Grab Some Pine Pull up a bench. Bay Area sports, Michigan, and a model or two.
October 5, 2026
The preseason poll

Michigan got two guards on the Big Ten's first team and one first-place vote

The writers who cover the Big Ten picked the defending national champion third. They also put Elliot Cadeau and Trey McKenney on a five-man all-conference first team that no other school placed two players on. The same poll has landed within one spot of Michigan's Big Ten tournament seed once in the last five seasons.

GL
Grant LombardOct 5, 20264 min read
Every call on this site goes on a public ledger and gets graded. The misses stay up.
Elliot Cadeau, in Michigan's navy road jersey, guards a Northwestern player in gray who has an arm stretched toward him, on the hardwood and purple floor at Northwestern on February 11, 2026.

Twenty-eight writers who cover Big Ten basketball were asked who will win the league this season. Twenty-seven of them looked at the defending national champion and said somebody else.

(One said Michigan. The ballots were published without names this year, so that voter gets to stay anonymous.)

The poll came out Monday. The Big Ten does not publish a full preseason media poll of its own, so Adam Jardy of the Columbus Dispatch runs one, and around the league it is called the "official unofficial" poll, which is the right amount of confidence for anything written about basketball in October. Illinois is the pick to win. Michigan State is second, with nine first-place votes. Michigan is third, as high as first on that one ballot and as low as sixth on two.

Third is a fair place to put a team that won 37 games and then lost most of the men who won them. Michigan went 19-1 in the Big Ten last season, took the regular-season title by four games and won the national championship in April. Five players started at least 39 of the 40 games: Yaxel Lendeborg, Morez Johnson Jr., Aday Mara, Nimari Burnett and Elliot Cadeau. Four of the five are gone. Three of them went in the first 12 picks of the NBA draft (Lendeborg to Golden State, if you would like to keep watching him), and the head coach, Dusty May, left to coach the Dallas Mavericks.

So, fine. Third.

Then the same panel picked a five-man all-conference first team, and two of the five are Michigan guards.

Cadeau is one, with room to spare. Trey McKenney is the other, in the fifth and last spot, a few points ahead of Wisconsin's Nolan Winter. No other school has two players on that team. Illinois, the favorite, has one. Michigan State has one, Jeremy Fears Jr., who was also the choice for player of the year on 23 ballots.

(The Big Ten put out its own preseason all-conference team on Monday afternoon. It is 11 players long, and Cadeau and McKenney are both on it.)

And McKenney did not start a game last season. He played in all 40 and came off the bench in all 40. The voters looked at a sophomore with zero college starts and decided he is one of the five best players in an 18-team league. I think they are right about him. Put him next to Cadeau, count the first-place votes again, and you can work out what the panel thinks of the other three spots on the floor.

The panel's two votes say that Michigan has the best pair of guards in the conference and that the frontcourt that won the title plays in the NBA now. The one newcomer the panel noticed is Moustapha Thiam, a transfer from Cincinnati who drew four votes for transfer of the year. Brandon McCoy Jr., the five-star freshman, is out for the season with a knee injury.

Third is also a number with money attached to it. Mike Boynton, named interim coach from May's staff in June and given the job in July, signed a two-year contract whose second year has to be earned. Set aside the clauses about rules and grades, and the basketball part asks him to reach the Final Four or do two of four things. Win 24 regular-season games. Finish in the top four of the Big Ten. Win the Big Ten tournament. Reach the Sweet 16.

Finishing where the poll put him would be one of the two.

Anyway. All of that assumes the poll is good at Michigan, and for five years it has been bad at Michigan in both directions. Here is where the panel picked Michigan each fall, and the seed Michigan carried into the Big Ten tournament that March.

2021-22: picked first. Seeded eighth.

2022-23: picked third, with one first-place vote. Seeded eighth.

2023-24: picked 11th of 14. Seeded 14th.

2024-25: picked ninth of 18. Seeded third.

2025-26: picked second. Seeded first, and you know the rest.

That is one season in five within a spot of the truth, and it was the most recent one, when 25 of 28 voters picked Purdue to win the league and Purdue went 13-7. The panel's favorite has won the regular-season title once in those five seasons. (This is no knock on the 28. Michigan is on its third head coach in four seasons, and nobody's October holds up against that.)

Look at the second line again, though. The last time Michigan was picked third with exactly one first-place vote, it went 11-9 in the league.

And the last time Michigan was picked first, 13 voters put it on the top line of their ballots, and it was seeded eighth. This year there is one such ballot, with no name on it.

One is at least a smaller number.

Sources: The 2026-27 preseason poll results, panel and all-conference voting as published October 5, 2026 by Dylan Burkhardt, UM Hoops, and Alex Bozich, Inside the Hall, both members of the voting panel, including Burkhardt's account of Michigan's range across the ballots; the organizer's published sheet of the 28 ballots; Inside the Hall, October 5, 2026, for the Big Ten's own preseason all-conference team; Inside the Hall's publication of the same poll's full results each October from 2021 through 2025; ESPN for Michigan's 2025-26 record, games started by player, Big Ten conference records by season, the 2026 NBA draft order and current NBA rosters; Big Ten tournament brackets for Michigan's seed, 2022 through 2026; Michigan's official 2026-27 roster at MGoBlue.com; Sports Illustrated, July 17, 2026, for the criteria in Mike Boynton's contract.

