Of Alexander Wennberg's Twenty And A Half Minutes A Night, Five And A Half Came On Special Teams
The Sharks 25, No. 14. Every published lineup projection moves Wennberg off the second line and gives the job to Michael Misa. Both published power-play projections leave him exactly where he was, at the net front on the first unit, and that unit produced fifteen of his fifty-five points.
Alexander Wennberg averaged 20 minutes and 27 seconds a night for San Jose last season across 80 games. Among the club's forwards only Macklin Celebrini played more.
Take five and a half minutes off that. Three minutes twenty came on the power play, two minutes eight on the penalty kill. His even-strength rate is 14:57, third among the eight San Jose forwards who dressed at least 60 games, behind Celebrini at 17:27 and William Eklund at 15:12.
The job he is losing#
Michael Misa takes the second-line center job. Eric Stephens at The Athletic projected it on July 15, Sharks Hockey Digest projected it, Daily Faceoff's July 4 lines have Wennberg on a third line, and Professor Hockey agreed on August 13. None is a lineup card; San Jose has not opened camp.
The job in that sentence is an even-strength job, and even strength is where he was already third, on a line that started 41.1 percent of its shifts in the offensive zone. Only Goodrow at 31.5 and Adam Gaudette at 34.9 drew harder starts. Celebrini started 58.7 percent of his in the offensive zone.
The two jobs he is not#
| San Jose forward | Games | Even strength | Power play | Short-handed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macklin Celebrini | 82 | 17:27 | 3:39 | 0:11 |
| Alexander Wennberg | 80 | 14:57 | 3:20 | 2:08 |
| Will Smith | 69 | 14:48 | 3:18 | 0:03 |
| Tyler Toffoli | 79 | 12:01 | 2:56 | 0:00 |
| William Eklund | 78 | 15:12 | 2:54 | 0:25 |
| Collin Graf | 81 | 13:29 | 0:29 | 2:28 |
| Adam Gaudette | 66 | 10:28 | 0:59 | 0:00 |
| Barclay Goodrow | 82 | 9:22 | 0:03 | 1:55 |
That 3:20 is second on the whole roster, defensemen included, behind Celebrini's 3:39. Sheng Peng published opening-night units at San Jose Hockey Now on August 7, with Jack Han and Jason Demers, and put Wennberg at the net front on the first. Professor Hockey published his own on August 28 and did the same. The two lists disagree about whether Tyler Toffoli is on a power play at all. They agree about Wennberg.
Fifteen of his 55 points came there, eight goals and seven assists. Eight power-play goals is a career high by a distance: his previous best was four, and he has 32 power-play goals in 869 NHL games.
The kill is the third job. Wennberg averaged 2:08 short-handed, roughly 171 minutes across 80 games: second among San Jose forwards by total minutes, behind Collin Graf, and third by rate, behind Graf and Ty Dellandrea's 2:37. Both are true, which is why the denominator goes in the sentence.
The forecast and its two reasons#
Professor Hockey's August 13 board projects Wennberg for 40 points, down from 55, and gave two reasons in the same breath: he loses the second line to Misa, and he loses the first power-play unit.
Fifteen days later he published his opening-night units with Wennberg on the first power play.
He has not restated the 40, so it stands with half of its stated reasoning withdrawn by its author. That does not make it wrong. It does mean anybody quoting the 40 is quoting a number built partly on a claim its own source no longer makes.
The number that is the problem#
Wennberg scored his 18 goals on 93 shots, which is 19.4 percent. His career rate across 869 games and 1,044 shots is 11.4.
He has cleared 19 percent twice in twelve seasons, and those are the only two years he has scored 17 goals or more. The first was 2020-21 in Florida, 17 goals on 82 shots in 56 games. The next season in Seattle he took more shots, 95, and scored 11 of them.
Run his career rate through last season's shot total and 93 shots produces 10 or 11 goals rather than 18. Hold the rest constant and the 55 becomes something in the high forties. That is arithmetic off his own baseline rather than a projection, and it sits well above the 40 on the board.
Three arguments against me, and the first one is real#
One. The net-front job is itself a projection, and both lists have Luca Cagnoni running the point, a 21-year-old with nine NHL games. Rebuild that unit in October and Wennberg's 3:20 is the first thing that moves.
Two. Two projections agreeing on one name is thinner corroboration than it sounds. Peng has Toffoli on the first unit and Professor Hockey has him on neither, so they are describing different power plays that share a net-front forward.
Three. A third-line center here draws harder zone starts than a second-line center, not easier, and 41.1 percent was already the third-hardest of those eight. Behind Celebrini and Misa he takes more defensive-zone draws, at 46.8 percent on faceoffs, and the even-strength points can fall for reasons unrelated to finishing.
Best case#
The power play holds, the kill stays, and the 84-game schedule helps. His 55 in 80 games is a 0.69 rate, about 58 across 84, and the percentage takes seven or eight goals back out. Landing near 50 with the same defensive assignment prices the $6,000,000 as a real third-line center rather than a second-line center the club has outgrown.
The defensive case is better than his scoreboard line, too. He finished at minus 25; Hockey Reference's expected plus-minus is minus 3.1, on an even-strength on-ice save percentage of 86.4. And of the three most defensively deployed forwards above, only his relative shot-attempt share is positive, plus 1.7 against Goodrow's minus 6.9.
Worst case#
The percentage regresses, the demotion takes even-strength minutes with it, and Misa or Ivar Stenberg pushes him off the first power play by American Thanksgiving. Then a center who turns 32 on September 22 is scoring in the mid-thirties on $6,000,000 with a full no-trade clause through 2027-28, and the one job left to him is the club's worst. San Jose allowed 290 goals last season, third-most of 32.
What to watch early#
Power-play time on ice, in the first two weeks of October. Every box score publishes it by player.
Over three minutes a night through the first six or seven games and the net-front job survived the demotion, as Peng and Professor Hockey drew it. Under a minute and a half and the August 13 reasoning reached the right destination by a route its author abandoned, which makes the 40 the number to have believed.
The kill is the second tell, and it runs the other way: a short-handed rate under 1:45 says the staff has him back on a scoring line.
The stakes#
San Jose has not made the playoffs in seven seasons. The last berth was 2018-19, and last spring's 39-35-8 was the best of the rebuild.
Wennberg signed his extension on January 4, 2026: three years, $18,000,000, starting now, with a full no-trade clause for the first two. No San Jose forward spent more of last season on special teams. His rates across 80 games work out to roughly 440 minutes of them, about two hours clear of Celebrini in second.
The 55 will not repeat. What the club needs is his 39 even-strength points holding while a 19-year-old learns the job in front of him, and the two special teams that ate a quarter of his night no longer being why San Jose gives up 290 goals.
Yesterday: Luca Cagnoni got two minutes forty seven a night on San Jose's power play and nothing at all on its kill.
Sources: Hockey Reference (San Jose's 2025-26 time-on-ice, advanced and skater tables; the Wennberg and Michael Misa career pages). Erika Towne at Fear the Fin, June 15, for the contract terms and the counting line. Sheng Peng at San Jose Hockey Now, August 7, with Jack Han and Jason Demers, and Professor Hockey, August 28, for the power-play units; Professor Hockey, August 13, for the point projection. Eric Stephens at The Athletic, July 15, and Daily Faceoff's July 4 lines.
