Four pitchers would cost the Giants no draft pick, and the youngest is 30
Freddy Peralta, Clay Holmes, Kevin Gausman and Robbie Ray changed clubs during the season, so none of them can carry a qualifying offer. Three of the four lowest walk rates among the eight weighed here belong to pitchers who can.
Of the pitchers named as free-agent fits for the Giants this month, four changed clubs at the trade deadline: Freddy Peralta, Clay Holmes, Kevin Gausman and Robbie Ray. Under MLB's rule none of the four can carry a qualifying offer, so signing any of them would cost San Francisco nothing in the draft. The youngest is 30, and two of them walked batters at a higher rate in 2026 than the Giants' own staff, whose walks were the first thing Buster Posey named when he summed up the season.
Three of the four lowest walk rates in the table below belong to pitchers a qualifying offer can attach to. Their clubs have until 2 p.m. Pacific on Monday, Nov. 2, five days after Milwaukee won the World Series, to decide whether to make one. Monday is also the first day free agents can sign with any club, and Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle wrote on Oct. 12 that the collective bargaining agreement expires Dec. 1 and a lockout is expected. That would give the Giants roughly a month to shop.
They will shop with a full roster. The club took six players off its 40-man roster on Oct. 29, losing Grant McCray to Seattle and Braxton Roxby to Washington on waivers, outrighting Jason Foley, Matt Gage and Osleivis Basabe to Triple-A Sacramento, and losing JT Brubaker to free agency. That left 51 players, 16 of them on the 60-day injured list, and all 16 have to be reinstated by Monday, MLB.com reported. Eleven more have to go first, and every pitcher signed after that costs another spot.
What the staff did#
Buster Posey's summary of 2026, at the season-end news conference on Sept. 29, began with the pitchers. "We walked too many guys when we were pitching," he said, according to MLB.com. The league's numbers agree with him. Giants pitchers walked 596 of the 6,167 batters they faced, 9.7 percent, the sixth-highest rate in the majors. Across all 30 clubs the rate was 8.9 percent.
The walks came from both halves of the staff. The rotation walked 8.9 percent of 3,561 batters, against 8.3 for starters across the league, and the bullpen walked 10.7 percent of 2,606, against 9.7. By earned run average the rotation was the bigger hole: 4.48, 24th of 30, against the bullpen's 4.14, 19th.
Posey has called the bullpen a priority, Maria Guardado of MLB.com reported. The rotation has its own problem. Logan Webb, Landen Roupp and Adrian Houser will be back in 2027, Guardado wrote, and four young starters, Hayden Birdsong, Carson Whisenhunt, Trevor McDonald and Blade Tidwell, are expected to miss significant time after Tommy John surgery.
One of the relievers removed on Oct. 29 was on her list of eight bullpen locks the day before. Foley threw 26 innings in 2026 with a 4.15 ERA and walked 11 of 117 batters.
The list#
Two lists of free-agent fits have been published from the Giants beat this month: Slusser's on Oct. 12 and Guardado's on Oct. 20. They share six names. Nine pitchers named on one or both elected free agency on Oct. 29, according to the league's transaction log. Two of the nine are left off the table below: Tarik Skubal, whom Slusser called an unlikely pairing for a 97-loss club, and Pete Fairbanks, who had a 6.31 ERA in 41 1/3 innings. Clay Holmes is on it because Slusser expects him to opt out of the last year of his contract with the Cubs. Michael King, Nick Martinez and Sonny Gray, each named on one list, have no free-agency entry in the log yet.
