8 of these 8 calls carry a price, set by the writer on the day the call was made and shown on the card. 6 have graded, for a net of -0.32 units. Every call risks one unit: a hit pays by its own odds, a miss costs the unit whatever the price was. The 0 calls made before September 2, 2026 predate the price and are graded held up or missed only.
8 of the priced calls also carry a house line, set by a handicapper who never sees the writer's price. A writer whose price is longer than the house line beat the line: 2 of 8 have. Once ten carry one the count joins the scoreboard, and 6 graded at the house line net +0.20 units.
Mark McKenzie is named on the United States roster for the Concacaf Nations League quarterfinal against Haiti (November 14 and 17, 2026). Scored off U.S. Soccer's roster announcement for the November window, including any player added before the first leg on 2026-11-14. It resolves yes if McKenzie is on that roster at any point before the first leg; it resolves no if he is not named, or is named and withdrawn before the roster is announced.
Eli Guerrero
-140a hit pays 0.71 units, a miss costs 1.00house line +185
Resolves in 10 days, Nov 14, 2026
Filed with the Thursday column. Club minutes from ESPN's per-match logs, reconciled to the 2026-10-12 pool snapshot for every player except Miles Robinson (log 19 starts, snapshot 20), whose season line is not printed.
The piece that made itMark McKenzie has not missed a Toulouse minute. Pochettino has seen that before.Matt Freese is the starting goalkeeper for the United States in the first leg of the Concacaf Nations League quarterfinal against Haiti on 2026-11-14. Scored off the federation's published Starting XI for that match. It resolves yes if Freese is the goalkeeper named in the eleven; it resolves no if any other goalkeeper starts, including if Freese is not named in the squad, is not dressed, or comes on as a substitute.
Eli Guerrero
-120a hit pays 0.83 units, a miss costs 1.00house line +240
Resolves in 11 days, Nov 15, 2026
Filed with the Canada result. Goalkeeper minutes computed from the substitution minutes in the federation's four match reports, regulation only. My prior call on Freese (Canada, 2026-10-06) was graded WRONG.
The piece that made itSchwake made it four goalkeepers in four wins, and Freese has 45 minutesA center back other than Chris Richards, Miles Robinson and Auston Trusty starts at center back for the United States in at least one of the four fall friendlies (Peru 09-26, Chile 09-29, Mexico 10-03, Canada 10-06). Scored off the published starting elevens. Resolves yes if any other player is one of the starting central defenders in any of the four; resolves no if every central-defensive start across all four goes to those three.
Eli Guerrero
-150+0.67 unitshouse line -200
Filed with the Banks piece. Roster and match list from ussoccer.com, 2026-09-17. Ages and the carry-over from the March roster checked against the 2026-09-14 pool snapshot and Goal's 2026-03-17 March roster report.
The piece that made itBanks chose Germany. The U.S. lost a center back who plays every minute.At least ten of the thirteen uncapped players on the United States fall roster (Mathis Albert, Cole Campbell, Justin Ellis, Zavier Gozo, Julian Hall, Diego Kochen, Adri Mehmeti, Peyton Miller, Neil Pierre, Brooklyn Raines, Brian Schwake, Cavan Sullivan, Frankie Westfield) win a first senior cap across the four friendlies against Peru (09-26), Chile (09-29), Mexico (10-03) and Canada (10-06). A cap is any appearance, as a starter or a substitute, in the official match report. Resolves yes at ten or more, no at nine or fewer, including where a player withdraws from camp before appearing.
Eli Guerrero
-140+0.71 unitshouse line +150
Filed with the thirteen-caps-are-cheap-starts-are-not draft. Roster, caps and the thirteen names from the U.S. Soccer release of 2026-09-20 (position list with caps and goals), opened 2026-09-24. Substitution rule from IFAB Law 3.2, opened at theifab.com 2026-09-24. Club minutes from ESPN's league statistics feed, fetched 2026-09-24. Banks precedent from the published piece banks-chose-germany. Adams quotation from ESPN, Lizzy Becherano, 2026-09-23.
The piece that made itThirteen first caps fit in four friendlies. Thirteen auditions do notMatt Freese is the starting goalkeeper for the United States against Canada on 2026-10-06. Scored off the federation's published Starting XI for that match. It resolves yes if Freese is the goalkeeper named in the eleven; it resolves no if any other goalkeeper starts, including where Freese comes on as a substitute or is not dressed.