Filed under Michigan BB

More on Elliot Cadeau

His page →
The tour

Michigan's One Tour Win Came On A Night Mega Superbet Missed Twenty-Six Threes

Michigan beat KK Mega Superbet 84-81 on August 27 in Igalo, Montenegro, to close its European tour 1-2. Both teams attempted exactly thirty-two three-pointers; Michigan made twelve and Mega made six. The three scoring columns reconcile to the margin exactly: Michigan won the three-point column by eighteen points, lost the two-point column by six (sixteen of twenty-six against nineteen of thirty-five) and lost the free-throw column by nine (sixteen of twenty-eight against twenty-five of thirty-three). Michigan shot 48.3 percent overall and held Mega to 37.3 percent, and outrebounded the club 41-35. Michigan also made twelve threes in the tour opener and lost that game by twelve, so the difference in Igalo was Mega's 18.8 percent from the arc rather than Michigan's 37.5. Trey McKenney scored a game-high 25 points on nine-of-sixteen shooting with seven rebounds; he and Elliot Cadeau scored 19 of Michigan's 22 fourth-quarter points, including a 13-0 run that turned a three-point deficit into a 77-67 lead. Cadeau had 15 points in just over seventeen minutes in foul trouble, going seven of nine from the line. J.P. Estrella scored 16 on seven-of-eleven shooting and fouled out in sixteen minutes. Michigan lost the first half 49-38 and won the second half 46-32. The Wolverines committed 21 turnovers, their third straight tour game in double figures, and blocked no shots. Brandon McCoy Jr. started and lasted one minute: about twenty seconds in he slipped driving in transition, his right leg rolling underneath him, and he was carried to the locker room without putting weight on it, per the Detroit News and 247Sports. He does not appear anywhere in Michigan's published account of the game, and the program has said only that he will continue to be evaluated. Michigan scored 245 points across the three games to its opponents' 259, and took 105 of its 199 field-goal attempts from behind the arc.

Grant LombardAug 28, 20265 min read
Michigan's One Tour Win Came On A Night Mega Superbet Missed Twenty-Six Threes
The tour

J.P. Estrella Played Thirty-Five Of Forty Minutes For A Michigan Team Down To Eight

Michigan lost the second game of its European tour 82-77 to Lithuania's National B Team on August 24 in Utena, a day after losing 96-84 to the Lithuania senior national team in Vilnius. Michigan's box score listed ten players and Michigan used eight, with Moustapha Thiam, Trey McKenney and Ricky Liburd all resting nagging injuries as a precaution and Lincoln Cosby and Jalen Reed still rehabbing. Four Wolverines played more than thirty-one minutes after none had reached thirty-one the previous night: J.P. Estrella 35:34, Quinn Costello 34:34, Oscar Goodman 32:04, Brandon McCoy Jr. 31:06. Michigan's reserves scored seven points on three-of-twelve shooting in 44:33, against forty bench points on Sunday, though Costello and Goodman had both come off the bench in Vilnius and started here. Michigan attempted forty-three three-pointers and thirty-three two-pointers, making eleven and seventeen. The Wolverines scored ten points in the third quarter and led 47-46 at halftime. Elliot Cadeau had nineteen points and eight assists in 22:09. Michigan closes the tour against Mega SUPERBET in Dubrovnik on August 27.

Grant LombardAug 25, 20264 min read
J.P. Estrella Played Thirty-Five Of Forty Minutes For A Michigan Team Down To Eight
The tour

Michigan Lost Three Starters To Fouls And The Ball Twenty-Seven Times

Michigan opened its European tour with a 96-84 exhibition loss to the Lithuania senior national team at Arena Vilnius on August 23. The Wolverines led 56-44 at halftime and by fourteen early in the third quarter, then were outscored 52-28 after the break. Michigan committed 27 turnovers and 28 fouls. Trey McKenney, Elliot Cadeau and J.P. Estrella each committed a fifth personal foul, left the floor at it and did not return, all three inside the last eight minutes. Quinn Costello led Michigan with 17 points on five three-pointers off the bench in 27:45, second on the team in minutes. Joseph Hartman played 20:58 with five assists and finished the game at point guard. Michigan's bench played 105:10 to the starters' 94:50. Azuolas Tubelis, who played three seasons at Arizona, scored 31 points on 12-of-15 shooting for Lithuania. Michigan plays the Lithuania B Team on August 24 in Utena and Mega SUPERBET on August 27 in Dubrovnik.

Grant LombardAug 24, 20264 min read
Michigan Lost Three Starters To Fouls And The Ball Twenty-Seven Times

On the record

Called Shots →
Held upAug 24, 2026

Across the three games of Michigan's European tour, Quinn Costello attempts more three-pointers than any other Michigan player.

