Minnesota's blitz got seven sacks at Washington and one against Mississippi State

Michigan plays Minnesota this morning at Huntington Bank Stadium in Minneapolis. Kickoff is at noon Eastern, which is 11 a.m. in Minneapolis and 9 a.m. Pacific, and Fox has it. Michigan is 3-1 and 0-1 in the Big Ten after losing to Iowa 20-19 on the last play last Saturday. Minnesota is 3-1 and 1-0 after winning 27-24 at Washington. Neither team is in this week's AP Top 25.

DraftKings had Michigan by 6.5 with a total of 43.5 at 8:12 a.m. Eastern, after opening at 8.5 and 44.5. Its moneyline was Michigan -238, Minnesota +195. That splits to Michigan 25, Minnesota 18.5, with two points of the spread given back to Minnesota since the open.

A pass rush that depends on the other quarterback#

Alex Drain charted Minnesota's win at Washington for MGoBlog and had the Gophers blitzing on 33.9% of snaps. He had the same program at 37.5% in 2023 and 50% in 2024, under PJ Fleck throughout.

Minnesota has 11 sacks this season, and seven of them came in that one game at Washington. Drain's read of the tape is that Washington's quarterback, Demond Williams Jr., stood with receivers open until the rush got home. Mississippi State's Kamario Taylor did not. He went 16 of 22 for 227 yards and three touchdowns in Drain's count, Minnesota got one sack, and Mississippi State won 38-13 in Minneapolis.

Drain names where the ball went, the nickel, Aidan Gousby, No. 7, and the free safety, Kerry Brown, No. 14, both beaten over the top by Mississippi State, with receivers open over the middle. The corners are the better half of the secondary in his chart: John Nestor, No. 17, an Iowa transfer, and Aydan West, No. 5, from Michigan State. The linebacker to find is Maverick Baranowski, No. 6, who leads Minnesota with 28 tackles. Up front, Anthony Smith, No. 0, is the rusher Drain rates, and the one who had 14 sacks last season in his account.

The men to watch, with the numbers to find them by#

Bryce Underwood, No. 19, quarterback. 57 of 92 for 780 yards, 5 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, 8.5 yards an attempt, plus 47 carries for 192 yards. Against Iowa he was 17 of 28 for 276 yards, 9.9 an attempt, his best of four games.

JJ Buchanan, No. 6, receiver. 20 catches for 396 yards and 4 touchdowns, 19.8 a catch.

Andrew Marsh, No. 3, receiver. Michigan's leader in catches, 22 for 239 yards, and Questionable on every filing this week.

Jordan Marshall, No. 23, and Savion Hiter, No. 5, running backs. Marshall has 45 carries for 194 yards, Hiter 38 for 136, and two touchdowns each.

For Minnesota: Drake Lindsey, No. 5, quarterback, 88 of 132 for 951 yards, 7 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, 7.2 an attempt. TJ Thomas, No. 23, running back, 34 carries for 251 yards, though 122 of them came on 13 carries against Akron, one of them a 71-yard run. Javon Tracy, No. 11, receiver and punt returner, a Miami (Ohio) transfer with 24 catches for 281 yards and 13 punt returns for 278 yards. Both of his return touchdowns came against Eastern Illinois, an FCS team. In the other three games he has 9 returns for 111 yards. Michigan's coverage unit has allowed 5 returns for 18 yards all season, and Cam Brown, No. 33, has put 9 of his 18 punts inside the 20.

The X factor: Underwood against the extra rusher#

Minnesota has had two kinds of game against Power 4 offenses this season, and the quarterback across from it chose which one. The one who held the ball got sacked seven times and lost. The one who threw it on time into the middle of the field scored 38.

So watch the first third down when Baranowski or a safety comes. Underwood has to get the ball to the space that rusher left, where Gousby and Brown play, before the rush arrives and before he leaves a pocket that is still clean. Drain's own worry for Michigan is that second habit, bailing out of good pockets.

Who blocks it matters. Michigan has four offensive linemen Out: Andrew Sprague, No. 54, the right tackle, who also missed UTEP and Iowa; Andrew Babalola; Ace Hamilton; and Manuel Beigel. Blake Frazier, No. 77, is Probable and Houston Ka'aha'aina-Torres, No. 67, is Questionable. Michigan has allowed five sacks in four games.

If Underwood wins those snaps, this becomes Mississippi State's day, and 25 points looks like a floor for Michigan. If he does not, Michigan is back to an offense that scored 13, 17 and 19 against its three opponents other than UTEP, with six turnovers in four games, four of them lost fumbles, against a Minnesota team with three turnovers and five takeaways.

Availability#

From the Big Ten's Friday report:

Michigan. Out: Sprague, Babalola, Hamilton, Beigel, receiver Braydon Alford, running backs Micah Ka'apana and Jonathan Brown, and defensive end Julius Holly. Questionable: Marsh, Ka'aha'aina-Torres, and the two defensive ends who share the team lead with 2.5 sacks each, Dom Nichols, No. 8, and John Henry Daley, No. 90. Probable: Frazier. Cornerback Zeke Berry, No. 10, and Marshall are not on the report, which under the conference rule means Available. The report carries designations, not injuries.

Minnesota. Out: running back Ryan Estrada, defensive back Elisha West, defensive lineman Enoch Atewogbola, receiver Hayden Moore and four offensive linemen, Brett Carroll, Jaden Ball, Beckett Schreiber and Ashton Beers. Six are Probable, running back A.J. Turner, No. 2, among them.

The Big Ten's game-day update, two hours before kickoff, settles Marsh, Nichols and Daley.

The prediction#

Michigan's defense has allowed 2.6 yards a carry and no rushing touchdown in four games, and Minnesota's leading rusher gained nearly half his yards against Akron. Michigan's offense has to beat a blitz with a patched right side.

Michigan 24, Minnesota 16. Underwood finds the middle often enough to make the blitz expensive, and Michigan's defense keeps Minnesota kicking field goals.

Sources: mgoblue.com schedule and roster pages and gophersports.com schedule and roster pages, opened October 3; the Big Ten's football availability reports page, opened October 3; CollegeFootballData game, media, season-stat, player-stat, rankings and lines feeds for 2026, the lines at 8:12 a.m. Eastern October 3; MGoBlog (Alex Drain), "Fee Fi Foe Film: Minnesota Defense 2026," October 2.