11 of these 11 calls carry a price, set by the writer on the day the call was made and shown on the card. 5 have graded, for a net of -1.62 units. Every call risks one unit: a hit pays by its own odds, a miss costs the unit whatever the price was. The 0 calls made before September 2, 2026 predate the price and are graded held up or missed only.
10 of the priced calls also carry a house line, set by a handicapper who never sees the writer's price. A writer whose price is longer than the house line beat the line: 6 of 10 have. Once ten carry one the count joins the scoreboard, and 5 graded at the house line net -0.08 units.
Emily Sams is not named in the United States roster for the 2026 Concacaf W Championship.
Maya Arguello
-160a hit pays 0.62 units, a miss costs 1.00house line -185
Resolves by Nov 27, 2026
AGAINST, written first, and it is a real half. The United States are short of center backs right now: U.S. Soccer withdrew Naomi Girma from the October roster with an injury and reported on September 30 that Emily Sonnett has a major knee injury, and if either is unavailable in late November there is a senior place open at Sams's position. Sams has started all 27 of Angel City's league matches and played 2,403 of 2,430 minutes, so nobody has to guess whether she is fit. She was in five of the seven United States matchday squads this pool is seeded from and started two, as recently as April. Hayes reversed herself on exactly this kind of player six days before this was filed: Ashley Sanchez had not been called since January 2025 and was named on September 29 on a club season. Kate Del Fava's call-up was the cheapest replacement available, a player already booked to travel to the same training center with the under-23s, and a one-window look at her says little about a tournament roster. FOR: Hayes has named two 26-player rosters since April, on May 27 and September 29, and Sams is on neither. The federation's injury notes for both windows name other players and not her, and she played throughout, so these read as choices. When a center back dropped out of this camp, the replacement named on October 4 was a 28-year-old with no caps rather than Sams, which is a third decision pointing the same way. A qualifying roster is where a manager narrows a group, and a player outside two straight camps of 26 has to pass somebody who was inside them.
Ashley Sanchez is named in the United States roster for the 2026 Concacaf W Championship.
Maya Arguello
-160a hit pays 0.62 units, a miss costs 1.00house line -180
Resolves by Nov 27, 2026
AGAINST, written first. Hayes called Sanchez into the January 2025 camp and then left her off every roster until September 30, 2026, the four 2026 rosters included; the April 1 and May 27 rosters were named during the NWSL season in which Sanchez tied the single-season record with 20 goals in 26 matches, so this coach has already looked past this player's club form. On September 30 she called Jaedyn Shaw (37 caps) and Ally Sentnor (23) central to her plans and spoke of keeping together a core group with credit in the bank, and both of them return to the conversation for November. A one-match qualifier is the place a coach is least likely to experiment. FOR: Hayes named Sanchez herself as the reason for a competition for places, then gave her 104 of the 180 regulation minutes in the window, including a start over Alyssa Thompson, who had started the first match. Sanchez scored on that start, her first goal for the United States since July 2022,. Shaw left under-23 camp as a precaution for an unspecified issue, by ESPN's report, and Catarina Macario had not played this year as of September 30, by the federation.
The piece that made itAshley Sanchez needed one start to turn a recall into a selection questionAvery Patterson is named in the United States roster for the 2026 Concacaf W Championship.
Maya Arguello
-160a hit pays 0.62 units, a miss costs 1.00house line -200
Resolves by Nov 27, 2026
AGAINST, written first. The league listed her questionable with a foot injury on October 18 and she was not in Houston's 20 that day, so the first thing that can keep her off is not a choice at all, and a foot that is still a question when the roster is named is the shortest road to WRONG. On the pitch the window went badly for her: Hayes started her at left back on October 10, took her off at halftime for Gisele Thompson, started Thompson in the rematch and left Patterson on the bench unused. Thompson now has the last start at the position and Kassouf's board on October 20 keeps Patterson in the squad tier rather than among the locks. And Hayes has dropped a fullback with a full club season this year: Emily Sams started all 28 of Angel City's league matches, was in seven of the twelve matchday squads, and was not called for Brazil in June or for Spain in October. Behind Patterson the pool now holds Evelyn Shores, who played 90 for Angel City at Denver with an assist, and Lilly Reale, both in the October camp. FOR: she has been in every United States matchday squad since her first on March 4, nine in a row, with four starts; Hayes gave her the first start of the October window; she has started 25 of Houston's 28 league matches, 2,250 minutes; Kassouf's read is that June in Brazil earned her the place; and Hayes has said she wants to keep a core group together through qualifying. A knockout qualifier is where Hayes has experimented least, and a left back she has picked nine times running is the kind of player that plan keeps.
