Iowa has turned the ball over once. Michigan has lost four fumbles.

Michigan plays Iowa at Michigan Stadium this afternoon at 3:30 p.m. Eastern, which is 12:30 Pacific. CBS has it, and the radio call is on the Learfield Michigan Sports Network. Michigan Athletics lists the game as sold out. Both teams are 3-0, Iowa is 17th in this week's AP poll and Michigan is 18th, and it is the first Big Ten game of the year for both.

DraftKings had Michigan by 5.5 with a total of 38.5 at 8:11 a.m. Eastern, after opening at 4.5 and 39.5.

That total is the lowest Michigan has carried this season. The same book posted 49.5 for Western Michigan, 43.5 for Oklahoma and 48.5 for UTEP. Split the number the way the market does and it comes out Michigan 22, Iowa 16.5, which is a game of field goals and one or two touchdowns.

Two defenses nobody has run on#

Iowa beat Northern Illinois 40-0, Iowa State 16-13 and Northern Iowa, an FCS program, 55-0. That is 13 points allowed in 3 games, 530 yards, and 198 rushing yards on 90 carries, 2.2 a carry. The one Power 4 offense on that list scored 13. Alex Drain charted that Iowa State game for MGoBlog and had Iowa bringing pressure on 38.9% of snaps out of a mostly zone, two-high shell.

Michigan has allowed 39 points: 12, 10 and 17. Its 3 opponents ran 107 times for 289 yards, 2.7 a carry. Neither defense has allowed a rushing touchdown this season. Michigan's defense has 9 sacks. Iowa has allowed 1.

The turnover column#

Iowa has turned the ball over once in 3 games, an interception thrown by Jeremy Hecklinski, and has taken it away 4 times. Michigan has turned it over 5 times: 1 interception by Bryce Underwood and 4 lost fumbles, 2 against Oklahoma and 2 against UTEP. Both of UTEP's touchdowns came straight off Michigan fumbles.

"The number one thing we're emphasizing right now is ball security as a runner," the offensive coordinator, Jason Beck, said Wednesday, per On3's Anthony Broome. Of his quarterback: "He's put it on the ground one time each game."

The men to watch, with the numbers to find them by#

Bryce Underwood, No. 19, quarterback. 40 of 64 for 504 yards, 3 touchdowns and 1 interception, 7.9 yards an attempt, plus 33 carries for 156 yards.

JJ Buchanan, No. 6, receiver. 15 catches for 266 yards, 17.7 a catch, and 2 touchdowns. Michigan's roster lists him at 6-foot-4. Iowa's corners, Deshaun Lee, No. 8, and Jaylen Watson, No. 3, played every snap against Iowa State in Drain's chart and are listed at 5-10 and 5-11. Drain named that matchup as one to watch.

Jordan Marshall, No. 23, running back. 34 carries for 135 yards, 4.0 a carry. Kyle Whittingham said Monday he is "not at 100%," and he limped off late against UTEP, per MGoBlog's review of that game. He is not on the conference availability report, which under the Big Ten rule means Available.

For Iowa: Hank Brown, No. 9, quarterback, the Auburn transfer, 45 of 62 for 473 yards, 3 touchdowns and no interceptions. Tony Diaz, No. 14, receiver, a UTRGV transfer with 17 catches for 201 yards. Kamari Moulton, No. 28, running back, 26 carries for 240 yards, who missed the Northern Iowa game, per Drain. Iose Epenesa, No. 97, edge, whom Drain flagged as the rusher to worry about against Michigan's tackles.

The X factor: Michigan's grip on the ball#

Iowa gives nothing away and Michigan has given away plenty, so watch the first time Underwood or Marshall carries into traffic, and watch what the ball does when he comes out of the pile.

If Michigan loses no fumbles, Iowa has to drive the length of the field against a defense that has allowed 2.7 yards a carry, behind a quarterback who threw 21 of 29 charted attempts within 10 yards of the line against Iowa State, in Brian Cook's count for MGoBlog. That is a long way to go 6 or 7 yards at a time, and it is how a 38.5 game stays at 38.5.

If Michigan loses one, a touchdown off a short field is 7 of Iowa's implied 16.5 points. Against UTEP that happened twice and Michigan still won by 35. Against a defense that has allowed 13 points in 3 games, it would need more offense than it showed in scoring 13 against Western Michigan and 17 against Oklahoma.

Availability#

Zeke Berry, No. 10, cornerback, did not play against UTEP. He is a graduate student who came into the season with 23 career starts in Michigan's secondary, per his university biography. The Big Ten's report lists him as Questionable on the Initial, Update 1 and Update 2 filings. Defensive coordinator Jay Hill on Wednesday, per Maize n Brew's Trevor Woods: "We expect Zeke back. He practiced yesterday. He'll practice today." Woods also relays Whittingham saying Berry was a game-time decision against UTEP and the staff chose the safer course. Nobody has said what the injury is. Without him, Smith Snowden, No. 3, moved inside to nickel and Shamari Earls, No. 2, started outside, per Michigan's participation release.

Andrew Sprague, No. 54, right tackle, is also Questionable on all three filings. On the Monday night radio show Whittingham put his return at "anywhere from this week to several weeks" and said the medical staff was still working on an exact diagnosis. Against UTEP, Blake Frazier, No. 77, flipped to right tackle and Evan Link, No. 71, played left tackle. If Sprague sits, those are the two men across from Epenesa.

Also Questionable: defensive end Dom Nichols, No. 8, and receiver Logan Forbes, No. 85. Doubtful: offensive lineman Manuel Beigel. Out: Braydon Alford, Micah Ka'apana, Jonathan Brown, Julius Holly, Ace Hamilton and Andrew Babalola. For Iowa, defensive back Kyler Gerardy is Out, and Moulton, running back Brevin Doll and tight end DJ Vonnahme are Probable.

The game-day column, which the conference publishes before kickoff, settles all of it.

The prediction#

Iowa's offense has not faced a front like Michigan's. Iowa's defense is good enough to turn most Michigan drives into field goals.

Michigan 20, Iowa 13. Michigan's defense wins it, and Michigan's offense keeps it closer than the defense deserves.

Sources: mgoblue.com schedule and roster pages and hawkeyesports.com roster page, opened September 26; the Big Ten's football availability reports page, opened September 26; CollegeFootballData game, season-stat, media, rankings, roster and lines feeds for 2026, the lines at 8:11 a.m. Eastern September 26; MGoBlog (Alex Drain) for the Iowa defense and offense film previews; MGoBlog (Brian Cook) for the Iowa preview and the UTEP offensive review; On3 (Anthony Broome) for Jason Beck's September 23 availability; Maize n Brew (Trevor Woods) for Jay Hill's September 23 availability; On3 (Clayton Sayfie) for Kyle Whittingham's September 21 radio show and the UTEP line changes; MGoBlog's transcript of Whittingham's September 21 press conference.