The committee ranked three 5-3 teams, and Michigan was not one of them
Oregon, South Carolina and Florida each have two wins over teams in the committee's first top 25. Michigan has none, and three of its last four opponents are in it.
The College Football Playoff selection committee published its first top 25 on Tuesday night. Three teams in it are 5-3: South Carolina at 21, Oregon at 23 and Florida at 24. Michigan is also 5-3, and it is not in it.
The records are the same. The resumes are not. South Carolina has beaten Tennessee and Florida, both in the committee's 25. Oregon has beaten USC and Boise State, both in it. Florida has beaten Texas, seventh, and Ole Miss, 10th. Each of the three owns two wins over teams the committee ranked. Michigan owns none.
Michigan lost 20-19 to Iowa, 19th in the committee's list, 13-6 in overtime to Indiana, fourth, and 20-14 at Minnesota, which is 5-3 and unranked. Oregon lost to Oklahoma State and at Illinois, neither of them ranked. By the losses alone, Michigan's are better than Oregon's. The committee's own guidance says it weighs strength of schedule and "who a team played, not just whether it won," and what Michigan has not done is beat anybody it ranks.
Its five wins are over Western Michigan, Oklahoma, UTEP, Penn State and Rutgers, who are a combined 17-24. Western Michigan, at 6-3, is the only one with a winning record. Oklahoma is 4-4 and has beaten Texas, which makes the 17-10 win in September the closest Michigan has come to a ranked one.
The polls agree. Michigan received no votes in the AP poll or the coaches poll released Sunday. Minnesota, the team that beat Michigan and Iowa both, received votes in each.
What the four games left are worth#
Here is what makes November more than a finish. Three of Michigan's last four opponents are in the committee's top 25.
| Opponent | Date | Site | Record | Committee |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan State | Nov. 7 | home | 2-6 | not ranked |
| Oregon | Nov. 14 | away | 5-3 | 23rd |
| UCLA | Nov. 21 | home | 8-0 | 8th |
| Ohio State | Nov. 28 | away | 6-2 | 12th |
Michigan State comes first and is the bowl game in all but name. Michigan has five wins and needs six to be eligible. The Spartans are 0-5 in the Big Ten and have lost six straight since a 2-0 start.
The other three are the resume. UCLA is unbeaten and 5-0 in the league, and its two wins over Big Ten teams with winning records were close ones, 17-15 at Oregon and 17-7 over Wisconsin. It comes to Ann Arbor. Ohio State lost 30-18 at USC on Saturday, its second loss after a 24-23 defeat at Texas in September, and in between it won 19-15 at Indiana, the only team to beat the Hoosiers.
Oregon and Ohio State play each other in Columbus on Saturday, which means one of Michigan's two road opponents will arrive with another loss before Michigan sees it.
The playoff, stated plainly#
The 2026 field is 12 teams. The champions of the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC are in automatically, along with the highest-ranked champion from the other six conferences. Seven at-large teams fill the rest, and Selection Day is December 6.
Michigan is not in the Big Ten race in any practical sense. It is 2-3 in the conference. UCLA is 5-0 and Indiana, which beat Michigan, is 5-1. Winning out gets Michigan to 6-3, and nine other Big Ten teams can still finish with a better conference record than that.
So the path would be at-large, and the most Michigan can finish is 9-3. In the two seasons of the 12-team playoff, 14 teams have received at-large berths. None of them lost three regular-season games. The most any of them lost was two. A 9-3 Michigan would be asking for something the committee has not given in either season.
The stakes this month are smaller and still real: a sixth win for a bowl, and a first win over a ranked team, which is what separates Michigan from the three 5-3 teams the committee did rank.
Carr, and the health carried forward#
Whittingham settled the quarterback question Monday. "Tommy will start this week and for the foreseeable future unless something changes," he said, per Maize n Brew. Tommy Carr was 22 of 27 for 266 yards at Rutgers and ran for two touchdowns, and the 28 points were Michigan's second-highest total of the season, behind 52 against UTEP. Across four games, Carr has completed 72.1% of his passes, per the Associated Press.
Whittingham also said he expects edge rushers Dom Nichols and John Henry Daley, both of whom missed the Rutgers game, to play against Michigan State. He had no update on offensive lineman Andrew Sprague, who has not played since Oklahoma, and said Andrew Babalola is healthy but not ready to start. Right guard Brady Norton went down at Rutgers, and Whittingham said after the game he was not sure of his availability. The Big Ten's first availability report for Saturday is the next document that will say. The kicking job is open this week, too: Trey Butkowski, Stuart Blake and Jacob Baggett are competing for it after Butkowski missed four field goals in two games, per Maize n Brew.
Whittingham said before the season that meaningful football in November would make it a successful year, as Maize n Brew recounted Monday. On Monday he said "so far this year hasn't been as good as we should have been." The committee's first ranking measured that, and the schedule leaves Michigan three chances to change it.
Called shot. Michigan appears in at least one of the committee's remaining rankings, from next Tuesday's through the final one on Selection Day. Beating UCLA at home would put a top-10 win on a resume that has none, and Oregon is already in the 25 at 5-3 with two wins over ranked teams. The other side is Minnesota: 5-3, with a win over a team the committee ranked 19th, and left out. Michigan is 0-2 this season against teams in the committee's first top 25, and an 8-4 or 7-5 finish may not be enough even with a ranked win in it.
Sources: College Football Playoff selection committee rankings, November 3, 2026, and "Selection Committee 101," November 2, 2026, collegefootballplayoff.com; AP Top 25 and AFCA coaches poll, released November 1, 2026, via CollegeFootballData and ESPN's rankings feed (receiving votes); CollegeFootballData 2026 FBS results and Michigan schedule and media feeds; CollegeFootballData 2024 and 2025 regular-season and postseason results; Michigan Athletics football schedule and roster pages, opened November 4, 2026; Maize n Brew (Von Lozon), Whittingham's Monday press conference, November 2, 2026; FOX Sports with the Associated Press, November 2, 2026; Whittingham's postgame remarks at Rutgers, October 31, 2026.
