term after that. January 1 is a little over nine months from the surgery, which is the front edge of a plausible return rather than the middle of one, so this is a live call in both directions. Scoreable from the game log.
The piece that made itThe Warriors Will Carry Fifteen And Dress ThirteenGolden State waives at least one player off its standard roster between opening night on October 21, 2026 and January 10, 2027.
Resolves by Jan 10, 2027
The argument this scores: a club that fills both open spots in October gives up the empty spot it has used to add players in-season, and the only way back to that flexibility is a subtraction. Independent of the 14-versus-15 count, because a team at 14 can also waive somebody and a team at 15 can also stand pat. Scoreable from the transaction log. Does not restate the 2026-08-02 row, which is about how the remaining spots get FILLED before opening night.
The piece that made itThe Warriors Will Carry Fifteen And Dress ThirteenGeorges Niang is under a standard contract with the Golden State Warriors on January 11, 2027.
-150a hit pays 0.67 units, a miss costs 1.00
Resolves by Jan 11, 2027
Niang's one-year minimum is partially guaranteed at $1,838,009 against a $3,876,529 full-season salary and carries Exhibit 3 language protecting the club against further complications with the left foot that cost him all of 2025-26. FOR: Golden State chased a 40 percent three-point shooter all summer, has already committed the partial guarantee, cannot replace him with better than another minimum while $347,568 under the second apron, and gains nothing it can spend from the roster spot. AGAINST, and it is why the number is not shorter: somebody in that front office thought the foot was likely enough to name it in writing, and the club built three separate cheap exits into this roster in one week. Does NOT restate my own 2026-08-14 row about Golden State waiving a player off its standard roster between opening night and January 10: that one resolves YES on any of fifteen men with Niang untouched, and both rows can resolve YES on the same day.
The piece that made itGeorges Niang's New Contract Protects The Warriors Against Georges Niang's FootThe $2,221,677 traded player exception from the Trayce Jackson-Davis trade expires unused on February 5, 2027.
Resolves by Feb 6, 2027
I am putting the least certain reading in the piece on the record deliberately. My argument is that Golden State cannot use this exception at all, because a team above the first apron is barred from using a traded player exception generated between the end of the previous regular season and the end of the most recent one, and this one was created on February 5, 2026, inside that window. If the Warriors use it, one of two things is true: they dropped under the first apron first, or I read the rule wrong. Either way the call fails and it should. Scoreable from any transaction record: if a player is acquired into this exception before it expires, I am wrong. Deliberately not a restatement of Grant Lombard's August 6 call on the 14-versus-15 roster count, which is a different question about a different mechanism.
The piece that made itGolden State Has Three Salary Cap Exceptions And Cannot Legally Use Any Of ThemThe Warriors miss the play-in tournament entirely in 2026-27, finishing outside the top ten in the Western Conference.
Resolves by Apr 12, 2027
Against last season's result, when they finished tenth, beat the Clippers 126-121 and lost the 8-seed game to Phoenix 111-96. Scoreable from final conference standings. Note the incentive this call describes: under the new 3-2-1 lottery, the bad-but-not-worst tier draws the best odds on the board.
Stephen Curry plays fewer than 60 regular-season games for Golden State in 2026-27.
Resolves by Apr 18, 2027
Made in a piece about the NBA scheduling a 37-45 team into two marquee national windows on the strength of one player. Curry's last three seasons are 74 games, 70 and then 43; the call is that the 43 was the turn rather than the accident. He turns 39 on March 14, 2027, in what will be his 18th season. Games played verified against his Basketball-Reference player page. Direction-right-magnitude-wrong is its own verdict here: 60 to 65 games is a miss, not a win.
The piece that made itEvery Team In The NBA's Showcase Finished Above .500 Except The One Playing Last On ChristmasGolden State finishes the 2026-27 regular season with fewer than 39 regular-season wins.
Resolves by Apr 18, 2027
39 is the five-season median win total of the last club into the Western Conference play-in, which is the cheap reading of the bar Curry set for himself in April. The call is that this roster does not pay it: it won 37 last season, it opens without Jimmy Butler and without Moses Moody, and the only stretch in which it played above the line, 25-19 through January 18, was played with both of them. Falsified at 39 wins or more. CHECKED FOR RESTATEMENT against all 13 live Warriors rows. The closest is the 2026-07-27 house call that Golden State finishes outside the top ten in the West, and it is a different question: last season 37 wins was enough to finish tenth, so a club can win fewer than 39 and still make the play-in, or win 40 and miss it in a healthier conference. The two rows can resolve in any combination.
The piece that made itGolden State's First 44 Games Paid Both Prices Of Curry's Own Bar, 39 Wins And 42Stephen Curry's three-point percentage for the 2026-27 regular season is below .400.
