
Neither Willy Adames nor Matt Chapman is traded by the August 3, 2026 deadline.
Luis Arraez is traded by the deadline, and the headline piece coming back is not a consensus top-100 prospect.
Luis Arraez is traded to the Tampa Bay Rays by the August 3, 2026 deadline.
Robbie Ray is traded to the Chicago Cubs by the August 3, 2026 deadline.
Tyler Mahle is traded to the Houston Astros by the August 3, 2026 deadline.
The Giants trade at least four players off their 40-man roster between August 2, 2026 and the deadline.
Heliot Ramos is not traded by the August 3, 2026 deadline.
Sam Hentges is traded by the August 3, 2026 deadline.
None of Willy Adames, Matt Chapman or Rafael Devers is traded by the August 3, 2026 deadline.

The 2025-26 Giants signed nine major league free agents for $70.28 million guaranteed across the nine, and none of the nine came from the top of the market. Each is graded here as of its signing date, on a four-part rubric in this order: need, fit, price and term against MLB Trade Rumors' November 6 and FanGraphs' November 5 predictions, and risk. Hentges B, Foley B-, Houser C+, Mahle B+, Bader A-, Arraez B+, Wick C, Brennan B-, Borucki C+. The winter as a class, graded at opening day: C+. The result grades come at the All-Star break and at season's end.

A process grade asks whether a club made the right trade at the right price at the right time on what it knew that day, and the answer does not change when the players do. The five Giants deadline trades, graded as of August 3, 2026: Tyler Mahle to Atlanta for Anthony Molina, C+; Luis Arraez and Caleb Kilian to Philadelphia for Ramon Marquez and Marty Gair, A-; Robbie Ray to San Diego for Miguel Mendez and Joniel Hernandez, B+; Heliot Ramos to New York for Henry Lalane and Kaeden Kent, B; Erik Miller and Carlos Gutierrez to Boston for Marcelo Mayer, A-. Every source is dated August 2 to August 4. The result gets its own grade when the season ends on September 27.

The mid-season regrade of the sixteen 2025-26 Giants signings, as of the All-Star break on July 14, 2026, off each player's line through that date and nothing later. Arraez, an All-Star at .330/.369/.460 through 402 plate appearances, moves from a B+ to an A. Bader, at .170 in 111 plate appearances and on the injured list, moves from an A- to a D. Houser is a C-, Mahle a D+, Kilian a B-, Hentges a B-. Brennan, Oliva, Ramos and Kennedy, all off the 40-man by the break, are D-minuses. Knizner, signed in August, has no mid-season grade. The class, a C+ at opening day, regrades to a D+. The season-end regrade follows September 27.

San Francisco has stolen 69 bases in 147 games this season, after 68 in 162 games in 2025 and 68 in 162 games in 2024. Buster Posey, the club's president of baseball operations, told Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle this week that he has added running to the pitching and defense he has emphasized since taking the job, and that he has spent two years wanting that tone set. The season number is not what changed. The split inside it is: 27 steals in the first 85 games at a 69.2 percent success rate, then 42 in the next 62 at 80.8 percent. Since July 1 the Giants have stolen bases at 0.677 per game against a league rate of 0.668 over the same span, which ranks them twelfth of thirty after finishing 29th in each of the two previous seasons. Of the four Giants with nine or more steals, Luis Arraez was traded to Philadelphia on August 3 and Casey Schmitt is on the 60-day injured list with a torn meniscus. Jung Hoo Lee stole none in his first 56 games and twelve in his next 78. Fifty-eight major league players have stolen fifteen bases this season and no Giant has stolen more than twelve. Two takes filed.

The Giants moved Mahle, Arraez, Ray, Ramos and Erik Miller and got eight players back, one of whom matters. What they did not move is the story: Adames and Chapman each hold a full no-trade clause, which means the salary relief everyone was pricing was never actually on the market. Plus an honest accounting of six deadline calls filed here on Sunday, two of which were right.

Six named predictions about what San Francisco does before Monday's deadline, each with a team, a return and a stated confidence. Arraez to the Rays, Ray to the Cubs, Mahle to Houston, and one call on a player nobody has written a sentence about all month. Every one of them filed to the ledger before the fact rather than after it.

One of the Giants' two rentals is having a season the components support. The other has the rotation's best ERA and its second-worst FIP. Pricing them the same way is the mistake available between now and August 3.