Player deep dive

Stenberg got McDavid's line before he got a five-on-five point

Ivar Stenberg's ice time climbed from 13:35 to 18:09 in five games, and 11:55 of his five-on-five minutes in the fifth came against Connor McDavid. His five-on-five chance share matches San Jose's, and the tracking shows an average amount of ground covered at a top speed in the league pool's bottom fifth.

DC
Dom CahillOct 12, 20265 min read
Every call on this site goes on a public ledger and gets graded. The misses stay up.
Ivar Stenberg, wearing No. 41 in San Jose's teal home sweater, smiling at the bench and fist-bumping teammates after a goal against the Los Angeles Kings' rookies at the 2026 Rookie Faceoff in San Jose on Sept. 12, 2026, with a Kings player in a white sweater behind him.

Ivar Stenberg's assignments have advanced faster than his five-on-five production. His all-situations ice time climbed from 13:35 in his opening game to 18:09 in his fifth; by the league's shift charts, 11:55 of his 15:02 at five-on-five against Edmonton came with Connor McDavid on the ice.

The 19-year-old has no five-on-five point through five games. MoneyPuck's season summary puts his on-ice expected-goal share at 33.8 percent over 68.8 five-on-five minutes, almost indistinguishable from San Jose's 34.3 percent through those games.

Stenberg played in Sweden last season, with no tracking available there and no previous NHL Edge season. The comparisons are this season's league pool and Michael Misa's own opening five NHL games last season, and five games is the whole sample. The promotion already amounts to an extra 4:34 of all-situations work between his opening and fifth games.

The ladder#

The NHL game log reads 13:35, 15:37, 13:45, 17:21 and 18:09 in all situations. The climb includes a dip, then his heaviest workloads. Across five games he is fifth among San Jose's 13 forwards in both all-situations ice time per game and even-strength time per game, by the league's stats feed.

Sheng Peng reported at San Jose Hockey Now on Oct. 7 that Stenberg moved from the second power-play unit to the first with Macklin Celebrini out. Ryan Warsofsky told Peng, "He's got patience on the half-wall. He can play both sides." Stenberg has played 8:11 of San Jose's 23:29 on the power play through five games, a 34.8 percent share.

Both of his points came away from five-on-five. Both were primary assists, on Tyler Toffoli's power-play goal against Los Angeles on Oct. 3 and Darnell Nurse's three-on-three overtime winner at St. Louis on Oct. 8.

The matchup#

Edmonton won 3-1 on Oct. 10, when Stenberg spent 11:55 of his 15:02 at five-on-five opposite McDavid, by the league's shift charts. MoneyPuck's game file has 0.32 expected goals for and 0.39 against with Stenberg on the ice, his best game by share in the opening five, at 45.2 percent over 15.0 five-on-five minutes.

The chance share#

MoneyPuck's season summary has 1.35 expected goals for and 2.64 against in Stenberg's 68.8 five-on-five minutes, with actual goals at 0-2. San Jose's share without him is 34.4 percent through five games, just 0.6 percentage points above his. His own seven attempts include four shots on goal, yielding 6.1 attempts per 60 minutes over those 68.8 five-on-five minutes.

MoneyPuck's game-by-game shares run 21.3, 41.7, 12.6, 43.7 and 45.2 percent, respectively over 13.1, 14.2, 12.1, 14.4 and 15.0 five-on-five minutes. His last two games are his best by share. NHL Edge places 38.7 percent of his 70:16 at even strength through five games in the offensive zone, against a league average of 41.2; his defensive-zone share is 42.2 percent against 40.4.

Faceoff starts describe only part of that territory. MoneyPuck counts eight offensive-zone, five defensive-zone and 21 neutral-zone faceoff starts, plus 49 on the fly, across his 83 five-on-five shifts.

The legs and the shot#

NHL Edge's percentiles describe this season's noisy early league pool, whose size the feed does not publish. Through five games in all situations, Stenberg's 20.72 mph maximum sits in its bottom fifth, at the 17.9th percentile against a 21.47 mph league average. He has no bursts over 22 mph and five between 20 and 22 mph, against a league average of 7.13 through the same early-season window.

His ground covered is nearer ordinary. NHL Edge records 9.79 miles per 60 all-situations minutes over 78:27 through five games, at the 57.4th percentile; his even-strength rate is 9.93 miles per 60 minutes over 70:16, at the 47.6th, against 9.94 leaguewide. All-situations distance rose with his minutes from 2.26 miles in the opener to 2.87 in his fifth game.

The hardest shot in NHL Edge through five games, all situations, is 78.98 mph, at the 50.5th percentile; average speed is 54.0 mph, at the 43.2nd. A maximum gets more opportunities with more games, so the comparison below keeps both rookies to five. Stenberg's five all-situations shots on goal rank at the 37.7th percentile, with two high-danger and three mid-range shots through five games.

Measure and situationStenberg, 2026-27 (5 games)League average or percentileMisa, first 5 games of 2025-26
Ice time per game, all situations15:41Not available12:22
Five-on-five expected-goal share (minutes), MoneyPuck33.8% (68.8)Not available50.4% (51.2)
Five-on-five shot attempts per 60 minutes6.1 (68.8 minutes)Not available11.7 (51.2 minutes)
Top skating speed, all situations (five-game maximum), NHL Edge20.72 mph21.47 mph; 17.9th percentile21.90 mph
Distance per 60 minutes, all situations, NHL Edge9.79 miles (78:27)9.66 miles; 57.4th percentileNot available
Hardest shot, all situations (five-game maximum), NHL Edge78.98 mph76.60 mph; 50.5th percentileNot available

The rookie beside him#

Misa is a centre, Stenberg a winger. Misa averaged 12:22 in all situations and scored three points, all five-on-five, through his first five NHL games. His 10 attempts and MoneyPuck share of 50.4 percent came in 51.2 five-on-five minutes; NHL Edge's five-game maximum was 21.90 mph. Stenberg received more minutes on a team with a worse chance share, with MoneyPuck putting San Jose without Misa at 49.0 percent through his opening five games, against 34.4 without Stenberg through his.