Resolves by Apr 18, 2027
This is the falsifiable half of my own argument that Curry's shooting has not decayed the way his availability has, and it is the part of that argument that can be wrong. His last three seasons are .408, .397 and .393, which is .400 combined on 2,144 attempts against a career .422. The direction is well powered across three years; a single season is not, since the standard error on .393 at 484 attempts is about 2.2 points. So this row is close to a coin flip by construction and it is meant to be. Falsified at .400 or better. CHECKED FOR RESTATEMENT against all 13 live Warriors rows: the only other Curry-availability row is Lombard's 2026-08-11 call that he plays fewer than 60 games, and games played and shooting percentage can move in any combination, including a healthy season at .385 or a 40-game season at .430.
The piece that made itGolden State's First 44 Games Paid Both Prices Of Curry's Own Bar, 39 Wins And 42Georges Niang appears in fewer than 40 regular-season games for Golden State in 2026-27.
Resolves by Apr 18, 2027
Roughly two in five. This is the contrarian half and the case against it is the stronger one, so it is stated first: Jimmy Butler and Moses Moody are both out for the opening months, which empties minutes on the wing and in the frontcourt, and Niang played 79 games in his last healthy season. If he is fit he plays, and 40 is not a high bar. The call is that he is not fit for most of it, or is not in the rotation once Butler and Moody return. He is 33, he turned 33 on June 17, and he did not appear in a single NBA game in 2025-26 after Utah diagnosed a fourth metatarsal stress reaction in his left foot on September 27, 2025; a foot that cost a full season at 32 is not a settled thing at 33. Behind Draymond Green, Kristaps Porzingis, Al Horford and Yaxel Lendeborg he is the fifth frontcourt man on a club that has said it wants interior finishing, which is the one thing he has never provided. Scoreable by a stranger off published games played, with no judgment in it. What would make it wrong: he stays healthy and the injuries above him hold the door open past January.
The piece that made itGeorges Niang Missed All Of Last Season. The Warriors Just Gave Him Their Fifteenth Job.Jimmy Butler III appears in fewer than 25 regular-season games for Golden State in 2026-27.
Resolves by Apr 18, 2027
Under a third of the season. The reporting sets the floor and the call is about the ceiling above it. Butler tore his right ACL on January 19, 2026 and the club announced surgery on February 9; Brett Siegel of ClutchPoints reported on August 26 that there have been no setbacks and some hints of being slightly ahead of schedule, and in the same paragraph that it is probably unrealistic to expect him back before early 2027, while Ben Golliver at ESPN called the timing still unclear the same week. If he returns in early February roughly 30 games remain, so 25 requires him to play five of every six the rest of the way. He turns 37 on September 14, he missed six of Golden State's first 44 games last season before the knee went, and the club that holds his expiring contract has a February trade deadline and no reason to hurry him back for a team that went 37-45. This is a call about GAMES PLAYED and touches no live row: Lombard's 2026-08-14 row is Moody's return, his 2026-08-11 row is Curry's games, and his 2026-08-06 row is about whether Butler is under contract in October 2027, which a healthy or an unhealthy 2026-27 could each produce. What would make me wrong: a December return. One reporter has already hinted at ahead-of-schedule and no club official has ruled anything out, and a Butler who is back by Christmas plays 50 games without difficulty.
The piece that made itStephen Curry Played Ten Games Without Jimmy Butler Last Season. Golden State Went 4-6.Yaxel Lendeborg averages more than 24.0 minutes per game for the Golden State Warriors in the 2026-27 regular season.
+110a hit pays 1.10 units, a miss costs 1.00
Resolves by Apr 18, 2027
The piece that made itSteve Kerr Floated A Starting Lineup With A Rookie At Small ForwardStephen Curry, Draymond Green, Al Horford and Kristaps Porzingis combine for fewer than 200 regular-season games played for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27.
-105a hit pays 0.95 units, a miss costs 1.00
Resolves by Apr 18, 2027
The piece that made itSteve Kerr Floated A Starting Lineup With A Rookie At Small ForwardBrandin Podziemski, Gui Santos and Will Richard combine for more total regular-season minutes for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27 than Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler and Kristaps Porzingis do.
-150a hit pays 0.67 units, a miss costs 1.00
Resolves by Apr 18, 2027
The piece that made itThe Warriors Are Counting On The Three Men Who Played The Most Minutes On A 37-45 TeamWill Richard starts at least 30 regular-season games for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27.
+115a hit pays 1.15 units, a miss costs 1.00
Resolves by Apr 18, 2027
The piece that made itThe Warriors Are Counting On The Three Men Who Played The Most Minutes On A 37-45 TeamGary Payton II finishes the 2026-27 regular season averaging under 18.0 minutes per game.
