Grab Some Pine Pull up a bench.
July 25, 2026
OpenJun 24, 2026
Ivar Stenberg is an NHL player in 2026-27, full stop, with rookie output around 50-plus points.

Test runs October through April. He signed his entry-level deal July 3 and every published opening-night projection has him in the top nine, but role is not production and the number is the bet. One anchor projection lands under it, at roughly 48.

OpenJul 2, 2026
Doing both the Trouba signing and the Nurse trade is an overcommitment whose bill lands around 2029, right as the title window opens.

Either move alone was defensible; the blue line genuinely had to be fixed. Wrong if the Sharks extend the core in 2029 and can still add without subtracting. Right if that summer is spent moving Trouba or Nurse to make room. Revisit every offseason through 2029-30.

OpenJul 22, 2026
Collin Graf signs a short bridge deal in August rather than being traded before camp.

A read, not a conviction. He is the last unsigned RFA and the odd man out of an overloaded top nine, which makes him the obvious chip if San Jose adds another veteran defenseman.

Held upMay 19, 2026
Take Stenberg over Chase Reid at No. 2 overall.

Resolved June 26: San Jose took Stenberg, Reid slid to Seattle at No. 7. Evaluator rankings still have Stenberg clearly ahead a year on. The real test is Stenberg versus Reid over five years, not draft night.

Held upJun 2, 2026
Do not re-sign John Klingberg.

Resolved July 1: the Sharks let him walk. The call matched the decision. Whether it was the correct decision on the merits gets graded by Klingberg's 2026-27 season, checked at year end.

MissedJun 30, 2026
With the cap jumping to $104M, UFA defensemen get bid up and cap-dump absorption trades dry up. Priced Trouba around three years, $17M total.

Scored as a miss on magnitude, which is the honest grade. The direction was emphatically right and the consensus board (two years, $3.5M) was off by an order of magnitude, but Trouba signed four years at $33M. Being less wrong than everyone else is not being right.

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