Tommy Carr's first start is against a team that almost never gives the ball back

Michigan plays Indiana this morning at Michigan Stadium. Kickoff is at noon Eastern, 9 a.m. Pacific, and Fox has it. Michigan is 4-2 and 1-2 in the Big Ten after beating Penn State 21-18 last Saturday, and it is unranked. Indiana, the defending national champion, is 6-1 and 3-1, sixth in both the AP and coaches polls, and coming off its first loss, 19-15 at home to Ohio State.

DraftKings had Indiana by 7.5 with a total of 42.5 at 5:43 a.m. Eastern. The moneyline was Indiana -298, Michigan +240, and the spread opened at 6. Those numbers split to about Indiana 25, Michigan 17.5. Michigan has scored more than 21 points once this season, 52 against UTEP.

The quarterback#

Tommy Carr, a true freshman, is expected to make his first start. On3's Pete Nakos reported it Tuesday, and other outlets followed. Michigan has not announced it. Kyle Whittingham said Monday that the staff knew its plan and was "not going to tip our hand to the opponent," and that he has never been big on playing two quarterbacks.

Carr replaced Bryce Underwood at halftime against Penn State, after Underwood threw two interceptions in the first half. Carr was 5 of 7 for 47 yards and ran for the touchdown that made it 21-11. For the season he is 7 of 9 for 70 yards and a touchdown, with 6 carries for 54 yards, a sack counted. "There's not a quarterback that I've ever been around that studies any more than Tommy Carr," Whittingham said. Whittingham said the staff did not lose confidence in Underwood.

Where Michigan's points have come from#

Michigan had the ball 12 times against Penn State. It scored three touchdowns, and each of those possessions began with a Penn State turnover. The other nine produced nothing. Michigan's defense has forced eight turnovers in six games, six interceptions and two fumbles.

Indiana does not turn the ball over. It has three giveaways in seven games, all of them fumbles, and two of the three came against Ohio State. Josh Hoover is 108 of 169 for 1,660 yards and 18 touchdowns without an interception.

SP+ rates the two defenses tied for second nationally. Indiana has allowed 90 points in seven games, and opponents have run 232 times for 528 yards against it, 2.3 a carry with sacks counted. It has 24 sacks. Michigan's offense ranks 75th in the same ratings.

The men to watch, with the numbers to find them by#

Tommy Carr, No. 14, quarterback. First start.

Jordan Marshall, No. 23, and Savion Hiter, No. 5, running backs. Marshall has 69 carries for 293 yards and Hiter 57 for 223. Hiter ran 11 times for 78 against Penn State. Bryson Kuzdzal, No. 24, had the 43-yard touchdown.

JJ Buchanan, No. 6, receiver. 27 catches for 482 yards and 4 touchdowns. Andrew Marsh, No. 3, has 28 for 289.

Chris Bracy, No. 7, safety. An interception, a sack and a forced fumble against Penn State. Troy Bowles, No. 18, linebacker, leads Michigan with 50 tackles.

For Indiana: Josh Hoover, No. 10, quarterback, a transfer from TCU. Turbo Richard, No. 1, running back, has 87 carries for 643 yards, 7.4 a carry. Lee Beebe Jr., No. 29, has 107 for 575. Charlie Becker, No. 80, receiver, has 39 catches for 694 yards and 8 touchdowns. Nick Marsh, No. 11, from Detroit by way of Michigan State, has 32 for 585 and 7.

On defense, Tobi Osunsanmi, No. 12, defensive lineman, has 7 sacks and 11.5 tackles for loss. Amare Ferrell, No. 1, defensive back, has 2 interceptions.

The X factor: Michigan's run defense against Richard and Beebe#

Indiana's offense has scored 20 and 15 in its last two games. In both, its run game stopped. It ran 22 times for 65 yards at Nebraska and 29 times for 73 against Ohio State, sacks included, after running for 271 against Northwestern and 329 at Rutgers. Indiana threw 40 times against Ohio State, its most in any game this season, and lost.

Michigan's defense has allowed 538 rushing yards on 201 carries, 2.7 a carry with sacks counted. Penn State ran 30 times for 65 a week ago.

What has to happen is for Michigan to hold Richard and Beebe near what Nebraska and Ohio State did, so that Indiana is throwing on third down. Hoover has not thrown an interception in 169 attempts. Third-and-long is where Michigan's best chance at one sits, and Michigan's offense has needed one. If Indiana runs for 200, Hoover throws on his own terms, the giveaway does not come, and Michigan's offense has to drive the length of the field against a defense SP+ rates tied for second, with a freshman at quarterback.

Availability#

From the Big Ten's Friday report:

Michigan. Out: receivers Kendrick Bell and Braydon Alford, tight end Mason Bonner, running back Micah Ka'apana, defensive end Julius Holly and offensive linemen Ace Hamilton and Andrew Sprague. Questionable: safety Rod Moore Jr., No. 1, who intercepted Penn State's first pass of the second half; defensive end Dom Nichols, No. 8; linebacker Aisea Moa, No. 13; defensive tackle Enow Etta, No. 17; and offensive linemen Jake Guarnera, No. 53, Brady Norton, No. 70, and Blake Frazier, No. 77. Guarnera and Frazier both started against Penn State. Probable: lineman Andrew Babalola, No. 65.

Indiana. No players listed.

The report carries designations, not injuries. The game-day update posts two hours before kickoff.

The prediction#

Michigan's defense is good enough to keep this close, and Indiana's last two games say its offense can be slowed. Michigan's offense has not shown it can score without being handed the ball, and Indiana has handed it over three times all season.

Indiana 20, Michigan 13. Michigan holds the run game near what Nebraska and Ohio State did, gets no takeaway, and a freshman's first start against a defense with 24 sacks produces one touchdown.

Sources: mgoblue.com schedule and roster pages and iuhoosiers.com roster page, opened October 24; the Big Ten's football availability report, Friday edition, opened October 24; CollegeFootballData game, media, team-game, season-stat, player-stat, rankings and lines feeds for 2026, the lines at 5:43 a.m. Eastern October 24; ESPN game summary for Indiana at Michigan, October 24; SP+ via CollegeFootballData, October 21; Sports Illustrated (Jason B. Hirschhorn), October 19 and October 20, for Whittingham's Monday remarks and On3's report; Michigan's postgame notes and box score, Penn State at Michigan, October 17.