Preseason

Stenberg scored three, and Celebrini's line had the puck

Stenberg's hat trick led a 10-0 preseason win. San Jose out-attempted Anaheim 16-2 at five-on-five with Celebrini on the ice, in the smallest workload of any Sharks skater.

DC
Dom CahillSep 25, 20264 min read
Every call on this site goes on a public ledger and gets graded. The misses stay up.
Macklin Celebrini, his name across the shoulders of San Jose's teal home sweater, turns toward fans at the glass while an opponent in a white sweater skates past in the foreground. The photograph carries no date from its source.

Ivar Stenberg and Michael Misa finished with four points apiece, Igor Chernyshov with three, and Macklin Celebrini with a five-on-five attempt count of 16-2. The points put the kids on the NHL's three-star list Thursday against Anaheim. The attempts describe how thoroughly Celebrini's line kept the puck in its first exhibition, despite playing the least. With Celebrini on the ice, San Jose took 16 of 18 five-on-five attempts.

The first line#

Sort San Jose's 18 skaters by five-on-five minutes, smallest first, and you get Celebrini at 8:06, Mason Marchment at 9:12 and Will Smith at 9:43. Those workloads, counted from the NHL's shift charts, put the entire line at the bottom. All were making their preseason debuts; San Jose's on-ice attempts were 16-2 with Celebrini, 15-3 with Marchment and 17-3 with Smith, counting only attempts strictly inside a player's shift and excluding change seconds.

These are overlapping player counts, with Celebrini sharing 7:42 with Smith and 7:01 with Marchment at five-on-five. Marchment's second goal came from Smith and Celebrini, the primary and secondary assists respectively.

Professor Hockey called the line "outstanding" despite missed passes in his Sept. 24 review. He interpreted Celebrini's short night as declining to "risk a potential injury" with that lead; his estimate of the third-period workload agrees with the shift chart's two shifts. The with-and-without split gives the short night substance beyond the assist. Away from Celebrini, San Jose took 33 of 59 five-on-five attempts.

The goals#

San Jose won 10-0 at SAP Center, scoring eight at five-on-five and two on the power play. All ten goals came from 25 feet or closer, measured from the recorded coordinates. Stenberg scored twice at five-on-five and once on the power play; Misa had a goal and three assists, Chernyshov two goals and an assist.

Anaheim's Ville Husso was in net for the first six goals and saved 13 of 19 shots; Laurent Brossoit, in for the last four, saved 4 of 8. Across all situations, San Jose scored on 10 of 27 shots, or 37.0%.

Stenberg's company#

Stenberg and Misa shared 9:37 at five-on-five and scored three five-on-five goals between them. The same attempt count that flatters Celebrini's line describes a closer contest during their shifts.

Stenberg's five-on-five count was 11-7, while Kiefer Sherwood's was 9-10. Misa collected four points across all situations while San Jose took 11 of 21 five-on-five attempts with him on the ice.

Special teams#

San Jose went 2 for 5 on the power play; Anaheim went 0 for 4 across 8:00, generating 11 attempts and seven shots. Smith killed penalties for 1:45, and Darnell Nurse took two of San Jose's four minors. At the other end, Alex Nedeljkovic stopped all 21 Anaheim shots, seven of them while San Jose was shorthanded.

The arguments against#

  1. The opponent changes the weight of every count. Anaheim's 18 skaters had 146 NHL games in 2025-26 against San Jose's 689. Two Ducks had played at least 41, against nine Sharks; nine Ducks had no career NHL game. Sheng Peng of San Jose Hockey Now described an AHL-caliber lineup, and Curtis Pashelka of The Mercury News described mainly AHL players on Sept. 24.
  2. Most of Celebrini's edge came in the first period, when his five-on-five count was 11-1 and the whole team's was 27-6, so every line was tilting the ice. Only the second period separates him from the rest: 5-1 with him, 7-13 without.
  3. The samples are small. One exhibition gave Celebrini 18 on-ice five-on-five attempts and Smith 20.
  4. No expected-goals model covers this exhibition. The location evidence is distance alone, without a model's accounting for chance quality. San Jose's median was 24.7 feet across 37 unblocked five-on-five attempts; Anaheim's was 49.1 feet across 20.

Three stars, twice#

The NHL chose Stenberg, Misa and Chernyshov, all Sharks, in that order. My list agrees on one of three, with Stenberg first.

  1. Stenberg. Three goals and an assist, including two five-on-five goals and a power-play goal, with an 11-7 five-on-five attempt count.
  2. Smith. Four shots tied the team lead; he added Marchment's primary assist and 1:45 killing penalties, alongside 17-3 in five-on-five attempts over 9:43.
  3. Celebrini. A 16-2 five-on-five attempt count in 8:06, the smallest such workload among San Jose's 18 skaters, plus Marchment's secondary assist and 6 of 10 faceoffs.

Misa and Chernyshov's points earned the league's recognition; my list gives more weight to the territorial imbalance. With Misa, San Jose took 11 of 21 five-on-five attempts; with Chernyshov, nine of 17.

Sources: NHL gamecenter landing, boxscore, play-by-play and shift charts; NHL player records; Professor Hockey, "San Jose Sharks 26-27 Preseason Review: Game 3," YouTube, Sept. 24, 2026; Sheng Peng, San Jose Hockey Now, Sept. 24, 2026; Curtis Pashelka, The Mercury News, Sept. 24, 2026.

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OpenJul 29, 2026

Macklin Celebrini's $18.8 million average annual value is NOT the highest in the NHL on July 29, 2027. Scored off any active standard player contract carrying a higher AAV on that date, signed by any player on any club, and counting a signed extension that has not yet taken effect. A hit means at least one such contract exists; a miss means $18.8 million still stands alone at the top.

This follows from the piece's own argument rather than from a hunch about a particular player. The upper limit went from $95.5 million to $104 million to $113.5 million in three seasons, which moves the 20 percent individual ceiling from $19.1 million to $20.8 million to $22.7 million. Records set against a rising cap do not age. The two most recent ones prove it: Kirill Kaprizov's $17 million did not survive a full season, and Leo Carlsson's $18 million lasted about three weeks before Celebrini passed it. Against the call, five-year deals at the ceiling are still rare, most extensions of this size are signed in July and August rather than mid-season, and the specific players who could clear $18.8 million next summer are not yet identifiable, so this is a structural bet and not a roster read. It loses cleanly if the league's next tier of contracts continues to land at 16 to 17 percent of the cap in AAV rather than chasing the raw dollar record. Added 2026-07-29, same night, from Leo's audit: the $22.7 million forward ceiling assumes the CBA's 20 percent individual maximum survives the changeover in September. This call resolves on July 29, 2027, which is after that, so a rule change is a live risk to the mechanism the call leans on. It does not invalidate the call, since a higher ceiling and no ceiling both make it easier and only a LOWER cap on individual salary would protect the record. Recorded because a take should carry the assumption it rests on rather than have it discovered at scoring.

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