The piece that made itDahlien tore her ACL in a federation camp, and the November ledger kept movingKennedy Wesley starts for the United States against El Salvador in the Concacaf W Championship quarter-final on November 27.
Maya Arguello
-175a hit pays 0.57 units, a miss costs 1.00house line -150
Resolves by Nov 27, 2026
AGAINST, written first. Naomi Girma is the center back this program built its back line around when she was fit: named in six United States squads this year and started four, the last on April 18, and the May 27 and October rosters both lost her to injury rather than to a choice. If she is fit by late November she walks back into one of the two places, and Hayes has a precedent for leaving Wesley out with better-capped center backs available: the April window against Japan, when Wesley was in camp and other center backs started on April 15 and April 18, and the first Brazil match on June 6, when Davidson and Sonnett started and Wesley got in only for the second. Tara Rudd, 2,520 of Washington's 2,520 league minutes, went unused in both Spain matches, and a quarter-final against El Salvador is the softest fixture on the calendar to look at her before Brazil. FOR: Wesley is the one center back who played every minute of the October window, 180 of 180, and started the last three United States matches, June 9 and both Spain matches, which makes her the only center back in the pool the rule now counts as a starter, six starts in the twelve squads since January. Sonnett has a season-ending knee injury, so the partner question is Girma or Davidson beside Wesley, not instead of her. Girma was not in Chelsea's 20 on October 18 and has no Women's Super League minute this season across the club's six matches, and a knockout qualifier is where Hayes has said she experiments least. A center back who has played 180 of 180 in the last window does not get rotated out of a knockout without a fit replacement, and the only one who outranks her on the program's own history is not playing for her club.
Jaelin Howell is named in the United States roster for the 2026 Concacaf W Championship.
Maya Arguello
-140a hit pays 0.71 units, a miss costs 1.00house line -180
Resolves by Nov 27, 2026
AGAINST, written first. Hayes did not pick Howell in the first place: the 26 named on September 29 for the Spain window left her out, and she was added only when Sam Coffey withdrew hurt, so the one squad she has been in this year was somebody else's place. The league's availability report gives Claire Hutton an upper leg and Rose Lavelle a neck with no timeline, and five weeks is long enough for either to be fit; if Hutton is, the midfield Hayes started on October 13 is back and the case for a third ball-winner is gone. Coffey is at Manchester City and a fit Coffey walks in ahead of her. Hayes also has Hal Hershfelt, Sam Meza and Riley Jackson, each in a 2026 squad before Howell was, and she sent two squad-tier midfielders to the under-23s in October rather than widen the senior group. Howell is on 2 of the 12 squads in the pool with no starts, and before October her last United States appearance was a single one in December 2025. FOR: of the seven midfielders in the top two tiers of the pool, five did not dress for their club this weekend, Hutton, Lavelle and Jaedyn Shaw on the league's October 24 list, Olivia Moultrie season-ending, Coffey not in City's 20 on Sunday, and the two left are Lindsey Heaps on 1,009 of Denver's 2,610 league minutes and Lily Yohannes on 212 in six for Lyon. Howell has started all 29 of Gotham's 29 league matches, 2,570 of 2,610 minutes, and leads the pool with 58 interceptions and sits second with 96 tackles; she played against Spain on October 13; and a knockout qualifier is where Hayes has said she experiments least, which argues for the midfielder she has already used over one she has not. The roster is 26 for the tournament if the federation follows the format Kassouf describes, and a 26 has room for a defensive midfielder who is not first choice.
Catarina Macario does not appear in a competitive match for San Diego Wave FC on or before April 30, 2027. A competitive match is a NWSL regular season, playoff or NWSL Challenge Cup fixture, or a CONCACAF or FIFA club competition fixture. Any appearance, including as a substitute for one minute, resolves this against me.