Eli Guerrero
+110-1.00 unitshouse line +225
Filed with the Mexico result piece. Lineups, substitution minutes and the not-dressed list are from U.S. Soccer's match reports and Starting XI notes for Peru, Chile and Mexico; the Mexico pages were opened 2026-10-04. Window minutes were computed in a script that asserts 990 player-minutes per match. Freese's Belgium start is from U.S. Soccer's Belgium match report, opened 2026-10-04. Club minutes are from ESPN's league statistics, fetched 2026-10-04 (Freese 2,340 minutes, 26 starts, 26 appearances; New York City FC had played 26 league matches before camp opened on 2026-09-20). The November date is from U.S. Soccer's 2026-09-15 release.
The piece that made itThe U.S. beat Mexico 3-0 with Kochen in goal and Freese on the benchChris Richards and Auston Trusty are both in the United States starting eleven against Mexico on 2026-10-03. Scored off the federation's published Starting XI for that match. It resolves yes if both start; it resolves no if either one does not start, including as a substitute only or not dressed.
Eli Guerrero
+130+1.30 unitshouse line +120
Filed with the Chile and Ream piece. Club minutes and starts from data/pool/usmnt/2026-09-28.json, printed in a script beside the rows. Elevens and substitutions from the federation's Peru and Chile Starting XI notes and match recaps (research/clips/usmnt/2026-09-27-ussoccer-peru-lineup-and-match-report.md and 2026-09-30-ussoccer-chile-lineup-and-match-report.md); the Chile recap re-opened at ussoccer.com on 2026-09-30. Ratings from Carlisle's ESPN ratings piece, opened 2026-09-30. RESTATEMENT CHECK: the published center-back row (a center back other than Richards, Miles Robinson and Trusty starts in one of the four) is a different claim and already reads yes off Peru; this row is about one named pair in one match.
The piece that made itTim Ream retired, and the back line that started in St. Louis needed RichardsAt least nine of the eleven players who start for the United States against Mexico on 2026-10-03 held a senior United States cap before the fall window opened, meaning they are not among the thirteen players the federation listed as uncapped on 2026-09-17 (Mathis Albert, Cole Campbell, Justin Ellis, Zavier Gozo, Julian Hall, Diego Kochen, Adri Mehmeti, Peyton Miller, Neil Pierre, Brooklyn Raines, Brian Schwake, Cavan Sullivan, Frankie Westfield). Scored off the federation's published Starting XI. Yes if nine, ten or eleven starters are outside that list; no if eight or fewer are.
Eli Guerrero
+110-1.00 unitshouse line +150
Filed with the 2026-10-01 Mexico preview. Window minutes computed in a script from the substitution minutes in the federation's Peru and Chile match reports (research/clips/usmnt/2026-09-27-ussoccer-peru-lineup-and-match-report.md and 2026-09-30-ussoccer-chile-lineup-and-match-report.md), regulation only. Club figures from data/pool/usmnt/2026-09-28.json. Distinct from the live Richards-and-Trusty row resolving the same night.
The piece that made itDoes Mexico get the eleven Pochettino has not started yet?At least five of the eleven players who start for the United States against Peru on 2026-09-26 are drawn from the thirteen uncapped players named in the federation's 2026-09-17 roster notes (Mathis Albert, Cole Campbell, Justin Ellis, Zavier Gozo, Julian Hall, Diego Kochen, Adri Mehmeti, Peyton Miller, Neil Pierre, Brooklyn Raines, Brian Schwake, Cavan Sullivan, Frankie Westfield). Scored off the published starting eleven for that match. Resolves yes at five or more of those thirteen in the eleven; resolves no at four or fewer.
Eli Guerrero
+150-1.00 unitshouse line +230
Filed with the 2026-09-19 piece on the fall roster. The thirteen uncapped names and the age figures are from ussoccer.com's 2026-09-17 roster announcement, opened 2026-09-19. Club minutes are from data/pool/usmnt/2026-09-14.json, computed in a script rather than summed by hand. The neutral expectation of 11 times 13/28, which is 5.1, is what sets the threshold at five, so the call sits deliberately at the point where the age read and the orthodox read disagree.
The piece that made itThe minutes explain why Pulisic is out, but not why Weah isNothing in that column yet.