Resolves by Apr 30, 2027
He averaged 15.6 minutes per game across 73 games in 2025-26. The call is that his role does not change, because the roster around him did not change. Resolves at the end of the 2026-27 regular season, against his published per-game minutes.
The piece that made itThe Warriors Spent The Summer In One ColumnStephen Curry does not sign a contract extension with the Golden State Warriors on or before June 30, 2027.
+250a hit pays 2.50 units, a miss costs 1.00
Resolves by Jul 1, 2027
Against the grain and priced that way. Anthony Slater said on ESPN's Hoop Collective on September 1 that he expects Curry to want a decision relatively soon, and Hoops Rumors' August 28 account of Nick Friedell says the overwhelming likelihood is that he re-ups. My reasoning is structural rather than sentimental. Curry became eligible on August 29 and stays eligible until the contract expires on June 30, 2027, which is the same day, so there is no point on the calendar at which the option gets worse and no deadline inside the window at all. Slater also reports that if Curry declines to extend and reaches free agency in July 2027 he can sign for three years rather than the two the Over-38 Rule caps an extension at, with Golden State projecting more than $100MM in cap room that summer. And the only new information either side is going to get is the season itself, after a year in which he played 43 games. NOT A RESTATEMENT, and the nesting is deliberate rather than accidental: Silva's 2026-08-20 row scores the 53 days from eligibility to the October 21 opener and this one scores all 305 days of the window, so an extension signed in November falsifies mine while confirming his. It is strictly the harder version of the same direction, which is why it is priced at +250 rather than at his row's implied confidence. Falsified by any extension signed, or reported as agreed, on or before June 30, 2027. A contract signed on or after July 1, 2027, when he is a free agent rather than an extension candidate, does NOT falsify it.
The piece that made itStephen Curry Has Until June 30, 2027At least one of Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler and Draymond Green is not under contract with the Golden State Warriors on opening night of the 2027-28 season.
Resolves by Nov 1, 2027
This is the falsifiable half of my own argument that the one-year Green deal was written to land in the summer of 2027 rather than to hedge on a 36-year-old. All three are free agents that summer, carrying cap holds of $65,716,516, $65,493,050 and $41,517,857 per Spotrac, which is roughly ninety-nine percent of a projected salary cap for three men aged 39, 38 and 37. If Golden State brings all three back anyway, my read that the date was the point is wrong and the simpler read, that they just kept everyone they had, wins. Scoreable from the 2027-28 opening-night roster. A player who retires counts as not under contract.
The piece that made itDraymond Green Declined $27,678,571 And Signed For $27,678,571Klay Thompson is still under contract to the Dallas Mavericks on October 21, 2026, the night Golden State opens its season.
RESOLVED 2026-08-24: WRONG. Dallas waived Thompson via buyout on August 21, he cleared waivers on Sunday August 23, and he signed a two-year deal with the Miami Heat the same evening, the second year a player option. Terms: $5,600,000 in 2026-27 and a $5,880,000 player option for 2027-28, per Ira Winderman of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel via Eli Cohen at Hoops Rumors; he gave back roughly $9,800,000 of his $17,460,317 salary. Two-sourced on the fact itself at Spotrac's NBA transactions log and ESPN's own news module, both opened in the browser on August 24. The row's stated falsifier was 'a trade OR a buyout, either one', and it was a buyout. The miss is scored in full and not softened: the note named the exact pressure that broke the call, sixteen standard contracts against a fifteen-man limit, and bet the other way. Six days from call to resolution, and the first resolved row on this board. Its sibling row, that Thompson does not sign with Golden State before October 21, stays open until October 22 and is not scored early. Full working in NBA/GS Warriors/state/takes.md. ORIGINAL NOTE FOLLOWS. This is the load-bearing condition under everything else on this beat, and it is the half that is genuinely uncertain. Dallas has had him available in trade talks since the end of May and no extensive talks have been held; it wants second-round value for an expiring contract and has no tax urgency to buy him out, sitting under the first apron with $9,540,015 of room. The pressure that could break this is real: Dallas carries 16 standard contracts against a 15-man limit and has to reach 15 before the season, and a waiver is the cheapest way there. The call is that the Mavericks hold rather than give away an expiring $17,460,317 for nothing, and reach 15 by moving somebody cheaper. Falsified by a trade OR a buyout, either one. This row and the one above it can diverge: a trade to Miami makes that one right and this one wrong.
The piece that made itGolden State's Best Offer To Klay Thompson Is $2,449,421 And Somebody Else's Roster SpotNothing in that column yet.