| Pitcher | Age | 2026 | Walk rate | Pick at risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrián Morejón, LHP | 27 | 2.83 ERA in 86 IP, Padres | 8.0% of 352 | Only if offered Monday |
| Trevor Rogers, LHP | 28 | 4.03 ERA in 169 2/3 IP, Orioles | 5.6% of 699 | Only if offered Monday |
| David Bednar, RHP | 32 | 2.47 ERA in 69 1/3 IP, 35 saves, Yankees | 7.1% of 280 | Only if offered Monday |
| Raisel Iglesias, RHP | 36 | 2.55 ERA in 60 IP, 34 saves, Braves | 7.1% of 239 | Only if offered Monday |
| Freddy Peralta, RHP | 30 | 4.42 ERA in 169 IP, Mets and Rays | 8.6% of 730 | None, traded Aug. 2 |
| Clay Holmes, RHP | 33 | 3.29 ERA in 101 1/3 IP, Mets and Cubs | 10.0% of 419 | None, traded Aug. 3 |
| Kevin Gausman, RHP | 35 | 4.51 ERA in 177 2/3 IP, Blue Jays and Cubs | 6.3% of 750 | None, traded Aug. 2 |
| Robbie Ray, LHP | 35 | 3.59 ERA in 165 2/3 IP, Giants and Padres | 12.0% of 702 | None, traded Aug. 3 |
What a pick has to do with it#
MLB's rule allows a club to make a qualifying offer only to a player who spent the entire season in its organization and has never received one before. This winter's offer is a one-year deal at $23.15 million. A player who turns it down and signs elsewhere carries a cost to his new club, and for the Giants that cost is their second-highest pick in the 2027 draft plus $500,000 from their next international signing pool. MLB Trade Rumors places San Francisco in the tier of clubs that neither paid the luxury tax nor receive revenue sharing, which is the tier that pays that price.
Peralta, Holmes, Gausman and Ray all changed clubs at the deadline, so none of them can be offered one. Signing any of the four costs the Giants money and a roster spot, and nothing in the draft.
Morejón, Rogers, Bednar and Iglesias each spent the year with one club, and their clubs have until Monday to decide. Mark Polishuk of MLB Trade Rumors wrote on Oct. 11 that Rogers is a sure qualifying offer and that Bednar and Morejón are likely ones.
Which four fix the walks#
The pick-free four are 30, 33, 35 and 35. Two of them walked batters at a higher rate than the Giants' own staff did. Ray walked 12.0 percent of the 702 he faced, the highest rate on the table and higher than the 11.1 percent of 512 he walked in 22 games for San Francisco before the club traded him to San Diego for Miguel Mendez and Joniel Hernandez. Holmes walked 10.0 percent and threw 101 1/3 innings in a season a line drive broke his fibula, Slusser reported.
Gausman is the exception. His 6.3 percent walk rate is the second-lowest on the table, and his 4.51 ERA came over 177 2/3 innings at 35. Peralta's 8.6 percent sits just under the league rate, and his ERA was 4.99 in 22 starts for the Mets before it was 3.25 in 10 for Tampa Bay.
The other four walked between 5.6 and 8.0 percent of the batters they faced, below both the Giants' 9.7 and the majors' 8.9. Two of them are under 30. The one who fits the rotation is Rogers, the only starter among them and the one Polishuk called a sure offer. Morejón, the youngest, threw 86 innings in relief. He would answer Posey's stated priority and leave the rotation, the worse half of the staff by ERA, where it is.
That is the decision Monday afternoon sets up. By Monday the Giants have to be at 40, and by 2 p.m. that day the clubs of Morejón, Rogers, Bednar and Iglesias will have decided whether a draft pick comes attached to each of them. Does a club whose pitchers walked batters at a higher rate than 24 others give up a pick to stop, or does it shop first among the four who cost none?
Sources: MLB Stats API (Giants transaction log and 40-man roster; 2026 team pitching for all 30 clubs, overall and split by starters and relievers; 2026 season lines and 2025-26 transaction histories for each pitcher in the table; 2026 World Series schedule); MLB.com (Giants 40-man roster and transactions pages; Maria Guardado, October 20, October 28 and October 29; the September 29 news conference; qualifying offer glossary entry); San Francisco Chronicle (Susan Slusser, October 12); MLB Trade Rumors (Mark Polishuk, October 11).