The arguments against me#

  1. The club's five-on-five chance share without Stenberg is 34.4 percent through five games; the chance share belongs to San Jose as much as to its rookie.
  2. His best shares came in his heaviest all-situations workloads, with 43.7 and 45.2 percent over 14.4 and 15.0 five-on-five minutes; the recent direction points upward.
  3. Warsofsky praised patience and versatility, qualities these tracking measures do not score. Both of Stenberg's points are primary assists through five games.

No rating yet#

This season's Pine Net Rating does not exist yet for forwards. Stenberg also has no last-season hockey card, having played no NHL season before 2026-27.

The open Sept. 12 call concerns appearances in at least 11 of San Jose's first 13 regular-season games. Stenberg has dressed for five of five in 2026-27.

Sources: NHL Edge (2026-27); the NHL's game logs, stats feed, game sheets and shift charts; MoneyPuck's season and game-by-game files (2026-27 and 2025-26); Sheng Peng at San Jose Hockey Now (Oct. 7 and Oct. 8, 2026).

Correction, 2026-10-13

This season's Pine Net Rating does exist for forwards. Since Oct. 4 it has rated 2026-27 play against last season's replacement level, until this season's own baseline has enough players. Through five games Stenberg's season total was plus-0.49.

GSP

Filed under Sharks

More on Ivar Stenberg

His page →
San Jose has held its own for three games. One line has not.
Weekly review

San Jose has held its own for three games. One line has not.

San Jose's improved five-on-five play has left the Stenberg-Misa-Sherwood combination behind as the road trip reaches its first back-to-back.

Dom CahillOct 18, 20265 min read
San Jose changed its first line on Monday, and the other three with it
Lines

San Jose changed its first line on Monday, and the other three with it

San Jose practiced on October 12 with four new forward lines: Chernyshov-Celebrini-Smith, Stenberg-Misa-Sherwood, Marchment-Wennberg-Toffoli and Ostapchuk between Graf and either Dellandrea or Gaudette, with Barclay Goodrow off the ice with an illness and questionable for Tuesday's game against Boston. The defense pairs did not change. Ivar Stenberg, 19, replaced Chernyshov on the first power-play unit; San Jose is 2 for 13 on the power play and 0 for 7 over its last three games. Warsofsky said the club is not playing in the offensive zone enough to create offense. At five-on-five San Jose has scored 7 goals and allowed 13 through five games, with 34.3 percent of MoneyPuck's expected goals, 31st of 32 clubs; last season's full-year share was 47.6 percent. Boston, 4-2-0, has allowed 7 five-on-five goals in six games.

Grant LombardOct 13, 20264 min read
McKinney had the points, but Stenberg's minutes carry more weight
Prospects

McKinney had the points, but Stenberg's minutes carry more weight

Cole McKinney had five points in two Michigan games. Ivar Stenberg's climb to fourth of twelve San Jose forwards in ice time is the thing to hold onto, and the board's one move put Luca Cagnoni fifth.

Dom CahillOct 13, 20261 min read

On the record

Called Shots →
OpenJun 24, 2026

Ivar Stenberg is an NHL player in 2026-27, full stop, with rookie output around 50-plus points.

Test runs October through April. He signed his entry-level deal July 3 and every published opening-night projection has him in the top nine, but role is not production and the number is the bet. One anchor projection lands under it, at roughly 48.

Latest on the Sharks

The whole beat →
San Jose has led by two in the third four times and won none in regulation
Post-game

San Jose has led by two in the third four times and won none in regulation

San Jose's repeated third-period trouble now accompanies better five-on-five play, with the Celebrini line driving the improvement at Detroit.

Dom CahillOct 18, 20264 min read
Trouba is a mile an hour slower than a year ago. His shot is not.
Player deep dive

Trouba is a mile an hour slower than a year ago. His shot is not.

Jacob Trouba has not gone over 20 mph in eight games for San Jose, after doing it at least twice in his first eight games for Anaheim last season. His shot has not slowed, and no Sharks defenseman plays more.

Dom CahillOct 18, 20265 min read
Nurse plays half of San Jose's penalty kill, his weakest job last season
Player deep dive

Nurse plays half of San Jose's penalty kill, his weakest job last season

Darnell Nurse plays 51.3 percent of San Jose's four-on-five minutes in his games. His Edmonton penalty kill graded at the 4th percentile.

Dom CahillOct 17, 20265 min read

Earlier on the Sharks

Cagnoni went from four-fifths of the power play to half of it
Player deep dive

Cagnoni went from four-fifths of the power play to half of it

Luca Cagnoni's share of San Jose's power play has fallen to about half, and the tracking shows the same skater it showed in his three NHL games last April.

Dom CahillOct 16, 20265 min read
Chernyshov's starts haven't changed, and San Jose's chances with him have
Player deep dive

Chernyshov's starts haven't changed, and San Jose's chances with him have

Chernyshov's offensive-zone start share is unchanged and his power-play time has increased, while San Jose's share of the chances with him has fallen.

Dom CahillOct 15, 20265 min read
Sam Dickinson, year two: the rookie line that hid his best trait, and the leap that comes when the leash drops
Sharks player desk

Sam Dickinson, year two: the rookie line that hid his best trait, and the leap that comes when the leash drops

Sam Dickinson's sophomore leap, and why his rookie stats lied about him

Grab Some PineJun 19, 20265 min read