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October 15, 2026
Player deep dive

Chernyshov's starts haven't changed, and San Jose's chances with him have

Igor Chernyshov starts 72.7 percent of his five-on-five end-zone faceoff shifts in the offensive zone, the same share as last season. San Jose's five-on-five expected-goal share with him on the ice has fallen from 51.6 percent to 31.3.

DC
Dom CahillOct 15, 20265 min read
Every call on this site goes on a public ledger and gets graded. The misses stay up.
Igor Chernyshov in San Jose's teal home sweater with the shark crest, with a crowd in teal out of focus behind him.

San Jose is starting Igor Chernyshov in the offensive zone exactly as often as it did last season and giving him more of the power play, and the chances are running the other way. Through six games, the Sharks hold 31.3 percent of the five-on-five expected goals with him on the ice, against 51.6 percent over his 28 games last season.

The tracking does not explain that gap with slower legs or a weaker shot. His even-strength distance per 60 minutes is nearly unchanged, and his hardest shot through six games is 84.25 mph, against 77.16 through his first six last season.

Same starts#

MoneyPuck has 16 of his 22 five-on-five offensive- and defensive-zone faceoff starts in the offensive zone, 72.7 percent, against 72 of 99 across his 28 games last season, also 72.7 percent. His first six games last season were more sheltered still, at 78.3 percent.

The NHL's ice-time figures move the work from even strength to the power play. Per game, all-situations time is 14:25 against 15:03 over 28 games; even strength is 12:23 against 13:55; the power play is 2:00 against 1:08. His lowest all-situations total of the season was 11:03, against Edmonton on Oct. 10.

The overtime slap shot#

The Oct. 3 winner against Los Angeles was a three-on-three slap shot at 3:18 of overtime, assisted by Macklin Celebrini. NHL Edge clocked it at 84.25 mph, his hardest shot through six games of either season; through his first six last season the hardest was 77.16. His top skating speed through six games is 22.20 mph, against 21.85 through the same six last season. Both maximums are compared over six games each because a season high only rises with more games.

Edge's other comparisons cover six games this season and 28 last season. His average shot speed is 58.13 mph, the 65th percentile, against 47.60, the 21st; Edge does not publish the number of shots behind either average. Attempts at 70 mph or harder come at 0.33 per game against 0.32. Even-strength distance per 60 minutes is 10.02 miles (61st percentile, league average 9.93), against 9.96 last season (66th, league average 9.83). Six games in, those percentiles give direction and nothing more. Bursts over 20 mph dipped to 2.17 per game from 2.54.

That overtime winner closed a three-point night: an assist on Nolan Allan's goal, a backhand goal and the slap shot, all against Los Angeles. In the four games since, he has no points and four shots on goal.

Five-on-five#

MoneyPuck puts San Jose at 31.3 percent of the five-on-five expected goals in Chernyshov's 73.0 minutes and 39.4 percent with him off the ice in the same games. That is 8.1 points below the team without him, against 2.3 points above across last season's 385.1 minutes and 17.5 above in the 85.6 minutes of his first six games.

The loss is mostly on offense. On-ice expected goals for per 60 minutes fell to 1.53 from 2.99 over 28 games; against rose to 3.36 from 2.80. His own attempts per 60 barely moved, 10.7 against 10.9, while his own expected goals per 60 more than halved, to 0.43 from 0.91. His shots on goal per game, all situations, are 1.17, against 2.50 through his first six last season and 1.64 over 28.

The trio MoneyPuck has him in most is with Michael Misa and Tyler Toffoli, at 20.0 percent in 21.9 five-on-five minutes. With Celebrini and Will Smith the share is 55.6 percent in 13.2 minutes; with Mason Marchment and Smith, 30.7 percent in 11.4. Those three trios hold 46.5 of his 73.0 minutes.

The power play#

The extra power-play time has not turned into shot attempts. MoneyPuck records one attempt of his own in 11.8 five-on-four minutes this season, against 10 in 30.8 last season, and on-ice expected goals for per 60 at 6.4 against 10.2. His power-play points stand at zero, against five over 28 games.

The arguments against me#

  1. This is 73.0 five-on-five minutes. The trio with Misa and Toffoli holds 21.9 of them at 20.0 percent, close to a third; with Celebrini and Smith the share is 55.6 percent in 13.2 minutes.
  2. San Jose as a whole is at 37.3 percent at five-on-five. Chernyshov's actual on-ice goals are two for and three against in 73.0 minutes, hardly a lopsided count.
  3. His first six games last season ran at 60.1 percent, and the 28 games settled at 51.6. An opening stretch can sit a long way from where a season ends.

The card and the call#

His 2025-26 card, built on 28 games, put him in the first-line tier with a Pine Net Rating of 13.5 per 82 games, the 85th percentile of 469 league forwards; offense in the 91st percentile, defense in the 17th. This season's rating is a season total of minus-1.66 through six games, 16th of the 20 San Jose skaters it rates. Celebrini leads at plus-1.51.

The open call under this byline, filed Sept. 9, says Chernyshov averages more than 2.00 shots on goal per game across San Jose's first 20 regular-season games. He has seven in six and needs at least 34 in the next 14.

The ledger#

Faceoff starts and expected goals are MoneyPuck's, power-play time is the NHL's, and the tracking is NHL Edge's; maximums cover six games apiece.

Measure2026-27, 6 games2025-26, 28 gamesKind
Five-on-five offensive-zone faceoff start share72.7% (16 of 22)72.7% (72 of 99)Share
Power-play ice time per game2:001:08Rate
Even-strength distance per 60 minutes10.02 miles9.96 milesRate
Bursts over 20 mph per game2.172.54Rate
Average shot speed58.13 mph47.60 mphAverage
Top skating speed22.20 mph21.85 mph (first 6 games)Six-game maximum
Hardest shot84.25 mph77.16 mph (first 6 games)Six-game maximum
Five-on-five expected-goal share with him on31.3% (73.0 min)51.6% (385.1 min)Share
Five-on-five expected-goal share with him off39.4%49.3%Share
His own five-on-five expected goals per 600.430.91Rate

Sources: NHL Edge (2025-26 and 2026-27); the NHL's game logs, stats feed and game summaries; MoneyPuck's season, line-combination and game-by-game files (2025-26 and 2026-27).

Filed under Sharks

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On the record

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OpenAug 27, 2026

Quentin Musty plays at least one NHL regular-season game in 2026-27, after playing zero in 2025-26.

The baseline is zero. Musty has never appeared in an NHL regular-season game, and spent all of 2025-26 with the San Jose Barracuda: 61 games, 21 goals, 24 assists, 45 points, minus-14, 168 shots, read at the American Hockey League's own skater statistics. This row is deliberately NOT the same claim as my August 12 row, which says he is off San Jose's active roster for the October 1 opener. A player can miss the opener and play fifty games, and this piece argues he does exactly that: the door that opens in September leads to a checking job he is graded poorly for, and the recall in December leads to the scoring job he is graded well for. Corey Pronman's August 18 pipeline write-up has him at above NHL average for shot and hockey sense and below NHL average for skating and compete. The in-house template is Igor Chernyshov, recalled last season for 28 games at 15:03 a night. Against the call: San Jose has fifteen forwards under contract before Musty is counted, he is waiver-exempt so a recall is never forced, Professor Hockey's August 12 board leaves him off the 21-man roster and files him as a possible later call-up rather than a lock, and the 2024-25 precedent for this organization is that a healthy first-round forward can spend a whole season one level down without ever being tried.

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