Iowa has one ranked team left to play, and Michigan has four

Iowa beat Michigan by a point on Saturday, and on Sunday the poll moved them in opposite directions. Iowa rose from 17th to 14th in the Associated Press poll. Michigan, which had been 18th, left the Top 25.

It has 54 poll points, sixth among the teams outside the 25. A week ago it had 432. In the preseason ballot it had 718, so after four games and three wins Michigan holds 7.5% of the support it started with. This is the second time this season the AP voters have dropped it. The first came after a 13-12 win over Western Michigan. The coaches were kinder and moved it from 18th to 24th, with 166 points.

The voters are reading a thin file. The three teams Michigan has beaten are a combined 5-7. Oklahoma, which was 11th when it lost in Ann Arbor, lost 41-13 at Georgia on Saturday and is 2-2. Western Michigan is 2-2. UTEP is 1-3. None of them received a vote in this week's AP poll.

A poll in the last week of September is still mostly a preseason guess with four results attached, and Michigan's four results are three wins that have lost value and a loss at home. The more useful reading of where Michigan stands is what is left to play, and what the last two seasons say a team in its position has to do with it.

Four ranked teams, two on the road#

Six Big Ten teams are in this week's AP Top 25. Penn State, 13th a week ago, lost at home to Wisconsin and dropped out alongside Michigan. UCLA, 4-0, came in at 23rd. Here are those six and Michigan, with the ranked conference opponents each still has to play and what those opponents are worth in poll points.

Michigan and Ohio State each have four ranked conference games left, and Michigan's four are worth 417 more poll points. By poll points it has the heaviest remaining schedule of the seven, and it is the one team of the seven that is not ranked.

Iowa is at the other end. Its one ranked opponent is Ohio State, which comes to Iowa City on Saturday. After that Iowa plays Washington, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Purdue, Illinois and Nebraska. It does not play Indiana, Oregon, USC or UCLA. Under the Big Ten's tiebreaking procedures, a two-way tie in the standings goes first to the head-to-head result, and Iowa has that over Michigan for the rest of the season.

The table understates Michigan's schedule in one respect. Penn State, which comes to Ann Arbor on October 17, has 98 poll points and is 22nd in the coaches poll. Minnesota, Saturday's opponent, is 3-1 and won at Washington last week. Michigan's eight remaining opponents are a combined 23-9.

What the last two seasons required#

Michigan has two ways into the playoff, and both have a short history that can be counted.

The first is the Big Ten championship game on December 5, which takes the two teams with the best conference records. The conference has had 18 teams and no divisions for two seasons. In 2024 the game matched Oregon, 9-0 in conference play, and Penn State, 8-1. In 2025 it matched Indiana and Ohio State, both 9-0. That is four berths, and none went to a team with two conference losses. An 8-1 record has not been a guarantee either. Indiana in 2024 and Oregon in 2025 both finished 8-1 and stayed home, so 8-1 has been enough once in three tries.

Michigan is 0-1. To finish 8-1 it has to win all eight games it has left.

The second way in is one of the seven at-large bids. The playoff has had 12 teams for two seasons, which makes 14 at-large bids. None went to a team with three regular-season losses. Alabama got in last year at 10-3, and its third loss was the SEC championship game. The highest-ranked teams at 9-3 on selection day were Alabama in 2024, 11th in the committee's final ranking, and Texas in 2025, 13th. Both were left out.

Two losses has been a coin flip. Eight teams in the committee's final top 16 across those two seasons were 10-2, had not won their conference and had not played in a title game. Four got in: Ohio State and Tennessee in 2024, Oklahoma and Miami in 2025. Four did not: Miami in 2024, and Notre Dame, Vanderbilt and Utah in 2025.

Two seasons is a small sample. The committee has not published a ranking this season and will not until November 3. But the arithmetic from the precedent is plain. Michigan can finish 11-1 by winning out. It can finish 10-2 by losing once in eight games, and that record has been good enough half the time. A second loss in those eight games puts it at 9-3, where no team has received an at-large bid.

November carries the weight#

Last week, three of the five games Michigan would play before the committee's first ranking were against ranked teams. With Iowa played and Penn State out of the poll, the count for the four games still to come before November 3 is one: Indiana, at home on October 24. The other three are at Minnesota, Penn State at home, and at Rutgers, which is 1-3.

The other three ranked teams come in the last four games. Michigan State visits on November 7, then Michigan goes to Oregon on November 14, hosts UCLA on November 21 and finishes at Ohio State on November 28. If Michigan is still in the argument when the committee starts publishing, it will have to stay there against ranked opponents on three straight Saturdays, two of them on the road.

The line may get a body back#

Michigan has used three starting offensive lines in four games, and Monday brought good news about it. Kyle Whittingham said Andrew Babalola, who missed all of 2025 with a knee injury and then had a setback, will begin practicing again next week. "We'll get him back in the fold," he said on his radio show.

Andrew Sprague, the starting right tackle, has missed two games. "There's one or two more things that are going to be assessed or evaluated, and then we should have the clarity we need whether Andrew Sprague is going to become available," Whittingham said on Monday. Blake Frazier, who moved from left tackle to right to replace him, left the Iowa game in the third quarter and returned. Whittingham said he hoped Frazier would practice on Tuesday and that it was yet to be determined.

Michigan started the same five linemen against UTEP and Iowa, the only time this season it has repeated a lineup. The October 10 bye falls in the week Babalola is due back on the practice field, a week before Penn State.

On defense, edge rusher John Henry Daley was hurt on the second-to-last play against Iowa. Whittingham said he expected a clearer picture by Wednesday, when the Big Ten publishes its first availability report of the week.

Michigan plays at Minnesota on Saturday at noon Eastern on Fox.

Sources: AP Top 25 and Coaches Poll for the preseason and weeks 2 through 5, with points, from the CollegeFootballData rankings feed; points for teams outside the Top 25 from the AP and coaches polls as carried by ESPN's rankings feed, week 5. Scores, records and the 2026 Big Ten schedule from the CollegeFootballData games feed. Conference records for 2024 and 2025, the two Big Ten championship games, the selection committee's final rankings for 2024 and 2025 and every team's record on selection day from the CollegeFootballData games and rankings feeds. Tiebreaking steps per the Big Ten's football championship tiebreaking procedures, last updated 2025-09-17. Twelve-team field, seven at-large bids and the November 3 first ranking per the College Football Playoff release of 2026-08-06. Kickoff time, network and sites from Michigan Athletics' 2026 football schedule page, opened 2026-09-30. Whittingham on Sprague and Daley from his September 28 press conference, reported by Nick Durand of Maize n Brew; on Babalola and Frazier from the Inside Michigan Football radio show of September 28, reported by Isaiah Hole of Wolverines Wire. Starting offensive lines from Michigan Athletics' Player Participation releases.