Costello took nine of Michigan's thirty three-point attempts in game one, off the bench, made five, led the team with 17 points and played the second-most minutes on the roster while recording no assists and no turnovers. That is a shooting specialist's usage pattern, and the question this call asks is whether it was the job or the night. The case for it: a coach who wants the floor spread around Elliot Cadeau needs somebody whose only instruction is to shoot, and Costello was given 27:45 to do exactly that. What makes it losable: nine attempts is one game, Trey McKenney took six and made three, the sample is three exhibitions in five days, and a freshman who shoots five-of-nine on Sunday can shoot two-of-eight on Thursday and see the leash shorten. Rotations in August are also deliberately unstable, which is the whole reason the games are being played.

Latest on the Michigan BB

The whole beat →
Eligibility

Michigan lists 17 against a limit of 15. Last season it listed 16.

Michigan's official 2026-27 men's basketball roster now lists seventeen players, including Roddy Gayle Jr. and Kenny Noland, who are both eligible under court injunctions. The NCAA's roster limit for men's basketball at House settlement schools is fifteen. Bylaw 17.2 exempts designated student-athletes and players with a medically documented season-ending injury before the roster submission date, and Michigan's roster page for its 2025-26 title season listed sixteen. Michigan has made no statement. The roster that counts is due the day before the November 2 opener against Oakland.

Nell BartonOct 3, 20265 min read
Michigan lists 17 against a limit of 15. Last season it listed 16.
Eligibility

Two guards won in court this week, and Michigan's roster still says fifteen

Roddy Gayle Jr. won a preliminary injunction against the NCAA from the bench in Niagara County Supreme Court on September 24, with a proposed written order due within thirty days. Kenny Noland won one in Monroe Circuit Court in Indiana the day before, and the NCAA filed an emergency motion to stay it and a notice of appeal within a day. Michigan's official 2026-27 roster still lists fifteen players, which is the roster limit, and neither guard is on it. Michigan opens its exhibition schedule against Eastern Michigan on October 11 and the season against Oakland on November 2.

Nell BartonSep 26, 20266 min read
Two guards won in court this week, and Michigan's roster still says fifteen
Rotation

Michigan's roster is full at fifteen, and the two guards it wants are outside it

Michigan's official 2026-27 roster listed fifteen players on Saturday morning. The cumulative statistics sheet from the European tour lists the same fifteen. Kenny Noland, the Columbia transfer Michigan signed on August 19, is on neither, and neither is Roddy Gayle Jr., who has held a temporary restraining order since September 2. The Niagara County docket carried no decision on Gayle's injunction motion as of Saturday morning, two days after the hearing was scheduled.

Nell BartonSep 19, 20266 min read
Michigan's roster is full at fifteen, and the two guards it wants are outside it

Earlier on the Michigan BB

Eligibility

Roddy Gayle's reply brief was due Monday and the docket ends on September 11

Roddy Gayle Jr.'s reply brief in support of his preliminary injunction motion was due September 14. As of Thursday morning the Niagara County Supreme Court docket, Index No. E192685/2026, runs to 43 documents and contains no reply of any kind; the last filing by either side is an acknowledgement of service entered September 11. Justice Frank A. Sedita III was scheduled to hear the motion Thursday at 2 p.m. Eastern. Separately, Michigan's published 2026-27 roster still lists fifteen players, which is the men's basketball roster limit under NCAA Bylaw 17.2, and the adopted rule says a school at the limit may not add anyone once its roster is submitted. The one published door is an exception for a player injured before the submission date, and Michigan has a player in that position.

Grant LombardSep 17, 20265 min read
Roddy Gayle's reply brief was due Monday and the docket ends on September 11
Eligibility

Roddy Gayle Is Eligible Until September 17 And Michigan's Roster Is Already Full

Roddy Gayle Jr. sued the NCAA in Niagara County Supreme Court on August 31 and won a temporary restraining order on September 2, twelve days after the Tenth Circuit took away the class ruling that had made him eligible. The order bars the NCAA from declaring him ineligible and from punishing Michigan for playing him, and it runs until a preliminary injunction hearing on September 17 at 2 p.m. Michigan announced its non-conference schedule on September 4: three exhibitions in October and an opener against Oakland on November 2. Its published 2026-27 roster lists fifteen players, which is the roster limit, and Gayle is not one of them.

Nell BartonSep 5, 20265 min read
Roddy Gayle Is Eligible Until September 17 And Michigan's Roster Is Already Full
The frontcourt

Michigan Won A Title With Its Big Men And Flies To Lithuania Without Them

Michigan's championship frontcourt never missed a game: three men, 40 appearances each, 78.7 minutes a night between them. Its replacement is Moustapha Thiam, J.P. Estrella and Jalen Reed, and Reed has played 14 of LSU's last 64 games. The plane leaves in six days, the first exhibition is in eight, and the opener against Oakland is 80 days out.

Nell BartonAug 15, 20266 min read
Michigan Won A Title With Its Big Men And Flies To Lithuania Without Them