San Jose's five-on-five goals have caught up with its expected goals
A week ago San Jose's five-on-five goals were level at 4-4 while MoneyPuck gave it 32.9 percent of the expected goals. Five games in, the share is 34.3 percent and the goals are 7-13.
San Jose's five-on-five goals now sit where the model said they would, at both ends of the ice. Through five games the Sharks have scored 7 five-on-five goals on 6.40 expected and allowed 13 on 12.28 expected, in MoneyPuck's team file. Their share of five-on-five expected goals is 34.3 percent, 31st of 32 clubs, with only Philadelphia lower.
A week ago the goals told a different story. After two games, five-on-five goals were level at 4-4 while the expected-goals share was 32.9 percent, also 31st. In the three games since, at Dallas, at St. Louis and at home to Edmonton, San Jose was outscored 9-3 at five-on-five. The share moved 1.4 points in a week; the goal share moved from 50.0 percent of 8 to 35.0 percent of 20.
The record on top#
San Jose is 3-2-0. All three wins came in overtime and both losses came in regulation. Luca Cagnoni scored at 3:14 against Florida, Igor Chernyshov at 3:18 against Los Angeles and Darnell Nurse at 1:03 at St. Louis, so overtime stands at 3 goals for and none against in 7:35. Two of those games reached overtime after San Jose had led 3-0 and 4-2.
Of the 32 clubs, San Jose is the only one with a win and no regulation win. Los Angeles and Calgary have no regulation win either, and no win of any kind. Without the three overtime goals, San Jose has been outscored 17-10 in regulation.
Five games, one at a time#
Five-on-five only, San Jose first. These are sums from MoneyPuck's shot-by-shot game files, which put the five-game total against at 12.70 rather than the team file's 12.28.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Expected goals | Share | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct. 1 | Florida | home | 1.08-1.71 | 38.7% | 1-2 |
| Oct. 3 | Los Angeles | home | 1.18-2.90 | 28.9% | 3-2 |
| Oct. 5 | Dallas | road | 1.03-3.66 | 21.9% | 0-5 |
| Oct. 8 | St. Louis | road | 2.19-2.98 | 42.3% | 2-1 |
| Oct. 10 | Edmonton | home | 0.92-1.44 | 39.0% | 1-3 |
The Los Angeles game is the one where goals and expected goals parted most. San Jose won the five-on-five goals 3-2 on 28.9 percent of the expected goals. The best of the five was St. Louis at 42.3.
Celebrini and the building#
Macklin Celebrini played three games and missed two, Dallas and St. Louis. With him in the lineup, the game-file sums give San Jose 34.5 percent of five-on-five expected goals, 3.18 for and 6.05 against. Without him, 32.7 percent, 3.22 for and 6.64 against. All three games with him were at home and both without him were on the road, so this split cannot separate the player from the building. His own line is 1 goal and 5 assists in 3 games, the team lead at 6 points, 2 of them on the power play; Tyler Toffoli is next with 4 points in 5 games.
What moved#
The penalty count fell. San Jose was shorthanded 9 times in its first two games, 4.5 per game, and 7 times in the three since, 2.3 per game, killing all 7. The penalty kill is 13 of 16 for the season, 81.3 percent; last season San Jose was shorthanded 3.0 times per game, 246 in 82. The power play is 2 for 13, 15.4 percent, and has allowed a shorthanded goal. Away from five-on-five, overtime included, San Jose leads 6-4 in goals.
Yaroslav Askarov's save percentage went the other way, from .885 on 61 shots after two starts to .860 on 107 after four. Alex Nedeljkovic stopped 24 of 26 in his one start. At five-on-five the goals against are 13 on 12.28 expected, a gap of 0.72 goals over five games.
The case against#
- Five games is a small sample. The five-on-five share rests on 414 shot attempts, 177 of them San Jose's, 42.8 percent.
- The points are banked. Overtime wins count two points like any other win, and San Jose has 6 of a possible 10.
- San Jose's best five-on-five game came on the road without Celebrini, 42.3 percent at St. Louis, which cuts against any reading that the lineup alone sets the share.
- The penalty trend is three games long and rests on 7 times shorthanded.
Four clubs at .600#
Standings here use points percentage, because clubs have played four, five or six games. San Jose is at .600 through five, fifth in the Pacific behind Edmonton (.900, five games), Vegas (.833, six), Anaheim (.800, five) and Seattle (.600, five), and 10th in the Western Conference.
Four Western clubs have 6 points from 5 games: Colorado, Seattle, Nashville and San Jose. The first tiebreaker is regulation wins. Colorado and Seattle have 3 each and hold the two wild-card spots this morning, Nashville has 2, and San Jose has 0, against 27 in 82 games last season.
Six on the road#
Boston comes to SAP Center on Tuesday at 8 p.m. Pacific. The Bruins are 4-2-0, .667 through six games, with 55.0 percent of five-on-five expected goals, 11th in the league. They last played Saturday, and San Jose is the first stop of a California trip that continues at Anaheim and Los Angeles.
Thursday at 5 p.m. Pacific in Nashville opens San Jose's road trip. Nashville is .600 through five games with a 40.2 percent five-on-five share, 29th, but its power play has 6 goals on 19 chances, 31.6 percent, against a San Jose club that has just cut its penalties to 2.3 a game.
Saturday at 4 p.m. Pacific in Detroit brings a record and a model in disagreement. The Red Wings are .300 through five games and 8th in five-on-five expected-goals share at 57.0 percent, with five-on-five goals of 6-7. Their penalty kill has stopped 14 of 20 power plays, 70.0 percent.
The trip goes on to Toronto and Montreal on consecutive nights, Oct. 19 and 20, then Ottawa on Oct. 22 and Boston again on Oct. 24, six straight road games. Of San Jose's 10 remaining October games, 6 are on the road.
Sources: NHL standings, club schedules, gamecenter landing pages and stats API team, skater and goalie reports for 2025-26 and 2026-27; MoneyPuck team season files and game data.