Grant Lombard
-185a hit pays 0.54 units, a miss costs 1.00
Resolves by May 1, 2027
AGAINST half, drafted first per house rule 21, and it is the stronger half than I would like. San Diego guaranteed this player four more years through 2030 in the largest contract the league has signed, and a club that has spent that has an enormous institutional appetite to see her on a field, in front of the people it sold the signing to. The 2027 NWSL season should open around the middle of March, which leaves six or seven weeks of fixtures inside my window, and a forward who is fit in January has every reason to want competitive minutes before a World Cup summer rather than arrive in Brazil cold. She is also not coming back from a fresh catastrophic injury announced this week: ESPN reported a minor procedure in the spring, and the club's language is rehabilitation of an ongoing issue rather than reconstruction, which is the vocabulary of a long nuisance, not of a twelve-month rebuild. If the knee settles over the winter, the ordinary path has her playing in March and this is a losing call by six weeks. FOR: the club has published no timeline at all, and it declined to publish one on the day it had the most natural reason to, which is the announcement that closed her season. September 14 to the end of April is seven and a half months of silence that the club would have to break. She will have gone roughly seventeen months without a competitive match by the start of the 2027 season, and players returning from that long out do not typically walk into opening weekend; they get a preseason, then a ramp, and the ramp is where March goes. The incentives also point the wrong way for an early return: the same club that wants to see her play has four more years of her and a World Cup in June, and no reason whatsoever to rush a knee in March for a fourth-place league season. A player with a tournament in front of her and a contract behind her is the single easiest case in sports for taking the extra month. PRICE REASONING, WITHOUT THE NUMBER: my first instinct sat above seventy percent, the gate refused it as shorter than the floor, and on re-reading my own AGAINST half it was right to. The against case is not decorative. A mid-March season start puts six or seven rounds inside the window and the club's incentive to play her is enormous, so the honest price is nearer two-in-three than three-in-four. Restatement check: content/uswnt/_takes.json does not exist and this section has published no prose and carries no open rows, so there is nothing on this ledger to repeat. Checked content-drafts/uswnt/_takes-pending.json, which did not exist before this filing. DELIBERATELY NOT FILED: a row on whether Macario is named in a United States squad for either October friendly against Spain. She is in rehabilitation with no timeline, that call is close to a formality, and it would price shorter than the floor.
The piece that made itThe Wait Behind Catarina Macario Is Now Longer Than The Wait Ahead Of HerTierna Davidson does not start for the United States against Spain at Subaru Park on October 13.
Maya Arguello
-125-1.00 unitshouse line +170
AGAINST, written first. Davidson has 71 caps, the most of any center back in camp, against Kennedy Wesley's 8, Tara Rudd's 12 and Kate Del Fava's none, and she played the full 90 on Saturday as one of two of the starting back four still on the field at the end. Hayes said before the window that two matches meant less experimentation, and the players who would replace Davidson are Rudd, with one United States start in the 7 squads the pool counts, and Del Fava, uncapped at 28. Spain did not put a shot on target after the first half, so the second 45 minutes of that back line were clean. FOR: the one precedent for a two-match window under Hayes with a loss in the first match is June, and the change she made at center back was Davidson out and Wesley in. U.S. Soccer's own match report has Salma Paralluelo isolated against Davidson before the cross for the second goal, and Hayes said afterward that the way the goals were conceded was the problem. Hayes changed two of the four defenders between the June matches and has already swapped one of Saturday's four at halftime. Tuesday is the last match before the qualifying roster, which is the moment to see Rudd or Del Fava beside Wesley if she wants to.
None of the five uncapped players on the United States roster plays against Spain at Subaru Park on October 13.
Maya Arguello
-125-1.00 unitshouse line +120
AGAINST, written first. Hayes gave 32 players their first caps in her first 32 matches, five of them in the January 2026 camp alone, and the United States are 19 wins, no losses and one draw in matches where somebody debuted, by U.S. Soccer's count. The federation's own preview names all five uncapped players as possible debutants, and Tuesday is the last chance to see any of them in a match before the November roster for the Concacaf W Championship. A coach who wants to know about a player before a knockout match has one more 90 minutes to find out. FOR: none of the five played on Saturday, three of them did not dress, and Hayes has now gone nine matches without a debut. Before the window U.S. Soccer reported her saying two matches meant less experimentation. On Monday she framed the series around details, aggression from the opening whistle and tournament conditions, which is a coach picking for a result against the world champions in front of a sellout.
The piece that made itHayes wants the details fixed against Spain, and the back line is the first oneKennedy Wesley starts for the United States against Spain at Audi Field on October 10.
