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November 11, 2026
Penalty kill

San Jose's kill was allowing the chances before it allowed the goals

The chances were already expensive when the penalty-kill percentage looked healthy. The latest stretch made them worse and sent more of them into the net.

DC
Dom CahillNov 11, 20264 min read
Every call on this site goes on a public ledger and gets graded. The misses stay up.
Barclay Goodrow in San Jose's white road sweater, skating up ice with his stick out in front of him and the boards behind him.

San Jose's penalty kill fell from 84.9 percent through 16 games to 76.4 percent through 20, landing 20th among 32 clubs in the NHL's team statistics. The league's penalty-kill table counts all shorthanded situations, and the last four games supplied nine power-play goals against in 19 times shorthanded.

The earlier results had been kinder than the chances. MoneyPuck's four-on-five game-by-game table already had San Jose allowing 9.38 expected goals per 60 minutes through game 16, against the season-to-date league rate of 7.86.

The earlier bill#

MoneyPuck estimates expected goals from shot location, type and situation. Its four-on-five numbers cover San Jose with four skaters against five; the NHL's percentage covers every shorthanded situation.

Through the opening 16 games, San Jose allowed eight four-on-five goals on 12.29 expected in 78.6 minutes. Over the next four games, it allowed seven on 5.16 expected in 24.3 minutes. The early stretch finished 4.29 goals below expectation; the recent stretch finished 1.84 above it.

The chances worsened, too. Unblocked attempts against rose from 90.1 to 116.2 per 60 minutes of four-on-five play, and the expected-goals rate rose from 9.38 to 12.75.

The crowded middle#

MoneyPuck's season team table puts San Jose first among 32 clubs in unblocked attempts allowed per 60 minutes at four-on-five, with 95.7 against a league rate of 74.0. Expected goals against are second-most at 10.02 per 60, compared with 7.86 across the league. Those rankings cover the full 20 games, including the stretch when the NHL percentage looked comfortable.

The traffic has a particular shape. In MoneyPuck's danger bands, San Jose allows the most medium-danger shots per 60 minutes, 51.9 against the league's 37.9. Its high-danger rate is 17th among 32 clubs, at 5.25 against 5.38. The middle band supplies 6.55 expected goals against per 60 minutes, compared with the league's 4.83.

Plenty of that traffic misses the net. San Jose ranks seventh in shots on goal against per 60 minutes of four-on-five play at 56.0, while missed shots get the league lead at 39.7. A missed shot cannot score, but the league average is 24.2 per 60 minutes.

The regulars#

The workload sits with four men. In MoneyPuck's season skaters table, Darnell Nurse and Jacob Trouba lead San Jose in four-on-five minutes at 60.1 each, ahead of Collin Graf at 47.3 and Barclay Goodrow at 47.0. Each defenseman has been on for 58.5 percent of San Jose's 102.8 minutes.

Their on-ice rates describe the chances allowed with them playing, without isolating individual responsibility. Nurse's expected goals against per 60 minutes are 11.54 and Trouba's are 10.16; among the most-used forwards, Graf's are 11.92 and Goodrow's are 10.54 per 60 minutes of four-on-five play.

The arguments against me#

  1. The sample can still move considerably. San Jose's season four-on-five total is 102.8 minutes, and a handful of shots can shove a per-60 rate around at that size. The split's rise from 9.38 to 12.75 expected goals against per 60 came in a recent stretch lasting just 24.3 minutes.
  2. Volume is not danger. MoneyPuck's high-danger rate for San Jose is near the league's, 5.25 against 5.38 per 60 minutes of four-on-five play. Much of the attempt volume fails to reach the goalie; San Jose's league-leading missed-shot rate per 60 minutes is 39.7.
  3. The season does not show a large goaltending deficit. MoneyPuck's four-on-five season table has San Jose's save percentage at .844 against the league's .843, with 15 goals allowed on 17.17 expected. The results remain better than the model's expectation, although the early stretch supplied more protection; the season gap is 2.17 fewer goals, the 11th-largest such gap among 32 clubs.

The older baseline#

The broader rates also exceed last season's. MoneyPuck's season tables put San Jose's four-on-five unblocked attempts against at 83.0 per 60 minutes in 2025-26 and 95.7 this season. Last season's expected goals against were sixth-most among 32 clubs at 7.95 per 60 minutes, against a league rate of 7.37; this season's are second-most at 10.02 per 60 minutes, against 7.86.

Sources: The NHL's penalty-kill and team statistics; MoneyPuck.

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