Penn State allowed six 20-yard runs in a night, and Michigan has one all season

Michigan plays Penn State this afternoon at Michigan Stadium. Kickoff is at 3:30 p.m. Eastern, 12:30 Pacific, and CBS has it. Michigan is 3-2 and 0-2 in the Big Ten after losing 20-19 to Iowa and 20-14 at Minnesota, and it is coming off a bye. Penn State is 3-3 and 0-3, with losses to Wisconsin and USC at home and at Northwestern. Neither team is in this week's AP Top 25. Both are coached by men in their first season at their schools, Kyle Whittingham and Matt Campbell.

DraftKings had Michigan by 6.5 with a total of 42.5 at 8:13 a.m. Eastern. The moneyline was Michigan -230, Penn State +190. Those numbers split to about Michigan 24.5, Penn State 18. Michigan has scored 19 and 14 in its two Big Ten games.

The run that has not happened#

Michigan has run the ball 176 times this season, sacks included, and one of those runs has gone for 20 yards or more: Bryce Underwood's 38-yard touchdown against Oklahoma in week two. Its running backs have carried 111 times. The longest is Jordan Marshall's 17 yards against Iowa.

Penn State's run defense has been two different things in Big Ten play. Northwestern ran for 413 yards on it on October 2 and had six runs of 20 yards or more that night, three of them by Joseph Himon II. Wisconsin and USC ran 58 times between them and had none. Their longest went for 17 and 16.

Alex Drain charted Penn State's defense for MGoBlog this week and calls its run defense the matchup of the game. On the Northwestern film he saw defensive tackles shooting upfield, linebackers blocked too easily and safeties missing tackles. He rates the corners as the strength of the secondary and the safeties as its weak spot: Marcus Neal Jr., All-Big 12 last season, was benched, and Zion Tracy moved from nickel to safety.

The men to watch, with the numbers to find them by#

Bryce Underwood, No. 19, quarterback. 67 of 113 for 881 yards, 5 touchdowns and 4 interceptions, plus 57 carries for 212 yards with sacks counted.

Jordan Marshall, No. 23, and Savion Hiter, No. 5, running backs. Marshall has 55 carries for 244 yards, Hiter 46 for 145.

JJ Buchanan, No. 6, receiver. 24 catches for 446 yards and 4 touchdowns, 18.6 a catch. Andrew Marsh, No. 3, has 25 for 268 and is Probable.

For Penn State: Rocco Becht, No. 3, quarterback, who followed Campbell from Iowa State. Against Marshall, Temple and Buffalo he was 45 of 64 for 751 yards, 11.7 a throw. In three Big Ten games he is 59 of 102 for 646, 6.3 a throw, with 2 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. Chase Sowell, No. 0, receiver, leads the team with 23 catches for 359 yards and is Probable. Benjamin Brahmer, No. 18, tight end, 6-foot-7, has 17 catches and 3 touchdowns. James Peoples, No. 1, and Carson Hansen, No. 21, split the carries, 52 for 232 and 57 for 227.

On defense, Tony Rojas, No. 13, linebacker, has 44 tackles, 8.5 for loss, 4 sacks and 2 interceptions. Drain saw few true blitzes against Wisconsin and calls Rojas, sent on simulated pressures while an end drops into coverage, Penn State's best pass-rush weapon. Audavion Collins, No. 2, and Daryus Dixson, No. 5, are the corners.

The X factor: Marshall past the second level#

Michigan's defense has not allowed more than 20 points in a game. Iowa's 20 included a 99-yard kickoff return, and Minnesota scored 13 of its 20 on drives of 4, 34 and 35 yards after turnovers. Opponents have run 171 times for 473 yards, 2.8 a carry with sacks counted. Penn State scored 20 against Wisconsin, seven of them on an interception return, then 13 against Northwestern and 23 against USC.

Penn State's offense is unlikely to run away from that defense. The question is whether Michigan can score enough, and it has 33 points in two Big Ten games. Marshall has the most carries of Michigan's backs. What has to happen is one run that gets past Rojas and the second level into a secondary that has been reshuffled, the thing Northwestern did six times in one night and Wisconsin and USC never did.

If it happens once, it is the kind of play that turns a field-goal drive into a touchdown, and it changes where Penn State's safeties have to stand on every snap after it. If it never happens, Michigan is back to the offense that gained 180 yards at Minnesota, and an 18-point Penn State afternoon is enough.

Availability#

From the Big Ten's Friday report:

Michigan. Out: receiver Braydon Alford, running back Micah Ka'apana, defensive end Julius Holly and offensive linemen Ace Hamilton and Andrew Sprague. Doubtful: receiver Kendrick Bell. Questionable: center Jake Guarnera, No. 53, Brady Norton, No. 70, and Andrew Babalola, No. 65, all offensive linemen; linebacker Aisea Moa; and the two defensive ends tied for the team lead with 2.5 sacks each, Dom Nichols, No. 8, and John Henry Daley, No. 90. Probable: Marsh and lineman Nathan Efobi, No. 55.

Penn State. Out: 13 players, among them receiver Koby Howard and linebacker Alex Tatsch. Howard has 12 catches for 344 yards, every one of them against Marshall, Temple and Buffalo. Probable: Sowell, defensive end Yvan Kemajou, linebacker Cam Smith and defensive tackle Armstrong Nnodim.

The report carries designations, not injuries. The game-day update posts two hours before kickoff and settles the three linemen and the two ends.

The prediction#

Penn State's offense needs Becht to throw well against a defense that has allowed 5.7 yards a throw, and he has not done that against Big Ten teams other than USC. Michigan's offense needs one thing it has not had.

Michigan 20, Penn State 13. Michigan's defense holds Penn State to what Wisconsin and Northwestern did, and Michigan gets one run past the linebackers and not much else.

Sources: mgoblue.com schedule and roster pages and gopsusports.com roster page, opened October 17; the Big Ten's football availability report, Friday edition, opened October 17; CollegeFootballData game, media, season-stat, player-stat, team-game, play-by-play, rankings and lines feeds for 2026, the lines at 8:13 a.m. Eastern October 17; MGoBlog (Alex Drain), "Fee Fi Foe Film: Penn State Offense 2026," October 15, and "Fee Fi Foe Film: Penn State Defense 2026," October 16.