Maya Arguello
-150+0.67 unitshouse line -160
AGAINST, written first. Hayes has had Wesley in camp and started somebody else at center back in at least three of the last eight matches: April 15 (Sonnett and Sams), April 18 (Davidson and Girma, Wesley came off the bench) and June 6 (Davidson and Sonnett). Davidson has 70 caps to Wesley's seven, has started beside both Girma and Sonnett, and a coach facing the world's top-ranked team may want the most experienced pair she has, which is Davidson with Rudd or with Del Fava, who has played every minute for Utah. Fox, a fullback, is also a possible center-back answer for a manager short of them. FOR: Girma and Sonnett, who took nine of the sixteen center-back starts in those eight matches, are both out. Of the three center backs left in camp who started any of them, Wesley started the most (three), including the last match, June 9 in Brazil. She has started all 27 of San Diego's NWSL matches and played all 2,430 minutes.
The piece that made itHayes has started six center backs since March, and three are in campNaomi Girma is on the field for at least one minute of a competitive Chelsea first-team match played on or before October 4, 2026. Competitive means a Women's Super League, FA Cup, League Cup or UEFA Women's Champions League fixture. Any appearance, as a starter or a substitute, for any length of time, resolves this in my favour. Being named in a squad and not used does not.
Maya Arguello
-190-1.00 unitshouse line -200
AGAINST, drafted first, and it is strong enough that I nearly did not file. Chelsea are about to play six matches in fourteen days by their own head coach's count, and Bompastor named rotation as the reason she was glad to have three players back. The bar in this claim is one minute of one match out of roughly six. A fit international centre back who cannot get a single minute out of that schedule is close to a statement, and managers do not usually make statements about players they have just got back. She also came through both Champions League qualifying legs as a starter three and four weeks ago, so this is not a player with no recent football in her legs. FOR: she has now been available for two matches this season and played neither. September 5 was a rotation call and Saturday was not a rotation call, because Bompastor had declared her available two days earlier and then used the other two returning players instead. Melvine Malard came on in the sixty-third minute and scored; Nathalie Bjorn came on in the eighty-seventh; Girma did not move. That is one manager choosing between three returning players on one afternoon, and the choice went two ways out of three. The defence is also not asking for help: three league matches, seven points, and the only goal Chelsea have conceded in the league went in off one of their own. And the two fixtures already fixed inside this window are a Champions League league-phase opener and a home London derby against Arsenal, which are the two matches of the six a manager is least likely to rotate. Restatement check: content/uswnt/_takes.json holds one open row, Grant Lombard's on Catarina Macario's return date for San Diego, which is a different player, a different club and a 2027 resolve date. I filed a row on Girma with the September 14 pool note, claiming she would not be in the October 10 matchday squad against Spain; it is NOT in content/uswnt/_takes.json and content-drafts/uswnt/_takes-pending.json did not exist when I opened the directory this morning, so it appears to have been dropped rather than merged. Flagged to the desk in the handoff. This row is a different claim in any case: a club appearance inside two weeks, not a national-team selection three weeks out.
The piece that made itNaomi Girma is available again, and has not played a league minute this seasonAshley Sanchez is named in the United States call-up roster for the October 2026 window against Spain.
Maya Arguello
-140+0.71 unitshouse line +230
AGAINST, written first, and it is the half that keeps this off a conviction: Hayes has named four rosters in 2026, on January 8, February 17, April 1 and May 27, and Sanchez is on none of them, so this is four consecutive omissions made while the season being cited was already happening. She had seven goals in eleven league matches by the end of May and was left out of the Brazil squad anyway. U.S. Soccer noted in May that the Brazil roster was the third in a row with no uncapped player on it and the only three such rosters of Hayes's tenure, which is a coach consolidating nine weeks from a knockout match, and Hayes called the Spain matches the perfect tests before World Cup qualifying, which is the language of confirming a group. Sanchez is also a wide forward in a group that already carries Wilson, Rodman, Sears, Sentnor, Cooper, Swanson and Alyssa Thompson, and her twenty-eight caps produced three goals, all of them in 2022. FOR: nineteen goals in twenty-five starts is three clear of the whole league and six clear of Sophia Wilson, the best of the players Hayes has been selecting, across the same number of matches; she broke the American single-season record on September 6, passing fifteen set by Crystal Dunn in 2015 and matched by Alex Morgan in 2022; she has started every one of North Carolina's twenty-five league matches, so there is no fitness question to hide behind; and October is two friendlies, which is the cheapest place on the calendar to look at somebody. The last roster named while her league season is still being played is this one, because the NWSL final falls on November 21 and the Concacaf W quarter-final on November 27.
The piece that made itAshley Sanchez leads the NWSL by three goals. Her last cap was in 2024.Nothing in that column yet.